2023 Rookie RB Analytics: Tyjae Spears

Rookie scouting season is here and everyone is starting to research and prep for their rookie drafts. In this series, I will go through my process and scout different players for the incoming 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Tulane running back, Tyjae Spears.

Background

Tyjae Spears was a four-year player and two-year starter at Tulane. In his senior season, he went off for 229 carries, 1,581 rush yards, and 19 rushing touchdowns, with 22 catches, 256 receiving yards, and 2 touchdowns. For 1,837 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns. That is a fantastic season. Tyjae’s concern was going to be his size but at the senior bowl, he measured in at 5’09″ and 204 lbs. This is fine for me but the huge part was that this gets him over a 30 BMI which is a big mark to hit for RBs. It helps keep them healthy and gives coaches more confidence to give them the ball on every down. His hype has been getting louder and louder on Twitter, especially from a lot of film analysts. Let’s see how he looks from an analytics side too. When film and analytics both like a player a lot you usually have a very good prospect on your hands.

Analytic Profile

There are five big stats I look at when prospecting QBs: best season (BS) scrimmage yards per game (SYPG), career yards per carry (C YPC), best season TD share (BS TD%), best season reception share (BS R%), and best season yards per team play (BS Y/TP). I tested all of these stats vs all RBs drafted since 2014 and their NFL fantasy points scored to determine not only which stats are most impactful but also which values lead to elite fantasy producers. 

First up is BS TD% which is the least impactful of the stats I look at but important nonetheless. Spears achieved a mark of 56.6% here, which is a hit in my model. The mark to beat is 35% and Tyjae crushes it. The next stat in terms of importance is BS SYPG, in which Tyaje had a 153.1 average. Again, this firmly beats the mark my model uses of 135. Tyjae is off to a hot start, going two for two. Next up is BS R%, this is the first miss we see in Tyjae’s profile, his best mark was a 9.1% share which does not reach my elite mark of 12% but it also does not miss my “close” or “partial credit” mark of 10%. But that is ok, you can miss one mark and still be an elite prospect, especially if you get solid draft capital.

Now we are getting to the most important marks, for BS Y/TP Tyjae was at 1.96 in his best season. This surpasses my elite threshold of 1.90 and is another hit for Spears’ profile. Last up is C YPC, you may be surprised that yards per carry has so much weight in my model and I was surprised when I saw it test so well. But, it is hard to look past the fact that a random RB is about three times more likely to be a hit if he beats my YPC mark of 6.2 than if he doesn’t. Spears comes in with a solid mark of 6.8 and puts that last green checkmark on his profile. Tyjae being able to hit four out of five production thresholds and being 200+ lbs. with a 30+ BMI gives him the potential to be a tier-one prospect for me. All he needs is second-round draft capital to reach that tier, and if he does he should be a consensus top-five or six RB in this class.

Analytical Comps

Here is a list of players who had a similar pre-draft score in my model to Tyjae Spears, but please consider that draft capital matters a lot for running backs and is easily the most important metric I use: Terrance West, James White, Dri Archer, Tevin Coleman, C.J. Prosise, Austin Ekeler, Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, James Robinson, and Tyler Badie.

Here is a table showcasing more direct analytical comps in my database to Tyjae Spears:

I currently have Tyjae at the top of my tier-three of RBs, just behind more established guys like Zach Charbonnet, Zach Evans, Sean Tucker. But in a tier with guys like Devone Achane and DeWayne McBride. Draft capital could easily push Tyjae up into the thick of tier two and I will be more than happy to do it if that is the case. But for now, with no draft capital to use, he sits around RB9 in my ranks. He has a high upside as you can see with comps like Saquon, CMC, and Ekeler but also a low floor with comps like Tyler Badie, Terrance West, and Dri Archer. The main force that separates those players is draft capital, and that helps show why it is so important for the running back position.

Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!

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