The DFF Army got together for its first analyst-only mock draft of the 2023 off-season. Here we randomly selected spots and then ran the draft in linear order, the settings are Superflex and PPR. Hopefully, this can help give you an early sense of the players you should be considering at the top of your draft and the gems you will want to target later. Check out every first-round selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick. With more rounds to come later!
1.01 – Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
Paul Patterson – @fantasyfreezer
I mean, who else could it be? Bijan Robinson has been the presumptive 1.01 of the 2023 class for the better part of two years now, so let’s not overthink this one. Bijan has everything you could possibly want in a league-winning RB prospect: prototypical size, receiving skills, elite production, and, of course, an incredibly entertaining highlight reel. He’s a projected first-round pick in the NFL draft, which has historically been a strong signal for fantasy production. Oh, and he just turned 21 in January. He’s about to hit the ground running (literally) in the NFL, and he’ll be dominating defenses for years to come.
1.02 – C.J. Stroud, QB Ohio State
Carl Churchill – @RookieWhisper
C.J. Stroud vs Bryce Young is not an easy choice to make in my opinion, especially pre-draft! Both QBs have looked like first-round talents since their Sophomore years. Both Stroud and Young have had adjusted Yards Per Attempt of at least 10. Both of these Junior play callers have had a season with over 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. All of that said, I think both are great QBs with NFL-ready skill sets. However, I couldn’t pick both, so I went with who I believe is the safer pick and that is Ohio State product, C.J. Stroud. I believe Stroud is the safer option for one reason, and that is his size. Stroud is listed at 6’3” and 218 lbs., the prototypical size for an NFL starter. There is nothing prototypical about Bryce Young’s size. He is listed as 6’0” and 194 lbs., but I doubt the height is accurate after seeing this image of Bryce Young and Stetson Bennett who is listed at 5′ 11”. Even at Young’s listed height, he is still an outlier as an NFL QB. I’m “rather safe than sorry” here at the 1.02.
1.03 – Bryce Young, QB Alabama
Doug Harrelson – @DougHarrelson
Chalk seems to be holding so far through this draft. I will take the number two quarterback on my board at this early stage with the 1.03 here. Bryce Young may lack the upside you see in guys like Will Levis or Anthony Richardson but he is the most likely to be pro-ready right out of the box. Taking Young here gives me confidence that the 1.03 that I use here will be an asset not likely to lose much value for a while. Bryce Young already possesses the ability to quickly read defenses and deliver the ball with accuracy. Those two traits will help him make the transition to the NFL faster perhaps than some of his peers. If you want to take Gibbs or one of the WRs here because of roster construction that is fine, most of the time I want to take the QB selected in the top five of the NFL draft for my Superflex teams.
1.04 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB Alabama
Jagger May – @FantasyBluechip
Taking Jahmyr Gibbs here was definitely a “chalky” pick but you shouldn’t get cute when you have one of the top-5 picks. The running back is an Alabama product that breaks the mold of the usual exports from the college juggernaut by not being a downhill bruiser with size, but he offers some of the most fantasy upside out of any of them despite that. Gibbs is an explosive runner with elite receiving ability and tons of finesse in his tool bag. Receiving is the difference between RB1s and touchdown-dependent RB2s and I’m taking the guy who can offer a safe PPR floor. Gibbs may not be a bruiser between the tackles but is still a capable rusher because he’s a smart runner with vision and understands both his blocking and using the defense’s leverage to pick through cutback lanes. Keep in mind it’s one thing being able just to see the lane, Gibbs has the explosive lateral agility to gouge defenses and rack up chunk plays
1.05 – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Ohio State
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017
Man, the 1.05 has never felt better. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is my WR1 of the class and I will smash this pick all day long. JSN is an elite prospect already, he put up 95 receptions, 1,600 yards, and nine touchdowns in a season. While playing with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson who have already proven to be capable players in the NFL. And he did all of this as a sophomore while Wilson was a junior and Olave was a senior. I mean the dude had 15 catches, 347 yards, and three touchdowns in a bowl game, again as a sophomore. Do not let his injury in 2022, or the fact that he was mainly a slot player, or that he was surrounded by elite talent to “make his job easier” dissuade you. Do you know who else played mainly from the slot and had elite talent in his WR room? Justin Jefferson. I am not saying JSN is Justin Jefferson. What I am saying is that JSN is an elite prospect, these flags do not concern me, and he should be your cemented WR1 of the class.
1.06 – Quentin Johnson, WR TCU
Jonathan Smith – @DFF_sjonathan02
With Will Levis and Anthony Richardson still on the board in a Superflex draft, a tough choice must be made by those of us with a middle first-round pick. But, is it really that tough? Both remaining, highly-regarded QBs feel boom/bust and I’m not one to take too big a risk with my first-round picks (if I can help it). I like my WRs tall and fast, and Johnson is both. He needs to refine his route tree and eat a couple of sandwiches to help him bulk up, but his hands and after-the-catch ability scream big-time contributor for my mock fantasy team.
1.07 – Anthony Richardson, QB Florida
Why Anthony Richardson? One word; ceiling. We play dynasty to win ships. Not to be a bridesmaid. While it is true Richardson is raw he has the potential to be the biggest difference-maker in this class. Richardson is being mocked as a first-rounder in almost every mock draft. Mel Kiper had him at 1.09 to Carolina. With first-round pedigree comes the assurance you will get every chance to prove yourself worthy of being an NFL starter. Richardson has not been playing quarterback very long and has some mechanical issues to iron out. His tools are second to none in this class. He is an electric athlete who ran for 654 yards and nine touchdowns last season and has a Howitzer for an arm. He just needs to learn to harness that power and improve accuracy. If you can be patient and let him develop Richardson is your man.
1.08 – Jordan Addison, WR USC
Drew Pettiford – @puma_drew
I may be alone in this thinking, but it feels like Jordan Addison is getting swept under the rug a bit as the 2023 class’s potential WR1. Don’t get me wrong, Smith-Njigba and Johnston are great, but are we forgetting what Addison has done over the past two seasons?
In his Sophomore season at Pitt, Addison edged out future first-round receiver Drake London for the Biletnikoff Award (the nation’s best receiver). He was able to haul in 100 catches, 1,593 yards, and 17 touchdowns that season. Although his numbers weren’t quite as gaudy this season, he still showed alpha ability playing with Caleb Williams at USC. He’s the type of receiver that really doesn’t have glaring weaknesses in his game, and will be able to operate in almost any offense in the NFL right away. Easy pick for me at the 1.08.
1.09 – Kayshon Boutte, WR LSU
Jared Hines – @Ship_Chaser
Boutte scored nine TDs in just six games as a sophomore in 2021 and was widely considered to be a 1st round prospect. He had that season cut short with an ankle injury but came into 2022 expected to be one of the nation’s most dominant receivers. But his junior year was largely a disappointment, working with a new QB and a new coach, putting up just 538 yards and only two TDs on 48 catches. There are numerous references to his attitude across the internet, though I don’t put much stock into such stuff as almost all WRs are whiny prima donnas. It may actually be a plus.
Boutte remains one of the most talented receivers in this class. Some have him as number one. At this early stage of the offseason in a Superflex rookie draft like this, I’d rather take a WR or RB that has question marks than a QB that does. This was largely a coin flip between Boutte and Evans for me, who indeed went next.
1.10 – Zach Evans, RB Ole Miss
Ben Winkler – @bensprinkler
With the Will Levis slide becoming increasingly harder to ignore at this point, my confidence in Zach Evans as a prospect got tested at this pick. So, consider this my flag plant on Evans as the RB3 in this class, and maybe controversially, in the same tier as Jahmyr Gibbs. Combining his raw athleticism with above-average vision and an elite understanding of angles, Evans checks all the boxes as a potential bell-cow in the NFL. There are certainly questions, as Evans struggled in pass protection and was never really utilized as a receiver in college, but I’ve seen enough hands catches on tape to feel as though he has the ability to become a decent pass catcher at the professional level. Evans will need to improve in those areas to stay on the field for third downs, but his incredible contact balance combined with a hard-nosed powerful running style gives him an elite skillset to build upon as he develops into a more well-rounded back. Give me all the Zach Evans shares towards the end of round 1; he’s a great value at this point given his upside, and pending NFL draft capital, could easily find himself in the top 12-15 of dynasty running backs by the start of next season.
1.11 – Zach Charbonnet, RB UCLA
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
I’m a big Charbonnet fan. He graded out as the second-best running back in terms of my film grades this year and would have been just behind Breece hall in last year’s class. He exhibits great footwork and contact balance along with good vision, making him one of the best all-around runners in the 2023 class. He does lack some lateral quickness and isn’t a natural pass catcher by any means but he overcomes a lot of his flaws with physicality and an ability to take on contact and fight for yards after contact. Charbonnet isn’t the fastest running back but he shows above-average burst and big play ability when he gets a head of steam.
The UCLA back flashed on tape but he also produced the numbers as well with back-to-back seasons of over 1,100 yards rushing and 10+ touchdowns. He also posted 37 receptions for 321 yards in his final season, showing his ability as a receiver.
It’s early in the process and I’m admittedly taking my guy here at the end of the first round but when Will Levis inevitably gets drafted in the first round of the NFL draft I will follow suit and take him in the late first of rookie drafts. Fading quarterbacks with first-round draft capital isn’t the play in my opinion.
1.12 – Michael Mayer, TE Notre Dame
Doc – @DocFFFN
With everyone all up in arms about the Will Levis freefall, I feel it’s justified to point out that Levis once lost a starting job to Penn State’s Sean Clifford. Levis passes the eyeball test, similar to Kyle Trask or Davis Mills, though he is admittedly more athletic than them. However, he is not athletic enough to be a real threat as a rusher in the NFL. Two good but not great seasons against the SEC on film are not convincing. Around this same time two years ago I fielded criticism for being well below consensus on Zach Wilson as well but stuck to my guns.
Alas, the pick is Michael Mayer, though Josh Downs and Sean Tucker merit consideration. An opportunity to take the best player at his position from the 12-slot is very appealing. Mayer is leaps and bounds better than the other TEs available in the 2023 draft class. He has been more productive than any other TE in college football over his three-year collegiate run. He is bigger, more athletic, and more productive than the rest of his peers. He is also a competent (not dominant) blocker in the run game.
The assumption is an owner selecting from the 12-slot has a competitive team that can afford to wait the standard TE development time. Mayer has a top-5 dynasty TE upside, which is worth waiting for. His ceiling looks like prime Zach Ertz, especially if he lands in Detroit at 16, Los Angeles at 21, or Cincinnati at the end of the first round.
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