Dynasty Analysis
Nakobe Dean came in and produced as a true freshman at Georgia, earning the team’s Co-Defensive Newcomer of the Year Award (25 tackles, 1.5 for loss, two pass breakups). He led the Bulldogs with 71 tackles (1.5 sacks) in his first season as a full-time starter as a sophomore. Dean played through a torn labrum in his shoulder that season. In 2021, Dean was a first-team Associated Press All-American and All-SEC selection after recording 72 tackles, a team-high 10.5 for loss with six sacks, two interceptions (one returned for a TD), six pass breakups, and two forced fumbles in 15 starts for the national champions.
TYLER ALLGEIER | BYU 5’11” 224 lbs. | 04/15/2000 (Age 22) Tyler Allgeier was drafted 151st overall by the Atlanta Falcons, becoming the 12th running back selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. COLLEGE PRODUCTION Tyler Allgeier was an elite producer in college and smashed nearly every threshold that I look at in my rookie model. …
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Austin III walked on the Memphis football team as a track star. He didn’t pop until the 2020 season, when he produced 63 receptions for 1,053 yards. He also hauled in the sixth-most touchdown receptions in all FBS with 11. Austin III returned a punt for a touchdown that season as well. He followed the impressive 2020 season with another 1,000-plus yard campaign. In 12 games played, the speedy receiver hauled in 74 receptions for 1,149 yards and eight touchdowns. He finished fourth in the ACC with a 22.3 percent deep-target rate, earning first-team all-conference notice.
Green Bay has now drafted two wide receivers for Aaron Rodgers within the first four rounds. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could both compete for fantasy-relevant roles in year one, despite the day three draft capital for Doubs. In this analyst’s opinion, fourth-round picks are more similar to third-round picks than they are to fifth or sixth-rounders. Targets are earned and the Packers have plenty of targets to earn. I would also point out that Watson comes with perhaps more question marks than Doubs in terms of his talent. It is not outside the realm of reasonable outcomes that Doubs could emerge as the main receiving target in this offense. There may be room for both if not.
At the NFL combine, Likely measured in at 6’4 ½” and 245 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 29.4. The only two drills he participated in at the combine were the vertical jump (36”) and the 20-yard shuttle (4.57). At his Pro Day, he ran a 4.88 40-yard dash (24th percentile), which at his height and weight equates to an 87.1-speed score (17th percentile). Likely also recorded a 124.5 burst score (85th percentile) and a college dominator of 31.4 percent (90th percentile).
Haskins did play in 2018 but redshirted after only playing in three games as a special teams player. He received the team’s Most Improved Player Award after producing 622 rushing yards and six touchdowns during the 2019 season. In a limited role in 2020, he managed to lead the team in rushing (375) with only two starts in six games. He finally served as the team’s workhorse in 2021, and it proved him and his team well. On 270 carries, Haskins turned in 1,327 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He also hauled in 18 receptions for 131 yards as well. His 20 rushing scores were the fourth-most in all of FBS in 2021 and tied for the third-most in a Michigan Wolverine season.
Strong was one of my favorite rookie RBs coming into this draft, and I was hoping he would sneak into day 2. Going in the fourth round isn’t terrible as draft capital is concerned. There may be sneaky good upside with a Patriots team that has a strong commitment to the run game. It is obviously a crowded backfield, however, with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson seemingly entrenched. There had been rumors earlier in the offseason about trading Harris, but that never happened. Strong will get a chance to compete, however, and it is well within the range of outcomes for him to rise to the top of the pecking order. I would expect this to keep him in the third round of most rookie drafts, with some owners reaching for him in the second. It is hard to see any redraft or best ball value at this time, and I am forced to lower my rankings for both Harris and Stevenson, the latter of which bums me out a bit.
Here is why Daniel Bellinger is such an intriguing prospect. It is well documented that size/speed athletes translate to the tight end position in the NFL well. Bellinger has this in spades. He recorded a 9.66 relative athletic score out of at 6’4, 253 lbs. He ran a 4.63 40-yard dash with an excellent three-cone time of 7.05. His vertical was 34.5 inches.
After growing up with NBA star Trae Young, Kolar took his talents to Iowa State after never receiving an offer from Oklahoma. He made an immediate impact after redshirting his freshman season in 2017. He hauled in 11 receptions for 137 yards and three touchdowns during his 2018 campaign. During the next three seasons, he earned many awards and accolades. Most notable were first-team All-Big 12 honors, serving as a Mackey Award finalist in 2020 and 2021, and winning the William V. Trophy (Academic Heisman). In that same span, Kolar appeared in 26 games, hauled in 157 receptions, and snagged 20 receiving touchdowns. He finishes fourth all-time in Iowa State football’s history in both career receptions (fourth) and career receiving yards (2,181), while also landing third in career touchdown receptions (23).
After redshirting the 2018 season, Ezukanma led the Red Raiders in receiving three years in a row. He accumulated 136 receptions for 2,117 yards and 14 touchdowns in those three seasons in 32 games played. He became the first Texas Tech receiver to earn first-team All-Big 12 since Michael Crabtree (2008). He also lands 15th on the all-time receiving yards record in school history.
Isaiah Spiller put together three productive (and nearly identical) seasons at Texas A&M. He took over the backfield as a freshman, pacing the team with 946 rushing yards and 10 TDs. He also added an impressive 29 receptions for 203 receiving yards. Despite the addition of track star Devon Achane to the Aggies’ backfield, Spiller’s 2020 season was essentially a rerun of 2019: 1,036 rushing yards, nine TDs, 20 receptions, 193 receiving yards. In 2021, Spiller’s junior season, Achane captured a larger percentage of the RB opportunities. However, with rushing QB Kellen Mond out of the picture, there was more work to go around. Spiller was able to crack 1,000 rushing yards once again while adding another 25 receptions.
Zamir White was the number one RB in his class coming out of high school and a top-ten national recruit. “Zeus” had torn an ACL late in his senior season, however, and then tore his other ACL in August 2018, which caused him to redshirt the fall. White returned for the 2019 season and earned the school’s David Jacobs Award for overcoming injury by playing in 13 games and rushing 78 times for 408 yards and three TDs. White started all 10 games in 2020, leading the Bulldogs with 779 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 144 carries. He also caught six passes for 37 yards. In 2021, White led the national champions with 856 rushing yards and 11 scores on 160 carries while catching nine passes for 75 yards in 15 games (12 starts).
Walker was a four-star recruit from Cordele, Georgia, and ESPN’s second-ranked recruit at his position. He opted to play for his home-state team, the Georgia Bulldogs, where he took time to develop and emerge. After three years in Athens as a rotational piece, he established himself as a starter for UGa’s 2022 national championship defense. He started all 15 games, collecting 67 tackles including 5.5 for loss and 1.5 QB sacks along with three passes defensed and a fumble recovery.
In his true freshman season, Tyrion Davis-Price contributed for the 2019 national champion Tigers, scoring six touchdowns on the ground on 64 carries for 295 yards in a reserve role. The former top-10 running back recruit led LSU with 446 rushing yards on 104 carries (8 for 47 receiving in nine games, four starts). TDP again led the Tigers with 1,003 yards and six scores rushing on 211 carries in 2021. He caught 10 passes for 64 yards as well over his 12 starts.
Pierce has a shot at competing for the RB1 spot for this team. He may start the season as an RB2/3, but there isn’t a clear-cut lead back for this team. He’s worth targeting in the middle rounds in both rookie and dynasty start-up leagues. He’s also a candidate to see some volume as a pass-catcher out of this backfield as well. It may take him a season to get rolling, but his red zone volume should be on notice early on in his career.
Jeremy Ruckert was a New York State Gatorade Player of the Year and USA Today first-team High School All-American coming out of high school. He was rated the number one tight end prospect in the nation before signing with Ohio State. As a true freshman, Ruckert played in 12 games as a reserve. In 2019, he started three games for the Buckeyes. He was an All-Conference selection in 2020 (13 – 151, five TDs). He was an honorable mention selection again this past season, setting career bests with 26 receptions for 309 yards and scoring three times. It is important to note that Ruckert played with two first-round picks in former teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, as well as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who should be selected in the first round of next year’s NFL Draft.
Bell should compete with Donovan Peoples-Jones for the WR2 spot on this team. He’s a top-20 receiver in this class, and he’ll likely be fantasy relevant early on in his career. He’s middle-round talent in both rookie and start-up leagues. You should be able to tell early on if Bell has a bright future with one of the best quarterbacks in the league slinging him the ball. In redraft leagues, he may be worth a late-round selection, but he has a lot to prove this offseason before then.
Gray is a former high school state champion in the 100-meter dash and 4×100-meter relay. He took his elite speed to the field for a University called Blinn College for two years. He came out of those two years labeled as the top junior college prospect in the country, as he hauled in 54 receptions for 877 yards and eight touchdowns in nine games played as a sophomore. Then he took his talents to SMU. In 18 career games played for the Mustangs, Gray hauled in 82 receptions for 1,251 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also accumulated 70 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just six attempts.
Rachaad White had to go the long, difficult route to get to the pros, but he earned every bit of it along the way. After committing to D2 Nebraska Kearney, he left for community college. White played two years at Mt. San Antonio College, becoming a first-team junior college All-American in 2019 (1,264 yards, 10 TDs rushing). In his first year with ASU, White led the FBS with a 10.0 YPC (42-420 in four games, three starts) average and five TDs. He also led the Sun Devils’ RBs in receiving yards that season. This past season White was a phenom and garnered second-team All-Pac-12 honors, leading the Sun Devils with 1,006 rushing yards and 15 scores on the ground and 43-456 receiving, despite missing time with a right leg injury (eight starts in 11 games played).
A talented athlete who put together tremendous productivity during the 2020 and 2021 seasons. He started to break out during the 2019 season, as he led the Jaguars with six receiving touchdowns. But his real coming-out party came in 2020. In 11 games played, he hauled in 64 receptions for 1,085 yards and eight touchdowns. His 1,085 receiving yards were the seventh-most in the nation. He decided to stay one more year, which paid off mightily as he topped nearly every 2020 number. Tolbert ranked sixth in the FBS with 1,474 yards, as he set a school record with 82 receptions to go along with eight more touchdowns. His 178 receptions and 3,140 receiving yards during his collegiate career were also school records.
The former walk-on improved each season at UCLA. He’s a former three-star wide receiver who didn’t start until the 2020 season. He started to make a name for himself, as he led the Bruins in receiving with 517 yards and five touchdowns. He followed that with an impressive 2021 campaign, hauling in 42 receptions for 725 yards and five touchdowns. He averaged an eye-popping 18.3 yards per reception during his final two seasons at UCLA.
After two seasons as the understudy at Auburn University, Willis made the best decision of his career and transferred to Liberty. He then took off and combined for 5,107 passing yards, 47 passing touchdowns, 1,822 rushing yards, and 27 rushing touchdowns in 23 games played. Willis has all the tools and upside in the world to become a solid starting quarterback in the NFL eventually. He isn’t a guaranteed product, but his ceiling is higher than any other signal-callers in this year’s draft. Willis showcases a rare combination of a strong arm and elite rushing abilities. In today’s NFL, that’s exactly what teams are looking for.
Mafe was a three-star recruit from Hopkins, Minnesota who opted to play for his home-state team, the Golden Gophers. The redshirt senior took time to develop and emerge at the University of Minnesota despite an athletic profile extraordinary in the Twin Cities. He started 13 of a possible 19 games in his last two seasons according to The Football Database, collecting 61 tackles including 15.5 for loss and 11.5 QB sacks.
Ridder has seen a sharp rise in dynasty SuperFlex ADP ever since his strong combine showing. I have done three FFPC SF startup drafts in the last two months and took him in the 20th round in one and the 9th in the most recent. I was expecting him to go in the first round and the dramatic fall of QBs in this draft does not make me feel great about the draft capital here. That said, if Ridder can learn behind Mariota, the sky could be the limit with Kyle Pitts and Drake London as cornerstone offensive weapons to play with in year two and beyond. I think this largely torpedoed Ridder’s redraft and best-ball value, but as only the second QB off the board, Ridder has a chance to become an incredible value play for both the Falcons and dynasty players. I expect him to go somewhere in the mid to late first round of SuperFlex drafts and for him to present an intriguing value in single-QB leagues somewhere in the late second to mid-third of rookie drafts.
John Metchie III is an early-declare WR that just dominated the SEC and is coming off of injury. Metchie III was good enough to start alongside fellow Alabama alumni and first-round picks Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith in 2020. This past season, Metchie was relied upon to be Bryce Young’s go-to receiver, a role he was effective in until teammate Jameson Williams began to blossom and he shared the load. Like Williams, Metchie also went down with an unfortunate ACL injury at the end of the season, just two games before Jameson did.