Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Kyler Murray
It’s time to recognize what Murray has done this season. He’s the QB1, both in total points and points/game, just ahead of Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes. Murray has massively improved as a passer, as he’s on pace for 4,260 yards and 32 touchdowns compared to 3,722 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2019.
Murray also developed into a more solid runner this season. He’s almost matched his entire rushing production for 2019, and he’s already scored eight rushing touchdowns. A solid rushing floor combined with premier passing numbers is the dream for a fantasy quarterback.
Therefore, I now have Murray as my clear dynasty QB2 behind only Patrick Mahomes. In superflex leagues, I rank Murray second overall, ahead of all other players. He’s in the same tier as Mahomes for me right now because of his legs. If you’re lucky enough to have Murray on your dynasty superflex team, you have a gem, and you shouldn’t trade him at any price.
Jerry Jeudy
In my Week 9 storylines article, I called for the Jerry Jeudy breakout in a soft matchup versus the Falcons. Well, Jeudy delivered with seven receptions on 14 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown. Jeudy’s touchdown catch came on a ridiculous route where he faked out his defender, making him look silly.
I believe that Jeudy is now the clear top receiver on the Broncos, and he will establish that spot over the rest of 2020. Even when Courtland Sutton returns to the offense in 2021, Jeudy is the star on this team. Jeudy’s ascension will leave Sutton potentially to find a new team when his contract ends after 2021.
Jeudy is now my dynasty WR19, and I think his value has plenty of room to grow from there. He’s one of the most talented rookie WR prospects in recent years, and you should get him on your team while you can still acquire him. Once this type of player has a stretch of strong games, they become impossible to buy, but there’s still a small window to strike.
Michael Pittman
In Week 8, Pittman returned from his compartment syndrome injury, although he didn’t have a significant role. Pittman only saw 58% of snaps and one target, which he caught for six yards. However, in Week 9, Pittman’s snap share increased to 87%, and he caught four of seven targets for 56 yards.
The Colts have no viable receiving weapons after an injury to Parris Campbell. T.Y. Hilton might return this week, but he’s finished as a fantasy or real-life option. The Colts’ other receivers include journeymen like Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson, neither of whom inspire confidence.
I believe that Pittman’s showing in Week 9 was the start of a trend where he rapidly becomes the Colts’ star receiver. Pittman has moved into my top 100 dynasty assets, just behind Travis Fulgham and ahead of Darius Slayton in my dynasty WR rankings. I think Pittman is the future of this team and has WR1 upside, especially if the Colts find a quarterback upgrade to Philip Rivers. Buy him now after this small value increase and get ahead of the massive value spike still to come.
Jakobi Meyers
Meyers played no role for the Patriots until Week 7. In the first five games, Meyers totaled one target, which he caught for seven yards. He wasn’t even on the active roster for a couple of the games, as he was behind N’Keal Harry, Julian Edelman, and Damiere Byrd on the wide receiver depth chart.
However, Edelman suffered an injury in Week 7, allowing Meyers to see a 79% snap share. He led the Patriots in targets, receptions, and yards, but I didn’t read too much into the performance. The entire Patriots’ offense was awful in that game, so I mostly wrote it off.
But, Meyers continued and even increased his involvement in Weeks 8 and 9. He played 98 and 99% of the offensive snaps, and he saw 10 and 14 targets. Meyers had a massive game in Week 9 versus the Jets, where he caught 12 of his 14 targets for 169 yards.
At this point, we have to treat Meyers as the Patriots’ WR1. Edelman may not return this season from his injury, and Harry has never done anything useful in the NFL. Byrd is a nice depth piece, but he’s never put up numbers like Meyers has the last two weeks. I’m not saying that Meyers carries significant dynasty value, but he’s worth adding this week for most or all of your remaining FAAB.
Fallers
Mark Andrews
At this point, it’s time to adjust with Andrews. He’s just not putting up the numbers he saw last season. Last year, Andrews caught 64 of 98 targets for 852 yards and 10 touchdowns. Through eight games, Andrews has 26 receptions on 44 targets for 297 yards and five touchdowns. While his touchdown production is at the same pace, he’s due for far fewer targets, receptions, and yards than 2019.
Oddly, Andrews has played far more snaps this season than last year. In 2019, Andrews often played fewer than 50% of offensive snaps, hitting a season-high of 57%. After the Ravens traded Hayden Hurst to the Falcons, Andrews has had more than 57% of snaps in all but one game this year, totaling a 63.5% snap share on the season.
Unfortunately, while the increased snaps are great, they’re not leading to increased production. I’m not sure how much to blame Andrews and how much blame goes to Lamar Jackson, but Andrews has dropped in my dynasty rankings. He remains my TE3 behind George Kittle and Travis Kelce, but he’s no longer challenging them in value. I have Andrews far closer in value to the next tier of Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, and Dallas Goedert than the top tier players.
Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards
I have significant concerns with both Ruggs and Edwards in dynasty formats. Ruggs played fewer snaps than Nelson Agholor in Week 9, and he saw three targets and no receptions. The Raiders haven’t given Ruggs more than five targets in any game, so they’re not using him as an offensive centerpiece.
I’m surprised that they can’t find a way to integrate their first-round pick into the offense, but I guess Jon Gruden isn’t the most creative head coach. I’m starting to worry that Ruggs will always be one of those players that’s relevant in the NFL but not for our fantasy teams. I wouldn’t panic yet, but I’m managing my expectations with Ruggs.
As for Edwards, I loved him in the draft process and coming into 2020 after Tyrell Williams went on injured reserve. However, Edwards hasn’t done anything at all, and he saw just one snap in Week 9 despite being fully healthy. I won’t altogether quit on Edwards, but I’m done assuming that his profile will carry him through. I now need to see Edwards do it on the field before giving him any significant dynasty value.
Joshua Kelley
The Chargers have made it clear that they don’t trust Kelley, no matter the injuries to their other backs. Kelley initially claimed the lead role ahead of Justin Jackson after Austin Ekeler’s injury. However, the Chargers quickly turned to Jackson as their lead back, relegating Kelley to a smaller role.
Then, the Chargers have gotten Troymaine Pope and Kalen Ballage involved in the last two weeks. Jackson suffered a mysterious injury in Week 9, but the Chargers gave Ballage more carries than Kelley, 15 to nine. Kelley has averaged a putrid 3.2 YPC in 2020, so I can’t blame the Chargers for losing faith in him.
Overall, it’s clear that if Ekeler were healthy, he’d be the only relevant running back in this backfield. The Chargers only spent a fourth-round pick on Kelley, and they still have Jackson under contract for 2021. They could easily sign a more reliable veteran running back or decide to give Jackson more work. Kelley will not have fantasy value with a healthy Ekeler, and his dynasty value has gone up in smoke in my eyes.
Devin Singletary
I already worried about Singletary after Week 8 when he first fell behind Zack Moss in snaps. However, in Week 9, everything went wrong. Singletary still had 46% of the offensive snaps, but he saw a measly two carries for one yard. Previously, Singletary had never had fewer than eight carries in any game.
Therefore, Singletary has significantly fallen in my dynasty rankings. He’s nothing more than a volatile RB3, and that’s probably a generous ranking. I truly believe that Josh Allen and his goal-line ability will limit both Moss and Singletary’s ceilings, making neither an exciting dynasty play. Do not use this as a buy-low opportunity, as I think Singletary’s value has more room to drop than to recover.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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