For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep me accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 9 Recap
How appropriate that as winter arrives my picks go on a cold streak. While we went an abysmal 5-9 on the week, the in-depth picks went 2-1 (almost 3-0 were it not for some Luton Magic) bringing those to 17-10 on the year. With 14 more games on the slate for Week 10, we’ll look to turn up the heat and get these picks cooking!
Last Week: 5-9-0
In-depth picks: 17-10-0
Overall: 71-61-0
Jaguars at Packers (-13)
Many were burned last week on a big spread when the Steelers nearly fell to the 2-7 Cowboys. I’m here to tell you to get back on that horse.
While the Jaguars also covered a large spread against the Texans last week, they did so against one of the worst defenses in the league. While Packers’ cornerback Jaire Alexander is still working through the concussion protocol, their defense is undoubtedly better than Houston’s. Look for Rodgers and Adams to tear the Jaguars to shreds.
Ravens (-7) at Patriots
I normally hate to pick my own team, but I can’t pass up value when I see it. While opponents may have figured out the Raven’s offense the past couple of weeks, their defense has certainly picked up the slack. Last week they pitched a second-half shutout against the Colts en route to a fifth-overall DVOA ranking.
This week, the Ravens draw one of the weaker offenses in the league in the New England Patriots. While Belichek may be smart enough to limit Baltimore’s offensive capabilities, I don’t believe they have the talent on offense to compete against this stingy Baltimore defense. I would advise not only taking the Ravens (-7) but Under 43.5 as well.
Minnesota at Bears (+3)
Let’s end our in-depth picks with a little Monday Night Football action, shall we?
Those who have been following me this season are well aware of my frustration with the Bears. Though they are admittedly 5-4 both in real life and against the spread, they have not demonstrated any inkling that they are a top tier team.
However, this week they get a nice respite against the 3-5 Vikings. While Minnesota has been surging as of late due to their talented running back Dalvin Cook, the rest of the team (particularly the defense) remains atrocious. The Bears, for all their flaws, do boast one of the better defenses in the league. I expect the matchup to remain close in this one, so I will happily side with the points.
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below. Any games that do not currently have lines due to COVID postponements will be supplemented before kickoff.
Colts at Titans (+1)
Buccaneers (-5.5) at Panthers
Eagles at Giants (+3.5)
Texans at Browns (-3.5)
Washington (+4.5) at Lions
Bills (+2) at Cardinals
Chargers (+2.5) at Dolphins
Broncos at Raiders (-4.5)
49ers at Saints (-9)
Seahawks (+1.5) at Rams
Bengals at Steelers (-7)
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
