Dynasty

CeeDee Lamb: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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CeeDee Lamb was a box-stuffing college prospect at Oklahoma. His Breakout Age of 19.4 ranks in the 80th percentile, while his 38.1% College Dominator ranks in the 77th percentile. Additionally, Lamb recorded a 97th-percentile College YPR and a 79th-percentile College Target Share. In other words, Lamb was highly targeted and extremely productive and efficient with the targets that he received–oh, and he did it all at a young age. To say that Ceedee Lamb was a “good” prospect would be a drastic understatement.

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Looking Ahead to Week Two

Ryan Tannehill: Still Underrated

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Ryan Tannehill revitalized his career when joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019. After taking over in Week 7 as the starting quarterback in 2019, Tannehill never looked back. From Week 7 on, Tannehill was the quarterback three with 225 fantasy points, averaging 22 points per game. The following year, he finished as the quarterback seven with 350 fantasy points in 16 games. Even after these stellar finishes, people are still doubting him. This is evident by his ADP, which, according to DFF Rankings, is the 11th quarterback off the board. I am here to tell you that you are too low on Tannehill.

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Film Study Guide: Scouting Elite Route-Runners

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Film vs Analytics is one of the contested debates in the fantasy community. Both are important and one hand washes the other. Scouting and watching film are the foundation of evaluating talent. If data was the only indicator of success, NFL scouts wouldn’t need a scouting department. They would hire a Google Intern to run algorithms for them. On the flip side, data can help you make unbiased decisions and adjust your rankings by having a macro-level view of a pool of statistics. It’s important to understand what coaches look at on the field or in training camp because they decide if a player will even see the field. Not your algorithm. Moreover, learning scouting and theory can help you understand why players perform the way they do and what makes your data sing or choke. 

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Jalen Richard OUT Indefinitely: It’s Time to Stop Sleeping on Kenyan Drake

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Earlier this week, Tashan Reed of The Athletic reported that Las Vegas Raiders’ running back Jalen Richard sustained a foot injury after returning from the COVID-19 list and will be out indefinitely. The report had zero mention of what injury Richard suffered but to be immediately labeled as “out indefinitely” I have to assume it was fairly severe. Plus, foot injuries for skill position players are never a good thing as we have seen in the recent Carson Wentz saga and with Joe Mixon in season’s past.

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Justin Jefferson: Injury Reaction

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Our hearts dropped this week as Vikings’ star Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson went down hard onto his left shoulder. Jefferson then left practice and was seen holding his wrist to support his shoulder. A classic sign of clavicle or collarbone injury. Thankfully, we didn’t have to speculate long as only a few hours later, Adam Schefter reported that Jefferson “has a sprained AC Joint” and it was considered “nothing serious, per source, but there would be further testing this weekend.” So right away, that tells us that Jefferson had an immediate radiograph or x-ray and it was determined that he did not fracture his collarbone which would have knocked him out for 6-8 weeks. 

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Startup Strategies: Drafting to Reload, Not Rebuild: Part 2 – Depth Evaluation

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Hurray for the start of Training Camps!! We can finally begin overhyping Twitter highlights while we listen to the sweet voice of Liev Schreiber give hope to Cowboys fans via Hard Knocks. So as we squeeze in a few more startups before the regular season starts, let’s dive into Part II of our Startup Strategies series. Make sure to check out Part I where I focus on drafting a strong core pick-by-pick through the first nine rounds of a real draft I participated in, and how you can take my strategy and deep dive to draft a roster competitive enough to win now without having to rebuild later. In Part II we’ll take a broader look at the full roster post-draft to evaluate depth by position and consider immediate and future roster moves needed to bring home The Ship. 

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DeVonta Smith Sprains MCL: Is Smith too Small to Play in the NFL?

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Well, it happened. Eagles rookie wide receiver DeVonta Smith left practice on Monday with an apparent knee injury. Smith had an MRI which helped diagnose him with a sprained MCL in his knee. According to reports, the injury is considered minor and he is only supposed to be out “a couple of weeks” per Ian Rapoport. 

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Soothsayers Roundtable: Quarterback Carousel

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Beware of the Ides of March, the date March 15th was viewed by the Ancient Romans as a deadline for settling debts. The year was 44 BC and the Soothsayers informed the Dictator that their readings indicated death. A soothsayer is a minor priest also known as a haruspex, otherwise known for practicing animal sacrifice and reading the remnants of the body for signs from their deities. The practice of animal sacrifice is very similar to us fantasy players praying to the fantasy gods for a player they roster to get put back in for the goal line work as they fret a close competition. Back in Ancient Rome, the dictators and government generals would often consult with the Soothsayers regarding future war campaigns.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. The NFC North is the eighth and final divisional breakdown. Check out other breakdowns by clicking on each respective division (AFC North, NFC West, AFC West, NFC South, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East) here at DFF. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Enjoy. 

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How Much Is A FFPC Dynasty Roster Spot Worth?

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How much is a dynasty roster spot worth? Or how much should it be worth? Has anyone really tried to come up with a quantitative measure that can be actionable in some way when we are managing our dynasty rosters? We have trade calculators, rankings, projections, all customizable by league settings (for the most part). But roster spots are largely ignored. When a trade is made that involves a two-for-one player exchange, a roster spot has been cleared for one owner. Or perhaps two spots in a three-for-one, although those kinds of deals are rarer.

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Joe Mixon: By the Numbers

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Volume is king in fantasy football. This could finally be the year where we see Mixon’s volume skyrocket. The Cincinnati Bengals are without their notorious touch-stealing threat, Giovani Bernard. This means all the third down work, all the goal line touches, and everything in between for Mixon. This is the first time he’ll have this opportunity in his career. From 2017 (Mixon’s rookie year) through 2019 (not including 2020 where he only played in six games), Mixon has averaged 290 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 45 targets per season. Meanwhile, in that span, Bernard averaged 280 receiving yards and 36 receptions on 50 targets per season. You take Bernard out of the equation and Mixon’s numbers essentially double. Mixon is easily looking at 300 total touches this season.

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Michael Thomas: Making Sense of His Injury Timeline

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As @DFF_Joemem mentioned in his rapid reaction article, we got the news that Michael Thomas underwent a second ankle surgery in June and likely won’t be ready to go to start the NFL season for the New Orleans Saints. This would be his second ankle surgery of the off-season as he already had surgery in January following the NFL season after sustaining a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The above is what we know for certain. What we don’t know is what exactly transpired this off-season, what exact surgeries Thomas had, and why he waited so long to have his surgery, putting his 2021 season in serious doubt. But, we can begin to put together a rough outline given his injury timeline that can help fantasy owners decide what to do with Thomas for both redraft and dynasty. 

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FFPC SuperFlex Startups: Crazy to Wait on QB?

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SuperFlex (SF) formats have become more and more popular over the last couple of years. In the FFPC Dynasty world, 42% of all startups in 2021 have been SF. This was the going rate back in 2020 as well. Before 2020, SF only made up about 11% of the total number of dynasty leagues on their site. Now it is closer to 26% and rising. I fell in love with this format and hold 19 FFPC SF dynasty squads.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC North

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. We have just two divisions remaining, and this week’s coverage will focus on the AFC North. Check out the breakdowns for the: NFC West, AFC East, NFC East, AFC South, NFC South, and the AFC West divisions here at DFF as well, with the NFC North to follow soon. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division.

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2021 Post-Hype Sleepers

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It happens every year. Players get hyped during the offseason, and lofty expectations are set for them that coming season. Inevitably, several players will fail to meet those expectations and their value will fall, and leave a sour taste in your mouth. However, as a savvy fantasy player, you can use this to your advantage to identify undervalued players. Not every player who has failed to meet expectations will rebound, but if you put some thought into it, you can identify the ones that have a strong case for a bounce back.

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Rapid Reaction: Michael Thomas’ Ankle

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Thomas injured his ankle twice during the regular season last year and was expected to undergo surgery on it as early as January of 2021. Unfortunately for his team, it looks like now he won’t be looking 100% until we hit the ⅓ mark of the season. The Saints schedule has a bye Week 6 before they head into a Monday Night Football matchup against the division-rival Seahawks in Week 7. Given the expected timeline, it’s hard for me to imagine the Saints rushing him back there for the week 5 game against WFT at about the 3 to 3.5-month mark given the uncertainty of when the surgery actually occurred in June. Expecting a push for a Week 7 return makes the most sense when projecting this early on.

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Dynasty Debates: Derrick Henry Buy or Sell

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Derrick Henry is the starting running back for the Tennessee Titans, and he may be the most polarizing single player in fantasy football right now. The 27-year-old, sixth-year back out of Alabama is currently being valued by some as an elite fantasy running back, but many others are selling now projecting his market value to plummet due to his age. The Titans have Henry under contract through the 2023 season for approximately $12M per year. However, the Titans do have a potential out following the 2021 season where they would take on only a $6M dead cap hit that they may prorate over two seasons. The Titans had considerable offensive gains when they A) enabled Arthur Smith to call plays for the offensive unit, B) named Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback, and C) drafted A.J. Brown to become the new Alpha wide receiver.

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Corey Davis: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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To get a general idea of who Corey Davis is, he was an Upside prospect out of Western Michigan. Coming into the league at 6 feet 2.8 inches, 209 pounds, and a 26.3 BMI, he qualified as an Alpha. Which is a solid start to a profile, a prospect with potential upside and Alpha size. Unfortunately for Davis, he was selected by a team that deployed a low passing volume. Which played a big part in consensus not being high on him after his rookie season where he posted 375 receiving yards on 65 targets. But the raw numbers don’t do him justice. He owned a 19.1% target share is quite impressive. To get an idea of what Corey Davis’s first season told us, here is the fellow Upside Alpha’s who posted a target share within 3% of Corey Davis’ 19.1%.

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Five Late-Round Rookies to Monitor

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The NFL season is almost upon us with less than two weeks left until Training Camps. The time to pilfer the waiver wire for any free talent before they gain value from camp buzz is right now. Some known commodities might make a splash, but owners are hoping to cash in on the next James Robinson or Phillip Lindsay to win now or trade while their value is high. We’ll look at team depth charts and scouting reports to highlight six rookies that are either going undrafted in rookie drafts or can be bought during late rounds of startups.

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