Dynasty

DFF: Fantasy Fact or Cap

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Welcome back to this week’s edition of Fantasy Fact or Cap for Dynasty Football Factory, the article with hot questions and even hotter answers. I’m your host, Matt Ward, and I have a laundry list of trending narratives to break down for you today. Without further ado, let’s look at some of the most talked-about topics in fantasy football and decipher whether they are fact or straight cap.

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George Kittle to IR: Rapid Reaction

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All-Pro tight end George Kittle’s on-field influence is undeniable. Unfortunately, he won’t be suiting up again until Week 7, at the earliest. A soft-tissue injury to Kittle’s calf has resulted in a surprising three-game stint on injured reserve after playing 92% of the 49ers’ snaps against the Seahawks in Week 4. It was unclear when Kittle sustained the damage.

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Kyle Pitts Managers: R-E-L-A-X

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For all of you freaking out about Kyle Pitts’s performance so far this season, let’s take a page out of Aaron Rodgers’s playbook and relax. Kyle Pitts is a physical beast. Let’s start this conversation off with that fact. There’s never been a prospect like him coming out of the college ranks and I was lucky enough to write about him when his name was called in April. His production was out of this world as a Florida Gator and while he has yet to see that type of output in the NFL, this week versus the Jets is when we’ll see why Atlanta used the fourth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on him. “But Heady, you say, he is only the 18th best tight end in fantasy right now!” Keyphrase my mafiosos, “right now”, after this week, he should be well on his way to a top-10 finish on the year. He is a sure-fire start for me in all formats, someone you do not want to sleep on and I am here to tell you why.

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FFPC Dynasty & Redraft Series: Week 5

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I am prepared to say that after around almost 20 years of playing fantasy football, I have never been more wrong on any single take than I was on Brandon Aiyuk vs. Deebo Samuel. In last week’s column, I said that I felt comfortable trusting Aiyuk from here on out. Sigh. It is almost as frustrating as watching Trevor Lawrence take a step forward last Thursday while I pondered just how heavy the Chark damage would be. Somebody referred to James Robinson as a bowling ball of a running back, and I would have to agree after watching how he broke Chark’s foot on the second play of the game. Sigh. Pretty soon these sighs will become screams! 

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Tom Brady: Post-Record Reaction

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Sixty-eight yards. That was all that separated Tom Brady from becoming the NFL’s all-time passing yards leader in Week 4. Brady surpassed Drew Brees with ease, taking hold of the record halfway through the first quarter. No one has more storied wins in Foxborough than Brady. After 20 years of dominance, Brady breaking the record is no surprise. Doing it against his former Patriots team and longtime coach Bill Belichick in a Buccaneers jersey seems surreal. With the record in the rearview, let’s look at the current state of the Tampa Bay franchise from a fantasy perspective.

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Dynasty Sleeper of the Week: Jaelon Darden

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As the season progresses your, typical dynasty sleeper may come fewer and farther between as we want a long-term return in our year-long format and the waiver wire isn’t just littered with these players. Otherwise, I wouldn’t need to write this. Nevertheless, there are certainly sleepers who may be rostered but quickly forgotten due to lack of production and opportunity or roster depth and youth. This edition of dynasty sleeper of the week features a young wide receiver who likely falls into this category depending on league size and roster settings.

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David Montgomery Injury: Rapid Reaction

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The original hopes after David Montgomery’s exit were that the running back had not suffered a significant injury. Those hopes rang true after an MRI confirmed a knee sprain and not an MCL/ACL tear. Montgomery is expected to return in the 2021-2022 NFL season but will miss 4-5 weeks, as reported by Dan Graziano via Twitter. Usually, a Montgomery absence would mean a spike in value and usage for Bears’ change-of-pace back Tarik Cohen. Cohen has been on the PUP list the entire season with no news of returning in the immediate future. These injuries are allowing for some intriguing windows of opportunity to open. Let’s dive in.

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DFF: Fantasy Fact or Cap

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Capitalizing on overlooked trends as a fantasy manager is paramount to building a winning roster. The instantaneous news feed many of us rely on for fantasy information can be a deafening space of white noise. Empty narratives get passed off as fact. Anyone with a social media login can affect the perception of a player. Here, I take a look at some of the hottest trending narratives in fantasy football and decipher whether they are fact or straight cap. Time to silence the echo chamber.

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Gronk Injury Reaction

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The Tampa Buccaneers Rob Gronkowski left Sunday’s Week 3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams after taking a hard, legal hit to the ribs. He went to the locker room but later returned to the game after his radiographs or x-rays were negative for a fracture. However, he did not look the same following his return and only registered one more catch finishing his day with four receptions for 55 yards.

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DJ Chark Injury: Rapid Reaction

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Not a month into the NFL season and the injury reports around the league are looking longer than grandma’s grocery list. The Jaguars have now lost two central cogs in the offensive system. DJ Chark joins rookie running back Travis Etienne on season-ending injured reserve. Chark will most likely undergo surgery to repair a fractured ankle suffered in the Jaguars’ TNF loss to the Bengals, as reported by Ian Rapoport. An already bleak outlook for a struggling Jaguars team just got darker. The offense will be forced to funnel Chark’s usage into other options. Let’s take a look at who the trickle-down will affect. 

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FFPC Dynasty & Redraft Series: Week 4

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I knew the Cleveland Browns defense was going to be tough for Justin Fields and the Bears offense to contend with, but I didn’t think it would yield one of the all-time worst performances by an offense in the history of the game. I had a lot of success in Week 3, and am beginning to see some positive separation and patterns in my dynasty leagues, but the debacle by Fields and company really hurt me. Especially in some redraft leagues.

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Dynasty Sleeper of the Week: Mekhi Sargent

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I’ve got another deep sleeper for you, one who may still even be on waivers. However, even he is not, he should be easily acquirable at his current value. The dynasty community is always in search of affordable running backs. This one comes at little to no cost and finds himself in an intriguing situation.

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Week 4 Streamers

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Week 3 is over, and it’s time to focus on your Week 4 matchups. Although it has been a crazy first three weeks of the fantasy season, there’s still plenty of time to improve your rosters. Even if your team is loaded, it’s always good to analyze your streaming options each week. Throughout this series, we will provide the best weekly options to stream at quarterback, tight end, and D/ST. Keep in mind, each streaming option will be below 50% owned, according to ESPN.

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KJ Hamler Injury: Rapid Reaction

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KJ Hamler wasn’t very valuable in dynasty leagues, to begin with as the world was watching him, hopeful that he could maintain some consistency as a deep threat. However, we did not get to see any glance of that this early on in the year. Hamler is a hold for me. You won’t get any value in a trade right now, and it’s free to stick him on your IR until next year. My long-term projection of Hamler is poor, but deep threats have a tendency to stick around the league for a while and he has the talent, he just needs a better opportunity. He’ll be a player I hope to see on a new team over the next few years and hopefully, he will fully recover and get back on the field next year.

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Week 3 Dynasty Waiver Wire Adds

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I may be a week or two late to this waiver wire add, but the Raiders seem to want Peyton Barber to be the bell cow running back while Josh Jacobs is out of the lineup. In back-to-back weeks he has had 13 carries and 23 carries. Not only is he getting carries, but he is making good use of them. He put up over 100 yards on the ground in Week 3 against a good Dolphins’ defense. Jacobs may not be fully healthy and, if he misses more time, Barber is a guy you can use in your flex. Better yet, you can try to flip him in a trade if this usage continues much longer. 

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Backfield Breakdown: Reflections After Two Weeks of the NFL Season

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We are entering Week 3 of the NFL season, and so with two weeks of information, we are starting to see how the backfields of certain offenses are taking shape. This report looks at weighted opportunity (WOPP), as well as some other metrics to help you identify buys and sells for your running back room for Week 3 and beyond. I will revisit this article at several points of the season to help you get ready for a playoff push, and ultimately a run at the championship! What is WOPP? It is a metric that apportions value to a running back opportunity (either a carry or a target). Targets are worth approximately 2.74 times the value of a rush attempt in PPR scoring, and as such, they are more valuable. 

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Six Shares to Watch After Week 2

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Unless we’re analyzing workhorse running backs or alpha wide receivers, a player’s usage can fluctuate from week to week. Some will shine and some will ruin your week. Remember, targets and opportunities are earned. In this series, I will provide weekly target shares, rushing attempt shares, and snap shares of SIX players (or groups of players) to help you understand the value of each of them and decide whether to start ‘em, roster ‘em, or trade ‘em.

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