Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Los Angeles Chargers

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). We are just a few months away from all of the offseason madness, as teams prepare for free agency and the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, we as dynasty managers need to be preparing as well. Who are we going to target in rookie drafts? Who are we going to go out and trade for? Who are we willing to give up in return? Will you go all in this season to bring home a championship? Or should you go young and prepare for the future? There’s so much to think about before September. The “offseason edition” of this series is an early look at whose stock is up and whose stock is down as we head into free agency and draft season. We will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Los Angeles Chargers. 

STOCK UP – JOSH PALMER

Going into the 2021 season, the Chargers had high hopes. Their offense, led by second-year pro quarterback Justin Herbert, was expected to carry this team into the postseason. They fell short of that mark, but the offensive unit was exceptional all year long. Much of that was due to a deep and talented wide receiver room. Keenan Allen put together another solid season. Mike Williams had the best season of his five-year career. Rookie Josh Palmer was a pleasant surprise, especially late in the season. For example, in Weeks 1-12, the Tennessee University product hauled in 15 receptions for 168 yards and one touchdown. But in Weeks 13-17, Palmer accumulated 18 receptions for 185 yards and three touchdowns. The third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft surpassed Jalen Guyton as the team’s WR3, and he has a shot to improve his stock starting in 2022. 

The biggest reasons for Palmer’s increased dynasty stock this offseason are because Allen is turning 30 years old in April, Guyton is a restricted free agent, and Williams is an unrestricted free agent looking for a large contract. Deservingly so, Williams will likely receive that large contract, and it won’t shock the league if he signs that deal elsewhere. Los Angeles has about $57M in cap space for this offseason, but Allen is the second-highest-paid player on the team, and it would be surprising to see the Chargers pay so much for two receivers over the age of 27. Guyton is a wild card, but if a team is willing to overpay for the 24-year-old pass-catcher, the Chargers could also let him walk as well. Expect some of that available cap space to go towards the defensive side of the ball, as well as bolstering the offensive line even more. 

With that in mind, imagine how much more involved Palmer will be next season. I didn’t even mention that Jared Cook, Donald Parham, and Justin Jackson are all set to hit free agency as well. Those three combined to haul in 90 receptions for 932 yards and seven touchdowns. Now let’s combine those three with Williams and Guyton’s 2021 stats. The five of them combined for 197 receptions for 2,526 yards and 19 touchdowns. It would be hard to imagine all five of them walking this offseason, but there’s a legitimate chance that could happen. Herbert is going to continue to get better, and that’s only going to make Palmer better as well. Don’t be surprised if the 22-year-old takes the league by storm next season and finishes as a WR2. Even if Williams is brought back, Palmer has low-end WR2/high-end WR3 upside. 

Other Notables: Tre’ McKitty, Justin Herbert

STOCK DOWN – Jalen Guyton (RFA)

After bouncing around the practice squad and serving as a special teams player his rookie season, Guyton has put together a couple of decent seasons in a row now. He’s now set to hit free agency as a restricted free agent, and it’s safe to say that he’s used to bouncing around different locations. After playing high school football with Kyler Murray, Guyton began his collegiate career at Notre Dame University. That was short-lived, and he ended up playing for both Trinity Valley Community College and the University of North Texas following his departure from South Bend. His inconsistent collegiate career led to him being undrafted following the 2019 draft. He then signed with the Dallas Cowboys but was waived during the final cuts. That’s when the Chargers came in and signed him to their practice squad. Needless to say, he’s seeking more money in the open market, and if a team is willing to sign him to a tender, the Chargers could let him walk.

Like I said above, Palmer surpassed him later in the season, and even if Williams walks this offseason, Guyton is at best a WR3 for this team in 2022. Keep in mind, Austin Ekeler is going to demand a ton of targets once again. So to have belief in Guyton going into next season for the Chargers may be a stretch. Let’s counter that with the possibility that he could land elsewhere. It’s hard to imagine Guyton posting numbers somewhere else that tops what he’s done the past two seasons in Los Angeles. At this point in his career, we’ve seen what he’s capable of, and we’ve seen what he can do when he’s a WR2. For instance, in 2020 Guyton played in two games that Allen was inactive for. That meant that Williams and Guyton were the top-two wide receivers for the Chargers in those weeks (Palmer was in college at the time). In those two games, Guyton hauled in three of his nine targets for 43 yards and no touchdowns. Sure, that sample size is small. But that’s all we can really work with. 

Guyton is a fine young payer, but he’s nothing to be excited about. I think he’s worthy of being rostered in a lot of dynasty leagues, but the elevated play from Palmer really puts a damper on his future outlook. Unless he becomes the WR3 for the Bills or Bengals, I’m not going to be all that excited about him next season. His dynasty stock is certainly trending down going into this offseason, and unfortunately, you may not be able to get anything out of him in a trade. If you have any Guyton shares or are looking into getting some, you better hope that Williams walks this offseason, and Allen loses a step in 2022. Otherwise, there isn’t much hope for Guyton in the dynasty world. 

Other Notables: Jared Cook (UFA), Justin Jackson (UFA)

Teams Broken Down Already: Bears, Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Browns, Buccaneers, Cardinals

Did you enjoy this article and want more Dynasty, Devy, IDP, and Redraft content? Click here for a 12-month DFF Membership. You can also follow me @dirrim23 where I love talking about all things fantasy football!