I have come to one conclusion with this 2022 Rookie Draft Class: it lacks the elite “can’t miss” talent of prior years, but has exceptional depth. The second round will produce several viable dynasty assets. Now is the time to make the moves to get yourself into the section of the draft that will provide the greatest value.
When you compare the top of this class to 2021 it clarifies the point further. Treylon Burks is a BMW 7 Series while Ja’Marr Chase is an Aston Martin One-77. Trey McBride is the Outback Special while Kyle Pitts is a dry-aged A5 Wagyu Ribeye. Breece Hall is a dart throw from six feet away while Najee Harris is a dart throw from three feet away. Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields were each thought of as top dynasty quarterbacks (QBs) for the next decade. We aren’t sure if any of these QBs from 2022 will be starters after their rookie contracts play out. We also know 2023 has elite prospects in Bryce Young, Bijan Robinson, CJ Stroud, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Kayshon Boutte. I would take these five above any of the 2022 prospects.
I feel the second round and early third will return more Dynasty value than prior years. Last year the draft started thinning out around pick 15. At that stage, you got more into your 50/50 prospects with misses like Trey Sermon, Terrace Marshall Jr., and Tylan Wallace, and hits like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kadarius Toney, and Pat Freiermuth.
Let’s see how this draft stacks up position by position for Dynasty Superflex (SF) Leagues.
Quarterback
Projected Round 1
- Sam Howell
- Matt Corral
- Kenny Pickett
- Malik Willis
Projected Round 2
- Desmond Ridder
- Carson Strong
2022 should see four first-round QBs in the NFL Draft. If you are a first-round QB you are drafted to become a starter. However, there is no consensus on dynasty value order as there was in 2021. If you ask four different people, you are likely to get four different answers. This is also likely to be a case where the top QB selected in the NFL Draft, who may be Kenny Pickett, will not be the top dynasty asset.
In single QB leagues, I may even rank Pickett last of the four. If the QB has a low likelihood of making the top 10 why waste a pick on him? He will be one of the worst starters in your dynasty league. Instead, I’d take one of the three with the elite rushing upside in Malik Willis, Sam Howell, and Matt Corral. Pickett’s college career-high rushing in a single season was 233 yards. Meanwhile, Howell (828 yards), Corral (614 yards), and Willis (944 yards) could all be Konami QBs.
In SF leagues a QB like Pickett is more functional if you believe he is more likely to have a stable job for a long time. For the record, I am not sold on Pickett in that regard either. He was a fifth-year senior who played three full seasons and had mediocre at best production until his senior year. Pickett’s ascension happened to coincide with the arrival of Jordan Addison. Addison is one of the top dynasty prospects in the 2023 class. Before you bring Joe Burrow up, he only played the one year before his breakout campaign.
Value Targets
If Willis, Howell, or Corral fall to the second round they will be of great value in SF drafts. They all have bust potential but if they secure starting jobs they’ll have high ceilings. Willis has league-winning upside. He has the arm talent and mobility of a shorter Josh Allen (Willis 6′ 220 lbs. vs. Allen 6’5” 233 lbs.). If he puts it all together as Allen did he will be a dynasty stud.
In the early dynasty rookie mock drafts, these four QBs have been drafted all over the place. In a recent mock Howell was the 1.01. I have seen him go in the second round in others. NFL Draft experts have him graded from a first to a third-rounder. The point here is there is such little separation in the four that it’s fine to trade down and take the best available and get an additional asset.
Wide Receiver
Projected Round 1
- Treylon Burks
- Garrett Wilson
- Drake London
- Jameson Williams
- Chris Olave
Projected Round 2
- David Bell
- Jahan Dotson
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Skyy Moore
- Justyn Ross
- George Pickens
- John Metchie III
Wide receivers are the strength of this class. This position is really what provides excellent depth. I developed the WR1 rating model to rank the prospects across predictive metrics like dominator, breakout age, dominator, RYPTPA, film grade, draft capital, early declare, competition score, and athleticism. I aggregate these metrics into a single WR 1 score for each prospect. This year my 1-10 are currently separated by just 26 points whereas last year they were separated by 36.7.
Value Targets
I have four prospects in my WR1 model that are currently projected as second-rounders within 16 points of the top overall prospect Treylon Burks.
Wan’Dale Robinson: 34.0% dominator, breakout age 18.7, Yr 3 RYPTPA 3.46, Early declare
David Bell: 43.5% dominator, breakout age 18.7, RYPTPA 2.44, Early declare
Skyy Moore: 43.8% dominator, breakout age 19.1, Year 3 RYPTPA 3.52, Early declare
Jahan Dotson: 42.7% dominator, breakout age 20.5, Year 3 RYPTPA 2.63, Late declare
Sources: Player Profiler, Devy Database Jerrick Backous
If you can swing a deal moving a late first for a couple of early-to-mid seconds I would rather take two shots from the group above vs. a player like Jameson Williams or Chris Olave in the late first. These types of deals can be done now but are also particularly effective during the draft. There is likely a Jameson Williams fan in your league and if he is on the board with your pick that may be the best time to strike a deal and gain more assets.
Running Back
Projected Round 1
- Breece Hall
- Isaiah Spiller
- Kenneth Walker III
Projected Round 2/3
- Kyren Williams
- Tyler Allgeier
- Rachaad White
- Zamir White
- James Cook
- Sincere McCormick
Running back is where I have seen the most consensus at the top of this class so far. Hall, Spiller, and Walker have pretty consistently been the top three. However, the top three from last year Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams most viewed as better prospects.
Value Targets
Kyren Williams is the RB I see myself targeting most right now as a value pick. He’s perfectly suited for today’s NFL with solid receiving and running skills and explosiveness in the open field. However, it is his elite pass blocking that is going to make coaches fall in love with him. Williams can make up for some poor offensive line play as the last line of defense for the quarterback. This doesn’t directly help his fantasy value but it will help him see the field a lot resulting in touches.
Tight End
Projected Round 2/3
- Trey McBride
- Isaiah Likely
- Jalen Wydermyer
2022 also has some solid tight end prospects. There is no Kyle Pitts here but both Isaiah Likely and Trey McBride had over a 2.7 RYPTPA last year. That is outstanding for a tight end.
Value Targets
Trey McBride has been showing out at the Senior Bowl. Every report I have seen is glowing with RosterWatch going so far as to say he was the best pass receiver there. He should challenge Wydermyer as the top TE in the NFL Draft. I see him going mid-to-late second round in dynasty leagues. In TE Premium leagues he will be a hotter commodity.
I also have my eye on Isaiah Likely who should be available in round three of SF dynasty drafts. Likely was a key member of the Coastal Carolina team that went 22-3 over the last two seasons. Likely stands 6’4” 245 lbs. with the quickness to create separation and physicality for YAC. He is more of a receiver than a blocker which will hurt his draft stock.
Summary
I have 18 prospects listed as viable fantasy assets who will be available in rounds two and three of dynasty drafts. I love the value projected in picks 12-17. There will be some good players available in that range not all that different in value than 7-11. If you can add an asset and trade down, this is the draft to do it. Also, you should be targeting teams that have a potential top-5 23 first-round pick. There is likely a team or two in your league already hoarding 23 firsts that you will not be able to pry away from them. You may also choose to formulate an offer where you move down in the draft but add a veteran. You may still be likely to get the player you want and if not there will be little separation.
I hope you enjoyed reading my article. My goal is to provide actionable advice you can utilize to improve your dynasty team. You can follow me on Twitter @force_fantasy.
