When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Jonathan Taylor is easily the RB1 overall this season with the upgrade to Matt Ryan from Carson Wentz.” These are the sort of questions I look to answer with my process. I make projections to ground myself and to help understand what is possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea.
First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Indianapolis Colts’ fantasy-relevant players.
Scoring: Full PPR, six-point passing touchdowns, .04 points per pass yard, 0.1 points per rush/rec yards.
The Colts’ offense as a whole should take a good step forward with Matt Ryan at the helm in my opinion. Carson Wentz was inaccurate and made poor decisions, this is the opposite of Matt Ryan. I know Ryan’s raw stats weren’t great last season but that whole team was a mess. The Colts offer a great O-Line, a great run game, and an alpha wide receiver to throw to. Over the last three seasons, the Colts have averaged a pass-to-rush play ratio of 1.11. I am projecting we will see this number regress to the league average of 1.35 and give them a value of 1.20 for 2022. The Colts had a 1.20 ratio back in 2020, with Philip Rivers as well so this number seems fair. The Colts also have averaged a pass-to-rush touchdown ratio of 1.24, while the league average is at 1.95. So, for 2022 I again push the Colts’ average towards the league average and projected 1.40 for 2022. Lastly, the Colts have averaged 61.6 plays per game since 2019, with the league average being 62.0 I projected them for an even 62 in 2022. Now that we have our volume determining numbers we can start player projections.
Matt Ryan ends up with a solid season for real football, but fairly underwhelming for fantasy football as he slots in as the QB25 in my projections. He is not a guy I am targeting in 1QB redraft leagues and even in Superflex, I would prefer him to be my QB3. The Colts are a good team, which means they should be in a lot of favorable game scripts. This leads to a lot of running Jonathan Taylor, and slow playing the clock. We do not want this for our QBs. But for the running back, it is ideal. Taylor projects to be my RB2 behind Christian McCaffrey, in part due to the situations I just mentioned. He is a great player, in a great system. But, his upside is capped due to the great presence of Nyheim Hines. I have Hines projected for 69 targets. Imagine if this team were more like the Panthers and just gave JT all of those touches, he would break the game. However, this is not the case, Taylor is still a high-end, elite RB1 and Nyheim Hines figures to be a usable flex-play.
I love Michael Pittman. He earned a 26% target share in 2021 but had a bottom-tier catchable target rate due to Carson Wentz. With Matt Ryan his target quality should improve, his target share could improve with natural player development, and then we have an elite asset on our hands. There still is not much good target competition in Indy, as you can see in my projections, so Pittman could secure a 28% target share in 2022. This ceiling warrants his high ADP and he is a player that I have been drafting at cost. Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce fall into the same boat of I have not been drafting this player. Campbell has had an injury-riddled career and has not even shown much on the field when healthy, he is pure athleticism-driven hype. Alec Pierce had a poor prospect profile and was over-drafted by the Colts, I do not believe he will be a solid target earner in the NFL thus limiting his upside. The Colts also fall short in the tight-end department. Alie-Cox figures to grab some touchdowns and should have some spike weeks where he catches two. But, he is not a big target earner so even if my strategy is to punt tight end I would be looking elsewhere.
To recap, I like the Colts’ run game and top wide receiver. This should be a team that runs often, wins a lot of games, and scores a lot of touchdowns. I am not particularly interested in Matt Ryan in redraft leagues, but I have drafted some in best ball to stack with Pittman. Taylor is my 1.02 in redraft and best ball so I, unfortunately, do not own much of him. That is not to say he is not a good pick, just that I prefer CMC at 1.01 and Taylor seldom makes it to 1.02. Nyheim Hines is a player that projects for a good average but is hard to play in redraft leagues. Predicting the weeks he has a good game is very hard so I do avoid him in that format. In best ball where your lineup is set automatically though, I like him a lot as he figures to have many spike weeks. Michael Pittman has been a big target of mine in the late thor round in both redraft and best ball. Meanwhile, I am avoiding the other pass catchers.
Previous Teams: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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