keenan allen

DFF Redraft League: Drafting from the Two Spot

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Welcome, #DFFArmy to Dynasty Football Factory’s Redraft season kickoff! This year looks to be even more competitive than last year as we added two teams to the league, bringing the total number to 14. Not only did we grow the league size, but we expanded rosters by adding a flex position as well, which makes hitting in the mid to late rounds even more important than normal.

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Entertain Offers for Justin Herbert

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Justin Herbert’s rookie season was a veritable perfect storm for the rookie QB. Everything fell into place, and it allowed him the opportunity to break the rookie passing touchdown record. Coming off the incredible season, Herbert currently has an average draft position (ADP) of 6.6 in Superflex dynasty leagues. Only four QBs are coming off the board before him. Even if you’re a Justin Herbert truther, I think now is the time to trade him, as his value could never be higher. Let’s explore what happened last year, and hypothesize how “Big Herbs” could be looking at a different situation moving forward.

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(My) Dynasty Strategy Evolution

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Spring of 2018, scrolling through my Twitter feed I stumbled upon a tweet about a 24-team 2-copy Superflex IDP Dynasty League. I didn’t know what Superflex or Dynasty meant but it sounded fun. In my mind, it was like building a Madden franchise, so I joined the league. I really had no idea how to draft or what rankings to follow. I was always very good in my redraft home leagues, but it was difficult to adjust my rankings. It was the middle of the offseason; I had no rankings for 2018 yet. I ended up opening FantasyPros and using the consensus rankings for dynasty. The problem was, I didn’t realize the rankings were for 1QB leagues.

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Devy Dive: High Upside High School Prospects To Watch From the 2022 Class

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To explain the methodology of this process I have broken down many of the top recruits into three cohorts. First, we have the #TeamPedigree. These are highly rated players who retain value in devy leagues based on their recruiting hype alone and will be projected for high NFL Draft capital even if they do not succeed in achieving an early collegiate breakout. Secondly, we will look at the #TeamPotenial cohort. These are prospects that in the right situation, and if given opportunities early in their college career, can skyrocket to the top of the 2025 Draft class. Finally, we have my favorite type of players in the #TeamFun cohort., players who have unparalleled potential as NFL prospects but need several events to unfold for that potential to be realized and also offer dynasty league-changing upside.

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2021 Projections: LA Chargers

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In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.

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Treylon Burks: 2021 Devy Profile

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As of now, Treylon Burks is a consensus top 5 WR in the 2022 class. I am very confident he will end up in my top 3. What will propel Burks up boards is his athleticism and size. With a frame very similar to D.K. Metcalf and speed of his own, Burks could be a big combine riser. Reports are Treylon has been clocked with a 4.4 40 which is not D.K. Metcalf fast, but fast enough to turn heads and get NFL coaches and GMs talking.

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new coaching hires

New NFL Coaching Hires: Where The Dust Settled (Part 2)

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Your author covered the first three coaching hires in a previous article, so it’s time to cover the remaining four new head coaches here. Each team needed enough time and attention and a fair rundown of where their franchise currently stands. Let’s continue the break down! 

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Week 10 Buy/Sell

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You know who’s fun? Kyler Murray. He’s just amazing to watch. I have no idea how his legs move so quickly. He’s also smart. He gets slides to avoid hits better than any NFL player I’ve ever seen. What a fun player to watch. You know who is also fun? DeAndre Hopkins. Zach and I have friends who are Texans’ fans and it’s just ridiculously fun to dunk on the trade that sent Hopkins to Arizona. Nuk is an absolute baller and that trade was a travesty. Now… you know what’s not fun? When Kyler threw up what is now being called the Hail Murray to Hopkins to win on Sunday. Why was it not fun? Because it allowed Zach to beat me by six points. Yeah… not fun. So let’s talk about something that is fun. How about some trade targets!

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dynasty sleeper jalen guyton

Dynasty Sleeper of the Week: Jalen Guyton

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What a week for this column! We saw some of my previous sleepers come to life in Week Seven. Nelson Agholor looked like the wide receiver one for the Raiders. Deonte Harris caught a touchdown for the Saints. Even Jakobi Meyers looked like the best WR on an abysmal Patriots offense. While all these situations can be a bit tenuous, especially this year and beyond, hopefully, we can keep it going by adding value to the end of your rosters. This week we have a guy that was one of my honorable mentions a couple of weeks back. He flashed again, and this kid is a big-play threat. Jalen Guyton, an undrafted FA from 2019, has made quite a bit of noise this year with limited opportunities. He is currently owned in 15% of leagues according to MyFantasyLeague data, and that will surely creep up, even more, this week after his 84 yards and a touchdown game against the Jaguars.

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#TomBomb: Los Angeles Chargers

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Is there a more underappreciated WR in the league than Keenan Allen? As far as Old Tom is concerned, that answer is a resounding no. Now, please understand, I’m not saying there aren’t other stud WRs who are also treated poorly, in the fantasy community. What I’m saying is that when you attempt to marry the disrespect with the stat-production, Mr. Keenan takes the cake, in Old Tom’s eyes. One reason, the main reason really, I believe Allen seems to have a tough time knocking off the negative vibes, stems from his year two regression and the following two injury-riddled campaigns. The final straw, unfortunately for many, was the torn ACL suffered in Week 1’s contest back in 2016. What that did was it gave Allen the all so important “injury-prone” tag, that found its justification in the reality of 25 missed games over the course of his team’s previous 34 contests. Ouch! (pun intended)

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@DynastyDiagnos1 DFF Redraft Championship Draft

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As expected, McCaffrey was the first overall selection, leaving me facing down the barrel of the next best dual-threat running back in Saquon Barkley. Barkley surpassed 1,000-yards rushing in 2019 despite missing time and is the most talented pass-catcher on the roster. By the time the 2.11 pick came around 16 running backs and 6 wide receivers had been selected. Choosing between Jonathan Taylor, Allen Robinson, and Travis Kelce at the top of their respective positions I decided that Kelce offered the best value over a replacement player at his position. At the 3.02 turn with Kittle having been selected it was far too tantalizing to pass up the opportunity to stack Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. Referencing the above tweet from Scott Barrett, the plan was to go all on stacking the RB1, TE1, and QB1 and hope for the best when it comes to depth.

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DFF Redraft Championship Draft

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The DFF team recently completed our annual DFF Redraft Championship draft and I was fortunate enough to be granted the first overall pick! We set up a 17-round PPR draft, with 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 2 Flex, 1 TE, 1 D/ST as starters, and a 7-player bench. This was especially fun because it was the first year we implemented a zoom video conference during the draft and had live commentary on each and every selection. It was certainly a tough room but we had a blast. I’m excited about my team and chances against the stout DFF competition this year. Let’s review how my draft unfolded from the 1.01 spot. 

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Chris Carson: 2020 dynasty profile

The 2020 All-Uglies

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Everyone wants the hot new thing. As kids, we all wanted the brand new toy for Christmas and turned our noses up at the pairs of socks we sometimes got instead. Now that we are adults we want the cool new sports car instead of the pre-owned Honda. It’s the same in fantasy football. Everybody wants to be the guy who drafts the young running back who vaults himself into the first round next year. We all target those third-year wide receivers looking for that elusive breakout. But you know what? Those socks are a good present. They get the job done and you use them all the time. That pre-owned Honda is reliable and doesn’t cost an arm and a leg to maintain. You can find similar values every year in fantasy football. No one in your draft room will let out a sigh of relief when you take one of these guys, but they’ll get the job done for you. These are the used cars and Christmas socks of the 2020 fantasy season. I present to you 2020 All-Uglies.

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Lessons Learned from 2019 Regular Season

Are You a True Dynasty Contender?

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In dynasty leagues, one of the toughest decisions that fantasy owners make is whether they are a true contender or not. Continuing to try and contend when you need to rebuild will set your dynasty team back for years. Therefore, it’s crucial to be able to take an objective look at your team, from top to bottom, and decide where you are.

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Dynasty Story: Mike Williams

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In April, I started writing a series focusing on one player at a time, called “A Redraft Journey.” I wrote about Austin Ekeler, Allen Robinson, and recently about Melvin Gordon. I love writing about redraft, but I realized that I could bring this style over to dynasty. In a dynasty story, I’ll look more at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. Let’s jump into Mike Williams, the subject of my first dynasty story.

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The Rookie QB Mousetrap

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Breaking down these results broadly, we find that 4% of our sample QBs supported a WR1,17% supported a WR2, and 47% supported a WR3. In other words, since 2012, there’s been a 53% chance that a rookie QB fails to produce even a single wide receiver in the top 36. Considering there are only 32 teams in the NFL, that’s a pretty shocking revelation.

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Redraft Team Focus: Chargers

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For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will have a starting quarterback not named Philip Rivers. Rivers was a checkdown machine unlike almost any other quarterback in the NFL, as he heavily targeted all his running backs, not only Ekeler. The Chargers drafted Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as their long-term starting quarterback and have Tyrod Taylor as their bridge starter. Both Taylor and Herbert scare me for Ekeler’s overall value.

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Startup Draft Strategy: Part 1

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With no sports going on, right now is the perfect time to join a new dynasty league. This article offers advice on different strategies you can use to approach your draft providing you an edge over your competition. These tips are geared toward a traditional fantasy dynasty format with no special rules such as Superflex or TE Premium.

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