Justin Herbert’s rookie season was a veritable perfect storm for the rookie QB. Everything fell into place, and it allowed him the opportunity to break the rookie passing touchdown record. Coming off the incredible season, Herbert currently has an average draft position (ADP) of 6.6 in Superflex dynasty leagues. Only four QBs are coming off the board before him. Even if you’re a Justin Herbert truther, I think now is the time to trade him, as his value could never be higher. Let’s explore what happened last year, and hypothesize how “Big Herbs” could be looking at a different situation moving forward.
Entering 2020
At Oregon, Justin Herbert was a good-not-great pocket passer with a favorable touchdown to interception ratio. He was taken with the sixth pick in the NFL draft, and there was an assumption that he would take some time getting acclimated to the NFL behind Tyrod Taylor. The Chargers were featured on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” in 2020, so we did get a chance to see what Herbert could do before the season began.
Chargers’ Injuries
During the 2020 preseason, we saw Derwin James go down with a knee injury that ended his season before it even began. Several other prominent Chargers defenders got the injury bug as well with Chris Harris Jr. missing seven games and Melvin Ingram missing nine. These major players plus minor bang-ups along the way caused their defense to finish as the 23rd ranked squad in the NFL (13th in passing TDs allowed and 12th in rushing TDs allowed).
The offense wasn’t immune to injuries either. Before LA’s week two game, news broke that Herbert would become the starter after Taylor suffered a punctured lung while receiving a pain-killer injection for his cracked ribs. Herbert took over, and from that point on, it was his team. This move thrust Herbert into the spotlight whether or not he was ready for it. Lucky for him, he was ready for it. Along with the switch at QB, the running back position saw a bit of turnover in 2020 with Austin Ekeler missing six games, Justin Jackson missing seven games, and multiple starting linemen being unable to suit up at various points in the season.
These injuries not only gave Herbert the opportunity to take over as the starter, but they put the team in a position to throw the ball often. The defense was allowing a lot of points and the offense, without an RB they could count on consistently through the season, had to throw to stay in the game. They finished 6th in passing yards per game while finishing 18th in rushing yards per game.
Herbert’s Rushing
In 2020 Justin Herbert ran for a modest 234 yards on 55 carries. This alone doesn’t mean much, but pair that with his five rushing TDs and that’s where his upside really kicked in. Herbert had 13 total rushing TDs while at Oregon, he isn’t a guy that takes off all the time. Compare Justin Herbert to Aaron Rodgers, another pocket passer who is mobile but not a runner. Rodgers’ best rushing season saw him take in five, while Herbert was able to do it his rookie year. Needless to say, I don’t think it is repeatable.
I already covered how Herbert was without his top two rushing options for large portions of the season. Pair that with injuries in the offensive line, and you can understand that Herbert was running because he had to and there was no one else to do it. As you can see in the clips below, Herbert didn’t have a ton of time in the pocket.
What To Expect Going Forward
Herbert is a solid passer who is paired with a tactical route runner in Keenan Allen, a great deep threat in Mike Williams, and arguably the best receiving back in the league in Austin Ekeler. He could put up a ton of TDs and that would keep him fantasy relevant. The Chargers improved their offensive line, so Herbert should have more time in the pocket to stand and let his receivers work themselves open. He could really become a deadly passer. However, I think his upside will be capped a bit because of his inability to rush and the Chargers’ defense.
If their defense stays healthy, the Chargers could be top ten in the league. This would put the Chargers in a lot of positive game scripts where they’re looking to run out the clock on the ground instead of airing it out. Pair this with a defense-minded head coach in first-year man Bradon Stanley, and the Chargers’ offense could look a lot different in 2021.
After this season, Mike Williams is a free agent and Keenan Allen will be 30 years old. While I believe he’ll still be able to play for a few years, his absence could mean the Chargers have to completely rebuild their WR room. Ekeler is 26 and for RBs, once they hit 25 you start to expect a decline. Ekeler should be able to hold it off since he hasn’t seen the workload that most guys would have by his age, but still, he isn’t someone I want to bank on being around much longer for Herbert either.
So What Am I Getting At?
Basically what I’m saying is Justin Herbert is coming off of a record-breaking rookie season with a defensive-minded head coach and skill players that may not be around much longer. Now is the time to move him unless you want to hold and go through the growing pains of the Chargers rebuilding their offense.
Before you head to the trade block realize that you shouldn’t be moving Herbert at a discount. If you don’t get an offer that blows you away, hold on to him as great QBs are hard to come by in rookie drafts. However, if you can get multiple firsts and a replacement QB that isn’t quite as sexy, I think it’s a no-brainer.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
