dynasty

Rookie WR Hits and Misses: Part 3

The Steelers selected Johnson with the 66th overall pick in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Coming into the season, Johnson was the fourth receiver on the Steelers’ depth chart. He sat behind Juju Smith-Schuster, Donte Moncrief, and James Washington. However, after Week 1, the Steelers had seen enough of Moncrief. From then on, Johnson and Washington shared the WR2 and WR3 roles behind Smith-Schuster. In that role, Johnson received 92 targets, converting those into 59 receptions for 680 yards and five touchdowns. He led the Steelers in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns, and he finished just behind Washington in receiving yards.

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Rookie WR Hits and Misses: Part 2

In Week 1, Samuel led the 49ers’ receivers with an 88% snap share, although he had just three receptions for 17 yards. The 49ers benched Pettis, giving him only two offensive snaps. After Week 1, the 49ers rotated Pettis, Samuel, Goodwin, and Bourne, a rotation that continued through Week 7. In Week 8, the 49ers traded for Emmanuel Sanders. They benched Pettis and Goodwin and used Sanders and Samuel as their two starting receivers, with Bourne as the primary WR3.

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The Dark Side of the Moon: Exploring IDP through the Prism of Offense

In the interest of furthering the inclusion of individual defensive players in redraft and dynasty leagues alike, let’s explore how each of the five defensive positions functions like an offensive position on fantasy football rosters. I can’t tell you which offensive player or even fantasy rookie draft pick you should offer for Aaron Donald without knowing the context of your league. I can, however, explain how to value defensive tackles in fantasy football using tight ends as context. In fact, each defensive position has a close parallel on offense.

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Worst RB Landing Spots: 2020 NFL Draft

The 2020 running back class appears to be deep and filled with talent. David Montgomery may not even make a top-five list among players like D’andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the list could go on. We love watching these guys in the combine and get excited about the NFL Draft. What we don’t want is for any of them to end up of the following teams. 

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Rookie RB Hits and Misses: Part 2

Ingram led the way with 202 carries, with Edwards in second with 133 carries. Hill lagged with just 58 carries. Hill also only had eight receptions in all of 2019, a major disappointment for a player with highly touted passing-game skills. Edwards, who has almost no pass-catching ability, finished with seven receptions, just one less than Hill. Hill played in all 16 games, so his poor stats were not due to injury. He also played on only 17% of offensive snaps.

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Rookie QB Hits and Misses

This series will look back on the 2019 class and explore the biggest hits and misses. Now, since this will be a long series, let’s start with the premise here in part one. For each position, I will examine all the rookies that were selected in a significant number of rookie drafts, or achieved significant production at that position. A hit will generally be a player that produced fantasy points in year one and gained or at least maintained their dynasty value. A miss will be players who didn’t produce or at least who underperformed. I will also have a third category; incomplete. In this category, I’ll discuss those players who did not receive significant playing time and where they can go in 2020 and beyond.

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Prediction: Combine Risers

Listed at 6’4 220 pounds, Cole McDonald looks like an NFL talent. McDonald has a rocket of an arm and moves very well for his size. As a two year starter at Hawaii, the gunslinger threw for 8,010 yards and 69 touchdowns. Although putting up video game numbers, McDonald is considered a day 3 prospect by most. This is likely due to a funky throwing motion and less than desirable completion percentage of 61.4. However, with a strong performance in Indianapolis, I believe Cole McDonald can make his way into the Day 2 decision. To do this, he will need to run a good 40 time and show off his arm talent. 

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The Untradeables

Julio Jones is only untradable due to age. That’s the only reasonable excuse to not give proper value for a receiver who consistently a top-five or 10 fantasy player in his position. Jones finished 2019 as the WR4 with 99 receptions for 1,394 yards and six touchdowns. 

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Quarterbacks: Rightfully Untouched by the BMI Hysteria

Historically, there has been a strong narrative in the football community about QB size despite players like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray balling out on Sundays. The QB size debate begins with how tall a QB is and if it affects their ability to make reads of the defense on passing plays. There has been a lot of discussion around QB hand size and its correlation to QB performance in cold-weather games. Analysts have even studied QB weight and how it translates to their durability in the NFL. So I decided to use my newly released college prospect database and explore BMI and QB performance. Before going any further, there needs to be a brief overview of BMI. BMI compares an individual’s weight to their height and it’s used to describe their level of body fat or thickness. The index was derived from the works of the Belgian thinker, Adolphe Quetelet.

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2019 Fake Outs

In this piece, I’ll walk you through three “fake-outs.” These are players that broke out or had strong seasons in 2019 that I do not expect to maintain that level of performance going forward. Therefore, you could call each of these guys a dynasty “sell-high.”

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Connor’s Fantasy Awards

Cornerback is usually the worst defensive position in fantasy football, yet Ryan was the highest-scoring non-linebacker in 2019. As the 8th ranked IDP player according to FantasyPros, Ryan was the only non-linebacker in the top-10. Ryan is also one of only three non-linebackers in the top-20 IDP players this season, both of the others being safeties. If you want to go down to where Humphrey is, you’d have to go all the way down to 51st. In other words, when it comes to cornerbacks, Ryan was in a class of his own this season.

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2020 WR Sleepers

While creating my 2020 WR Model, I found a few under the radar players not getting much love currently, but I believe these players 100% deserve your attention leading up to and after the NFL draft. These players all have elements that both analytic nuts and film grinders should be able to appreciate. They all “broke-out” their sophomore year, and have good traits seen on film. When a player checks both of those boxes, I am officially intrigued. Keep reading to see my breakdowns of these potential sleepers.

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The Value of a WR2

My goal for this piece is to lay out my personal experience with building depth at the wide receiver position over the last few seasons. I have come to find that targeting wide receivers who are the second options on certain teams have allowed me to bank up significant depth and afforded me opportunities to make moves for other positions.

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Don’t You Forget About Me

In this article, I’m going to walk you through three players that had a down season in 2019, but who I expect to either bounce back or breakout in 2020. For variety’s sake, I’ve decided to look at a running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Also, I’ve picked three very different types of players to explore the different ways to buy at this time in the offseason. 

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