Spring is here and with it comes… dynasty startups? With no sports going on, right now is the perfect time to join a new dynasty league. Some of you may be dynasty vets while some may be newcomers to this format. One thing is for sure; the draft will set you apart or lead to frustration for years to come. This article offers advice on different strategies you can use to approach your draft providing you an edge over your competition. These are geared toward a traditional fantasy dynasty format with no special rules such as Superflex or TE Premium. But they also aren’t exclusive by any means; feel free to try these in any startup league that interests you.
Running Back Heavy
The first strategy I’ll cover is the running back heavy strategy (RB Heavy). With this strategy, the goal is to hammer running backs early and often. Elite running backs are far more valuable than wide receivers. In 2019 Chris Carson was RB12 in total points scored for the season with 226. David Montgomery was RB24 with 168 total points scored. This is a 58 point differential between one single tier of running backs.
Meanwhile, Jarvis Landry was WR12 in 2019 with 237 points scored, while Stefon Diggs finished as WR 24 at 208, only a 29 point difference. This shows the drastic drop-off in tiers between starting running backs and wide receivers. To utilize the RB Heavy strategy, you should be aiming to target a running back with your first three picks and preferably snagging a fourth by round six.
Depending on where you are in the draft order can drastically change which guys you can acquire. For example, drafting at the top will net you either Christian McCaffrey or Saquon Barkley as your feature back allowing you to grab a combo of Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, or even Jonathan Taylor with your next two picks. If you draft in the middle of the round, you could be looking at a Dalvin Cook or Ezekiel Elliott as your main guy with options of Derrick Henry, Miles Sanders, or J.K. Dobbins to fill it out. At the end of the round, you can still get the new hotness Nick Chubb or the potential bounce-back player of the year candidate Joe Mixon to lead your squad. Perhaps you’re following them up with guys like Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, or Melvin Gordon. No matter where you draft though, you’ll have a stable core of young running back studs for years to come.
While following this strategy will set you apart at the running back position for at least the next few years, it does have its drawbacks. Since you take so many running backs early, the elite wide receivers are usually gone. This means in year one you need to take a chance on picks who have more inherent risk than those top guys. If you followed this strategy right now, depending on where you draft, you’d be looking at your top receiver being someone like Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, or Calvin Ridley. Those are all big-name receivers, but as your wide receiver one, they present a lot of inconsistency risk.
Also, with this strategy, you typically need to take a chance on some rookie receivers. In some years that can massively pay off. A.J. Brown, “F1” Terry McLaurin, and Deebo Samuel all finished 2019 as fringe WR2s in fantasy. If you drafted them in 2019, you were rewarded in a big way, but this isn’t always the case. In 2018 only one wide receiver finished the season as a WR3 or better, and that was Calvin Ridley who was WR23 that year.
So to summarize, this strategy will give you a massive edge at the running back position that is arguably the most important position year-to-year, but you will have more risk built-in due to the WR drop-off. If you think having that edge is more critical to your short-term success, then remember to hammer those running backs early and often.
Zero RB
RB Heavy was all about running backs, as many as you can get early. This next approach is the polar opposite, with the goal being to bypass running back as long as possible while drafting as many elite pass catchers as you can. The reason why this strategy became popular in the first place is because of the high value of running backs early. As mentioned before, the difference between RB12 and RB24 last season was massive compared to WR12 to WR24. That means running backs are hot commodities in startup drafts which tends to push the elite pass catchers down further. And in dynasty, wide receivers retain their value longer than a running back.
For context why elite wide receivers retain value so much longer than running backs, all you have to do is look at what age both positions “peak”. Multiple sources have researched the breakdown of fantasy points at various ages for both running backs and wide receivers, but I’ll reference an article by Mike Tagliere at FantasyPros. “At What Age Does A Running Back/Wide Receiver Decline?” concluded that fantasy running backs begin to decline at age 26 compared to wide receivers who tend to decline after age 32. That means if you get an elite wide receiver at age 24 you can potentially keep him for another eight years. Compare that to having an elite running back at 24 with possibly only two years left in the tank.
Currently, two main philosophies surround the Zero RB strategy. One says you shouldn’t draft a running back until you’ve filled all receiver, tight end, flex, and sometimes quarterback positions before you draft your first running back. The other philosophy says draft your starting receivers and tight ends, then grab a running back when the time is right while disregarding the flex. Both philosophies can work and are completely up to your personal preference. Sounds easy, right?
The risk behind this strategy is that you miss out on the elite workhorse running backs. This means you need to draft more rookie running backs, committee running backs, or handcuffs that you hope will breakout. Luckily, while elite workhorse running backs may be the most valuable position in fantasy football, it is also the most volatile. Todd Gurley came off 2018 as the RB3 on the season and finished above every single wide receiver that campaign. He went into 2019 being drafted as the sixth pick overall. Well, in 2019, he had a knee injury, his offense regressed, and his usage went down. This led to him finishing as RB15 last year. The same year, Austin Ekeler was drafted as RB24, which was 122 overall. He finished 2019 as RB4. This shows the unpredictability of the running back position, which can highlight the stability of a strong receiving core.
This strategy can be risky in the beginning year of a startup league due to the importance of the running back position. Bypassing all the elite workhorse guys to load up on receivers will hurt in the short-term, but due to the long lifespan of the receiver position, you’ll have value for years to come.
Balanced Strategy or Best Player Available
The last strategy we’ll discuss is known as the balanced strategy or best player available (BPA). This is by far the most common strategy as it allows you to be the most flexible and fluid during the draft. This strategy is as simple as it sounds; you take the best player available when you’re on the clock. Depending on how the board falls, this could mean you take three straight running backs or three straight receivers. Alternatively, it means you could get a running back like Dalvin Cook in round one, a receiver like Mike Evans in round two, and running back again like Leonard Fournette in round three. This is the most common strategy because it’s the easiest as well as the safest.
There are nuances to this strategy just like the other two. One such nuance is to draft the highest-rated player even if he’s someone you don’t particularly like in a given year. Now you’re probably asking why anyone would do that and the answer is simple – trade value. There’s a reason people spend hours creating ranking systems for these players assigning an inherent value to their name. And while gut instinct can be beneficial, if you take the best player available every pick you can trade down later for the guys you wanted, plus more in some cases. Another nuance is that it allows you to be completely flexible during the draft. The ability to be flexible doesn’t sound that great until you realize how useful it is in the heat of the moment. How many times have we all had the perfect draft strategy going into the draft? You know where every player will be going because you’ve mocked every possible scenario. Then the first overall pick is a tight end throwing the entire strategy out the window. If you were drafting using the Zero RB or RB Heavy strategies, the players you get are a little more out of your control. If you wanted to use the RB Heavy method as the 12th overall pick in a startup and eleven running backs went before you, then the inability to be flexible with your pick locks you into something you don’t want or need.
The last main benefit of this strategy is that there are few risks. As mentioned previously, if all the top running backs/wide receivers are gone by your first pick, and you’re using either of the other strategies, then you’re going to have a bad time. The main risk to this strategy is the ranking system you use; if your sources don’t know what they’re doing, you’re in for a rocky draft. But if you can trust the rankings, like here at DFF, then you’ll be set up for success in building a dynasty. This is also the best strategy for year one of your league as it doesn’t hurt your team in any significant way. If you’re of the mindset of win-now mode each year then figuring out the future when it comes, this route is best for you.
Conclusion
These three strategies are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to dynasty startup drafts. The number one thing you can do when trying an approach you’re not comfortable with is to mock, mock, and mock again. Get a feel for how your team shakes out after a mock draft and go with the strategy that fits you best. Just remember that none of these strategies are foolproof, and when it comes to draft day, nothing ever goes according to plan. So know what you want your team to look like and go from there.
Stay tuned for Part 2 of my Startup Draft Strategy where I’ll be covering things like youth vs. experience, trading draft picks, and some Superflex strategy. Until then, thanks for reading. You can find me @DFF_Calvin, where I’m always ready to discuss dynasty.
