Shanahan-agans are back! With April 1st in the rearview, 49ers running back Tevin Coleman is now guaranteed two million dollars for the 2020 season. If San Francisco had cut him prior, they would have saved $4.55 million in cap space with zero dead cap hit. Coleman is back, but what about the other RBs on the roster?
Matt Breida received a second-round tender so barring a team giving up a second-round pick to pay him (spoiler: yeah, not gonna happen), Breida will be back.
Late-year breakout Raheem Mostert is under contract until 2022 and Jeff Wilson is back for another year before he becomes a restricted free agent in 2021.
Kyle Shanahan has four running backs under contract that have played for him over the past two years. However, it’s the running back who hasn’t played football in two years that he’s most excited to see in 2020 – Jerick McKinnon. At this point, McKinnon has reached post-post hype sleeper; he’s forgotten about in most leagues and his value couldn’t be lower. He’s probably sitting on most dynasty waiver wires and for good reason. He’ll be 28 years old in May and hasn’t stepped on a football field in the last two seasons. So why care about him?
To answer the prior question, Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch care about him so maybe you should too. An article published on April 25 via the 49ers website quotes Lynch saying “I would tell you we would like nothing more than to see him actually on the field… we admire the way he’s worked through the various issues that he’s had and we would love to see that through in some form or fashion.” The general manager says he wants him on the field. Okay, GMs say a lot, but John Lynch followed through signing him to a reduced contract to stay on the team.
Jerick McKinnon is now part of a large stable of five running backs on the 49ers depth chart. Great, now why should you expect him to break free from the pack? According to NBC Sports, “Coach Kyle Shanahan hand-picked McKinnon on the first day of free agency in 2018 for his ability to fit into his offense because of his route-running skills out of the backfield”. Despite seeing Mostert, Coleman, and Breida show flashes of success in 2019, the 49ers have lacked in running back receiving threats under Shanahan. In 2018 Breida led the backfield with 27 catches. In 2019, with Coleman added and leading the trio with 21 catches, they combined for 64. The two seasons prior to McKinnon’s injuries, he averaged 47 catches which were top 20 in the league for running backs each year, a stat that included pass-catching heavy backs like Theo Riddick and James White at the time. McKinnon was also able to add over 500 rushing yards getting the lower end of carries in a committee. He won’t be asked to be a workhorse, but if he stays healthy and can earn the role Shanahan wants him to be in, McKinnon can be a great PPR option for redraft leagues in 2020.
If McKinnon can stay healthy and win the pass-catching role, what kind of targets is he looking at? In 2019, Jimmy Garoppolo was extremely safe and didn’t make many ill-advised throws. He finished seventh in interceptable passes with only 28 over the entire season and finished seventh in danger plays (any play that could have resulted in turnover due to lack of awareness by a QB). Pair his smart decision making and awareness with his 27th ranked pass attempt distance and the story is becoming clearer that this QB lets his supporting cast do the heavy lifting. With no one running back grasping hold of the pass-catching role, the group combined for 57 catches on 79 targets for 514 yards and five touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t great as a whole, but that’s because they are with players the staff doesn’t like as much in that role. McKinnon, if healthy, will come back to be utilized as the main pass-catching threat in that backfield.
The floor is he can’t stay healthy so you can drop him and move on quickly. The upside is he is the main receiving threat out of the backfield that Shanahan has wanted since he became head coach. With an upside like that, Jerick McKinnon could be a sneaky last pick of your draft. Make sure to monitor his return to the team this August to find out if his play can be what the 49ers believed it to be.
Let me know what you think about the crowded 49ers backfield and give me a follow @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter!
