contracts

How the '21 Salary Cap Changed the NFL

How the ’21 Salary Cap Changes the NFL

In March the NFL set the salary cap at $182.5 million. Which was a significant drop from 2020’s $198.2 million and even below 2019’s $188.2 million. It was the first time in seven years the cap didn’t increase by at least $10 million. With everything typically trending up, NFL teams faced cap issues heading into the 2021 offseason. We’ve already seen teams cutting veteran players and restructuring contracts. With a few notable free agents still out there and draft day approaching, what other moves could we see as teams maneuver around the cap?

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Brandon Aiyuk: 2021 Dynasty Profile

Brandon Aiyuk began his collegiate football career at Sierra College, a community college in California. After a strong sophomore season, Aiyuk transferred to Arizona State. As a junior, Aiyuk underwhelmed alongside future first-round pick N’Keal Harry. But he blew up as a senior, recording a 40.6% dominator rating (81st percentile) with 65 receptions for 1,192 yards and eight TDs. Aiyuk was also incredibly dynamic at Arizona State, contributing on special teams as both a kick and punt returner. 

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colts wide receivers

Fantasy Outlook: Colts Wide Receivers

Last week, the Indianapolis Colts decided to bring back wide receiver T.Y. Hilton on a one-year deal worth up to $10M. The 31-year-old veteran receiver is taking less money to stay in Indianapolis (Ravens offered a multi-year deal). He should serve as one of the top receiving options for his new quarterback, Carson Wentz. Hilton will rejoin a wide receiver room that also includes: Michael Pittman Jr., Parris Campbell, and Zach Pascal. Below, I will be digging deeper into each receiver’s fantasy outlook for the 2021 season. 

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Joe Mixon: 2021 Dynasty Profile

Joe Mixon played college football at the University of Oklahoma from 2014-2016. As a redshirt sophomore, Mixon racked up over 1,800 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 TDs. After his strong 2016 season, Mixon declared for the 2017 NFL Draft. During the pre-draft process, he measured in at 6’ 1”, 226 lbs. and registered an impressive 92nd-percentile speed score with his 4.50 40-yard dash. Under different circumstances, Mixon could’ve easily been a first-round pick. Due to character concerns and an incredible RB class that included Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey, Mixon slipped into the second round where he was selected by the Cincinnati Bengals.

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Leonard Fournette Returns To Tampa Bay

Leonard Fournette re-signed with the Buccaneers on a one-year deal worth $3.25M. The contract also includes incentives that would push it up to $4M. Fournette will now re-join Ronald Jones Jr. in one of the best backfields in the league. Last offseason, Fournette was released from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He then quickly signed with Tampa Bay on a one-year deal worth $2M. The Buccaneers planned for Fournette to serve as Jones Jr.’s back-up, something Fournette had never done in his three seasons in the league. Jones Jr. battled injuries throughout the season, and Fournette had plenty of opportunities to succeed. 

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Bears Running Backs: 2021 Fantasy Outlook

Earlier this week, the Chicago Bears signed Damien Williams to a one-year contract, bolstering their running back room. Williams was cut from the Kansas City Chiefs after opting out of last season. This addition should affect both David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen’s fantasy outlook for the upcoming NFL season. Let’s take a look at each player’s fantasy value in 2021.

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Mike Davis: Elusive or Illusion?

Mike Davis was nothing short of exceptional in 2021 completing the year with 642 yards on 165 rushing attempts along with securing 59 of 70 targets for 373 yards and eight total touchdowns. He showed great contact balance and elusiveness all year and proved his worth and upside as a borderline elite pass-catcher. The 28-year-old career backup finished last season as the fantasy RB11 in PPR formats with the third-highest catch rate among running backs (84%) and the second-most games with five or more receptions among running backs (7).

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A.J. Brown: Big Winner in Free Agency

As the first week in NFL Free Agency has come and gone, dynasty owners can now sit back and take in all that transpired. In general, the highly anticipated free agency period did not quite live up to the hype. There were not as many big splash landings as the dynasty community had hoped for. The reduced salary cap played a significant role in the lack of major long-term contracts we have come to expect when big names hit the open market. With that said, some moves do spark some excitement in terms of fantasy football.

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Chris Carson: 2020 dynasty profile

Chris Carson Returns to Seattle

With Russell Wilson trade rumors swirling around the league, Seattle decided to bring back the starting running back that has lined up next to him the past four seasons. Last week, Chris Carson agreed to a two-year deal worth up to $14.6M, per reports from NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero. The deal also includes a third voidable year that makes the contract cap-friendly.

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Is It Fitzmagic Time In DC?

Before everyone goes out and gets Fitzmagic Washington jerseys, everyone needs to take a step back and take a deep breath. Washington is bringing back their entire quarterback room minus Dwayne Haskins, to whom I say good riddance, and is a story for another day. The contract is also another possible indicator of what Washington is planning to do with the quarterback position. Signing him for only a year and $10 million means they aren’t entirely assured of him being the starter the whole year let alone in the future. While I forecast Ryan as the opening day starter, the odds of him finishing up the year as the starting quarterback are slim.

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Patriots: WR Reaction

Day one of the NFL’s free agency period only had a few big-name offensive skill players find teams. But there was one extremely active team…the New England Patriots. The Patriots made roughly 99% of the signings on Monday and each one came with criticism. On the offensive side of the ball, they added Jonnu Smith at the tight end position and the wide receiver duo of Agholor and Bourne. Agholor signs a two-year $26 million dollar deal while Bourne signed a three-year deal, worth $22.5 million. 

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Welcome to New York: Corey Davis

Joe Douglas gets his first free agent of 2021 as the Jets finally look to rebuild their organization after two years of tearing it down. The Twitter analysts are on both sides of the good and the bad for his fantasy value, but the one thing everyone agrees on is the value of the contract. The Jets didn’t blow the bank open for the biggest name (yet) but instead charged along “Joe Douglas” way by finding the value in the market. Davis didn’t start to show signs of being worth his first-round pick until last year which was his fourth year in the league.

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Jonnu Smith Signs With New England

In college Jonnu Smith broke out as a true freshman for FIU with 388 yards and two TDs, earning a dominator rating of 23.8%. A 710 yard and eight TD sophomore season was Smith’s most productive, as he earned a 42.6% dominator rating. However, injuries slowed down Smith in the latter half of his collegiate career. Smith was a piece of the 2016 Jared Goff trade that landed the Titans a litany of draft capital. Smith was selected in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans at the 100th overall pick. In his four seasons with the Titans, Smith amassed 114 catches for 1,302 yards and 16 TDs. He is coming off his most productive season in which he turned 65 targets into 41 catches, 448 yards, and eight TDs along with one rushing TD. He finished as the TE20 in fantasy football, underperforming based on his TE16 dynasty ADP.

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Big Texas TRUSS: Mark Ingram Heads to Houston

On the surface, this feels like a signing that should mean nothing, however, this could be the best news David Johnson managers received since he signed his own extension nine days ago! David Johnson is most likely nearing the end of his fantasy relevance, but with an extension and the chance of Mark Ingram being his top competition for touches this year, he may just go out with a BANG! His health is a concern, but in the 12 games that Johnson was on the field in 2020, he scored double-digit points. Those numbers are golden for a player with an expert consensus ranking of RB27 on FantasyPros.

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Fan Favorite J.J. Watt Leaves One Desert For Another

Monday, the news became official that J.J. Watt had accepted an offer from the Arizona Cardinals for two years and $31 million with $23 million guaranteed. For the two and a half weeks he was a free agent, Watt had been linked to the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Cleveland Browns, and a few other teams. For Watt, it is the end of an impressive era with the Houston Texas, who selected him 11th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. The fan-favorite won the hearts of millions with his work ethic, integrity, and authenticity. Heading into his age 32 season, J.J. Watt embarks on the twilight hours of his career as he chases the ever-elusive Lombardi trophy. 

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Deshaun Watson Trade: Real or Rumor?

I know that everyone’s eyes are on the NFL Playoffs right now. We just capped off an exciting Super Wild Card weekend, and we have three weeks of football left to go. However, even though these playoff games affect dynasty value, there’s no bigger dynasty story right now than a potential Deshaun Watson trade. Let’s jump into the full story!

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NFC South: Divisional Nuggets

All of the receivers of relevance are on contract for next season, but it’s more of a question of who will be throwing to them? Michael Thomas has practically taken this year off, and I am sure we will see him emerge during the playoffs to remind people of his talent. Sanders has not been able to really step up in Thomas’s absence and the others have been injured as well off and on. Hope for a rebound with a better passer at QB next year, but if you can get a good return for Thomas I would consider it after this disappointing season.

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Carson Wentz Benched, Jalen Hurts Starting Quarterback

Let’s look back even further to April of 2016, right before the NFL Draft. The Eagles here were able to pull off a trade with the Cleveland Browns to secure the second-overall pick and select the North Dakota State University quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles originally had the eighth-overall pick so they had to pull out the full bag of tricks to move up. They traded the eighth-overall pick, along with their third-rounder and fourth-rounder in 2016. On top of that, the Eagles traded their first- and second-round picks in 2017 to pull off the deal. So in totality, the Eagles have handed Carson Wentz the keys to the franchise, and to their credit, they were able to win Super Bowl LII against the New England Patriots.

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Raiding the IDP Waiver Wire: Week 13

Opportunities to spot emerging talent in time to fuel a playoff run has passed. Week 13 is the final week of the fantasy regular season in many leagues. Playoff berths and seedings are on the line. Fantasy gamers, it’s time to survive and advance. That means spotting production that’s repeatable from one week to the next. This column exists to provide you those leads. Earlier this season, your author committed to providing both proactive and reactive pick-ups in this weekly column. A proactive pick-up is a player with growing snaps counts and improving play that poises him for a break-out. A reactive pick-up is a player who suddenly posted big numbers due to an injury to or benching of a player ahead of him on the depth chart.

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AFC West: Divisional Nuggets

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has underwhelmed as have all the rookie running backs in 2020. Add into that the issue of one Le’Veon Bell being present and teams that are relying on CEH for a run at a title may be forgiven for being concerned. The question that teams in first through third have to decide is: what matters more… shiny assets for the future or winning a chip?

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