Dynasty Analysis
The Los Angeles Rams felt the hangover of a Super Bowl loss in 2019, missing the playoffs with a 9-7 record. They finished 7th in total offense (yards gained) and 13th in total defense. The analytics firm Football Outsiders ranked the 2019 Rams defense 9th. This defense improved significantly over the 2018 version in both metrics while the offense regressed year over year.
I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a series on veteran dynasty buys at the wide receiver position. I started off looking at three buy-high receivers. Then, I moved into the mid-range of dynasty value, beginning with a detailed dive into Tyler Boyd and Michael Gallup. As I referenced in that piece, I believe that the mid-range of dynasty WRs is a value goldmine with so many undervalued players in that group. Let’s jump into two more players that I think are excellent dynasty buys.
We’ve established that Diggs has the talent and opportunity to lead the Bills receivers next year. We’ve also established that Diggs has a track record of being consistently fantasy-relevant over the past four years. He’s only 26 years old. He’s now the clear number one option after leaving Minneapolis, where he competed with Adam Theilen for targets. If Diggs firmly grasps that number one role, a 1,000 yard, 8 touchdown season may only be a floor. Things are lining up better than most are expecting for Diggs to have his biggest season yet. With his ADP dropping, now is the time to get Stefon Diggs. He’s the perfect player to seek out for a middle of the road team looking to take that next step or a contender looking to put themselves over the top!
For the first time since 2005, the Chargers will have a starting quarterback not named Philip Rivers. Rivers was a checkdown machine unlike almost any other quarterback in the NFL, as he heavily targeted all his running backs, not only Ekeler. The Chargers drafted Justin Herbert with the sixth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as their long-term starting quarterback and have Tyrod Taylor as their bridge starter. Both Taylor and Herbert scare me for Ekeler’s overall value.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Bears.
Green comes with numerous question marks. However, let’s not forget how successful Green has been as a fantasy asset when healthy and on the field despite playing with mediocre quarterback Andy Dalton. In 2018, Green was the WR8 in Weeks 1-8, averaging 18.5 PPG. He caught 45 of 76 targets for 687 yards and six touchdowns, which would have paced for 90 receptions, 152 targets, 1,374 yards, and 12 touchdowns over a full season.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Buccaneers.
As the post-draft hype begins to fade, teams start looking for any asset on the waiver wire that they believe can help bolster their roster; everyone is looking for that next edge. I began to think of who can be this year’s Preston Williams. Who can take the mantle of Tony Romo, Arian Foster, and a few others and carry a team to the next level? Who can you buy low? Who might be on the waiver wire? What follows is a case study of UDFAs who have finished in the top 24 of their position in a fantasy season, how their team responded to that success (were replaced via free agency, the draft, etc.) and what happened in the following year.
As you can see, Cooks has been a highly productive receiver with every stop. It doesn’t matter if he was new to the roster or not. He hasn’t always been the most targeted receiver on his team. Only twice has this happened in his career. Once with the Saints in 2015 and once with the Patriots in 2017– yet he’s still put up four 1,000-yard seasons.
Referred to as a Jones fracture, Deebo fractured part of his fifth metatarsal and will be requiring surgery. According to @FBInjuryDoc on Twitter, the recovery time for this injury is likely 8-12 weeks–with 10 weeks being the preferred timetable. This 10-week timetable theoretically puts Samuel on track to be ready for week 1, assuming no setbacks. Trent Taylor, Deebo’s teammate, endured the same injury last year. While Taylor was expected to be back in under 8 weeks until he required a second surgery. Unfortunately, this second surgery caused an infection causing Taylor to miss the entire 2019 season. Let us hope there are no complications and Samuel can return to the field ASAP.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. Let’s jump into the Dolphins.
In 2016 Adam Thielen came just short of the 1,000-yard receiving mark and was able to bring in five touchdowns. He led the team in receiving yards and only dropped two passes out of 92 targets. Thielen was the fifth-best wide receiver in terms of catch percentage at 75% and fourth-best in yards per target at 10.5. Pairing Thielen’s sticky hands with his speedy 4.45 40-yard dash time lead to a very dangerous target in the Vikings offense.
The Bengals drafted Boyd with the 55th overall pick in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft. In his rookie year, Boyd flashed as the number three receiver behind veterans A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell. Boyd played mostly from the slot and complemented the existing pair of outside receivers. While he wasn’t fantasy relevant, he showed enough as a rookie to provide considerable dynasty optimism going into 2017.
Amari Cooper has monopolized his team’s target share over his career. He’s seen at least 20% every season since 2015. This is something just 10 other wide receivers have accomplished. The thing is, of the wide receivers who’ve received at least 20% target share over the last three seasons, Cooper is last in average target share (20.2%). He’s received exactly 20% two of the last three seasons and it didn’t get much better in Dallas (20.7%). Cooper is dangerously close to falling below the 20%+ target share threshold. This is a benchmark almost all top-10 fantasy wide receivers reach in a given season. Brandin Cooks is the only receiver to finish in the top 10 since 2015 with below a 20% target share and he finished with 19.4%.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Colts.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Seahawks.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Eagles.
Carr wasn’t as bad as some might think in 2019, as he finished as the QB14, ahead of players like Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, and Philip Rivers. However, because he played all 16 games while some other quarterbacks missed games, he only finished 22nd with 15.3 fantasy PPG, which is not impressive. The Raiders also signed Marcus Mariota to a significant contract to back up Carr, which demonstrates that they don’t completely trust him. Carr is only a streamer with no upside, and he’s my QB26.
There’s a big strategic difference between Superflex and tight end premium. Superflex requires or at least allows an extra starter at the quarterback position. Since quarterbacks score far more fantasy points than any other position, it almost always makes sense to start a second quarterback in that slot.
On the other hand, tight ends score the least of all the main fantasy positions. It’s possible to use a 2TE format to force fantasy owners to value tight ends. However, there are barely 12 fantasy-relevant tight ends in the league, let alone 24. Forcing people to start 24 tight ends every week isn’t a fair or viable fantasy format, in my view. It introduces even more randomness, as the bottom tight ends are wholly touchdown-dependent players.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. I’ll reference my PPR redraft rankings at the time of writing. Let’s jump into the Lions.
We saw four quarterbacks get drafted in the 1st round of the 2020 NFL draft. While all have aspirations to be the face of their respective franchises, all have very different avenues to get there. In this article, I lay out each of these QB’s paths to their starting role, and when I expect them […]
I’m back to the dynasty side of writing with a brand-new series on dynasty buys at the wide receiver position. In this series, we’re going to look at three groups of three players: the buy-highs, the underrated, mid-range veterans, and the deep dives. Let’s start with three buy-high players. These guys are all already expensive in dynasty leagues, but I believe that you should pay the premium cost, as they have room to grow even further in value over the next year.
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Ravens.
Prologue On May 2nd, 2020 I received a message on Twitter from my boss at Dynasty Football Factory. I was a little nervous at first–I had only joined this amazing team two months prior. I was also exhausted and still recovering from the marathon that was the “Rapid Reaction: 2020 NFL Draft Landing Spot” series […]
I’m analyzing every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets in this article series. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that you, the reader, have something you can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s jump into the Falcons.