This is part two of my buy/sell/hold article series. To read part one click here!
In this article, I’ll be discussing a few players that have been hyped up this offseason to the point where they have become obvious sells for me in dynasty formats. This article is not to say that these are bad players, but rather, their hype has exceeded their true value.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
He is in a great situation, has a generational talent at quarterback, has a prolific head coach, is in a great system, and has the draft capital. I understand all of the pros of drafting a guy like Clyde Edwards-Helaire in dynasty. He is a rookie stud out of LSU and has landed in arguably the best spot any of the top running backs could have landed. However, per @RyanMc23, Edwards-Helaire is going as the fifth running back off the board in dynasty startups. Wow.
He is being drafted ahead of guys like Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, and Dalvin Cook. This is a perfect example of a hype train going a bit off the rails. Unless you believe that Edwards-Helaire is going to be a top-five running back in the NFL (which, for the record, I don’t) he is a screaming sell right now before the season starts. This is an example of drafting a guy, who has not played one down in the NFL at what would be his absolute ceiling. If I have a share of Edwards-Helaire and these startup ADP values are accurate, I’ll gladly take any of the running backs listed above over him all day long. Now, is it possible that he is an RB1 this season? Absolutely. Is it likely that he leaps over some of the elite running backs that are firmly entrenched in their offenses? No.
In 2019, Kansas City was in the bottom third of the league in rushing percentage per game at 38.57%. That could certainly be due to not having an “elite running back”, but it does undercut the narrative of junk time running plays. Kansas City was an offensive monster last season and won its games by an average of 9.7 points. We can hope that Edwards-Helaire is the guy that will be getting the majority of the carries, but that is yet to be determined. A rookie running back coming into the NFL in a pandemic-plagued offseason gives me some pause on how effective he will be from the start. It should also be noted that I’m “Team JT” as rookie running back 1.01, so take that as you will.
Aaron Rodgers
This one pains me to write. As a die-hard Packers fan and Aaron Rodgers apologist, I do see how impressive he is as an NFL quarterback. That said, there has been a clear dip in his fantasy production over the last two seasons, so you should be selling. Rodgers will be 37 by the end of the 2020 season, and the Packers just traded up in the first round of the 2020 draft to get his eventual replacement, Jordan Love.
Now, I believe Rodgers still holds the keys to this offense for at least the next two years, but you cannot dismiss the importance of the draft pick. In 2018 Rodgers finished as QB 6 and in 2019 he finished as QB 10. Matt LaFleur came to title town last season, and the Packers rushing totals per game increased from 20.8 in 2018 to 25.4 in 2019. LaFleur has an impressive stable of running backs with Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and a second-round draft pick, AJ Dillon. Furthermore, he spent a third-round draft pick on Josiah Deguara, who some have projected to play both tight end and H-back. It is clear that the Packers have transitioned to a run-heavy offense, and the lack of offseason additions or draft picks used on a wide receiver only further underscores that point.
Aaron Rodgers will go down as one of the best quarterbacks of all time, his touchdown to interception ratio is the best in NFL history as is his quarterback rating. That said, an aging star transitioning to a run-first offense spells trouble in dynasty. Sell him while you still can.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Listen, the talent is clearly there. Smith-Schuster was a monster at USC and excelled in his second year with the Steelers. That said, his fantasy finishes to this point have been WR 23, WR 8, and WR 65. There are reasons why he finished so low last season: including dealing with injuries and having to try to catch passes from a guy with the nickname “Duck.” Even when things went as well as they could possibly go through, he still finished as WR 8. That to me is his ceiling. Per DLF ADP Smith-Schuster is currently being drafted as WR 7. He is going ahead of players like A.J. Brown, Kenny Golladay, Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, and D.K. Metcalf, which is not okay.
I have been fairly vocal about my concern with Smith-Schuster being drafted as highly as he is this season. Typically when I’m looking at WR 7 in startups, I’m looking for a guy that is consistent and quarterback proof. Smith-Schuster is neither of those things. Certainly having Ben Roethlisberger returning and supposedly 100% healthy is promising, as is Smith-Schuster reportedly moving back to the slot where he should see less press coverage and should have more room to move.
However, the prospect of drafting a player at what appears to be their absolute ceiling is not appealing to me in the slightest, especially for a player who has had one WR1 season out of three thus far. Given the option of taking Smith-Schuster at WR 7 overall or his teammate Diontae Johnson at WR 38 overall, give me the player who finished 26 spots higher in 2019 in Diontae Johnson. Sell Smith-Schuster now for a consistent top-tier wide receiver and get an additional piece on top of it.
Thanks for reading, follow me on Twitter @DFF_Ztrain for more fantasy football insight and discussion!
