Paying attention to average draft position (ADP) is the easiest way to gain an edge in your fantasy drafts. So, as we get into the heart of draft season, I thought it would be valuable to take a look at a handful of players that are likely to outperform their ADPs.* There are several great values at each position, and I’d like to explain the rationale behind each selection, so this installment of “Redraft Values” will be the first of two parts.
*All ADP data is based on 1 QB, PPR leagues, courtesy of FantasyPros.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
Current ADP: 3.11, WR14
In 2017, Adam Thielen finished as the WR8. In 2018, he finished as the WR7. Through the first six weeks of 2019, before he suffered an injury, he was the WR8. While Adam Thielen may not be the flashiest receiver, he has been incredibly consistent for the past three seasons due to his high-volume role. He received 142 targets in 2017 and 153 in 2018, finishing top-10 in targets both seasons. He was only on pace for 101 targets in 2019 before his injury, but he had a league-leading target share of 35%, the Vikings just weren’t throwing the ball very much.
In 2020, the pass attempts will rise. Teams are rarely able to run as effectively or as often as the Vikings did last season, and losing several key defensive starters will only put more pressure on the offense to pass. Stefon Diggs has been shipped off to Buffalo, which means Thielen will be competing for targets with rookie Justin Jefferson, Irv Smith Jr., Tajae Sharpe, and Olabisi Johnson. He’s essentially locked into 150 targets from a highly accurate QB, yet he’s being drafted as the WR14. If he’s available in the mid-to-late 3rd round of your draft, you have to press the button.
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets
Current ADP: 3.12, RB18
In his first season with the New York Jets, Le’Veon Bell was wildly inefficient. He averaged 3.2 YPC and scored just 3 TDs as he dealt with shaky quarterback play and a terrible offensive line. However, he still finished as the RB16 in 15 games played because he touched the ball 311 times (9th-most at the position). This offseason, the team made massive improvements along the offensive line, adding Mekhi Becton in the 1st round and signing Connor McGovern, Greg Van Roton, and George Fant in free agency. With better blocking and a healthy Sam Darnold at the helm, Bell could do a lot more with his touches in 2020.
Furthermore, Bell should be in store for some natural regression in the TD department. We know the Jets offense was a bad unit overall in 2019, but Bell was downright unlucky when it came to the endzone, averaging 1 TD every 82 carries. I expect him to come closer to his career average of 35 carries per TD in 2020. If he can manage 7 or 8 TDs, Bell has the upside to finish as a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1, but you can lock him up as your RB3 at his current price.
Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions
Current ADP: 8.03, WR36
Through Week 14 of last season, Marvin Jones was the WR16. He scored more fantasy points than Courtland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods, and Tyler Lockett and received only two fewer targets than Kenny Golladay during that span. A large role should be in store for Jones again in 2020 as Matthew Stafford’s clear-cut WR2. The Lions don’t have much depth at the skill positions, so we could see Golladay, Jones, and Hockenson soak up the majority of targets. Jones has a real TD upside, as well. He’s found the end zone nine times in two of the past three seasons, and he was tied for the 8th-most targets inside the 10-yard-line last year despite missing three games. Don’t overthink this one: take Jones in the eighth every time.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Current ADP: 11.03, TE15
There was a lot of buzz around Mike Gesicki when he entered the league. He was an early 2nd-round pick who shattered records at the combine (97th-percentile SPARQ-x), but many wrote him off after a poor rookie season. However, in 2019, Gesicki showed flashes of what made him such a compelling prospect. He caught 51 passes for 570 yards and 5 TDs, finishing as the TE12. He was 3rd at the position in deep targets, 7th in average target distance, and 4th in contested catch rate. Unfortunately, only 70.8% of his targets were catchable (39th among TEs), which prevented him from fully breaking out.
Entering 2020, the Dolphins are short on pass-catchers. Preston Williams is still recovering from an ACL tear, Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns have opted out of the season, and the team doesn’t have a prolific receiving back (unless you count Patrick Laird). Gesicki will smash his TE15 ADP as the second-best option behind Devante Parker in an offense that will have to throw constantly to keep up with opposing offenses.
Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: 12.09, QB18
Jared Goff had an ugly 2019 season. He attempted 626 passes but only threw 22 TDs, which amounts to a 3.7% TD rate (28th-best). However, Goff reached a 5.9% and 5.7% TD rate in 2017 and 2018, respectively. So there’s reason to believe 2019 was an outlier. This idea is further reinforced by the fact that the Rams had nearly as many rushing TDs as passing TDs (20 to 22). That sort of pass-to-rush TD ratio does not occur often, and almost always regresses towards the mean the following season. This means Goff could throw 30+ TDs on similar volume in 2020. This would place him firmly ahead of his QB18 ADP.
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