Dynasty Analysis
It’s been trying times for Le’Veon Bell owners over the last few years. Not only did he hold out the entire 2018 season due to contract disputes but he then signed with the New York Jets in 2019 and was quickly accursed with the Adam Gase hex. 2019 was Bell’s first year under four yards-per-carry since his rookie season (2013) and the lowest target total since he was injured in 2015. He received his lowest carry total (245) since his rookie season, when healthy. Bell finished with 78 targets but if you watched any Jets games you know he was underutilized in the passing attack. Especially considering the lack of short target weapons other than Jamison Crowder. Bell scored just three rushing touchdowns and still finished as the RB16 in PPR leagues last year despite being hindered by the coaching staff and lack of talent surrounding him. Missing the entire 2018 season likely also affected his performance but I’d expect him to be fully reacclimated going forward.
One of the best moves any dynasty GM can make is to capitalize on rough rookie campaigns. This belief is heightened when said campaigns are derailed by injury, as opposed to simply production. Enter one Parris Campbell. With a 97th-percentile Speed and Burst Score coupled with a 100th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, Mr. Campbell is simply a really fast young man. When the Indianapolis Colts drafted this Ohio State burner with the 59th overall selection, in the 2019 NFL draft, they did so with the intention that he would soon replace TY Hilton as the team’s WR1. In my mind, I’m not sure anything has changed on that front.
The Dolphins drafted Ryan Tannehill out of Texas A&M with the eighth overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft to be their new long-term starting quarterback. While Tannehill decently filled that role from 2012-2016, he didn’t make much of an impact for fantasy owners. He ultimately failed to flash the upside he showed in college. Outside of 2014, Tannehill was nothing more than a back-end QB2, and he was a dynasty afterthought outside of superflex leagues.
After an injury-plagued 2018, fantasy owners were anticipating a huge bounce-back year from Jack Doyle in 2019. This did not come to fruition though, as Andrew Luck decided to retire a few weeks before the regular season. After some short-lived early season success, the Colts’ passing attack succumbed to injuries and Jacoby Brissett’s limitations as a passer. Doyle was included in these struggles, as he posted a career-low 59.7 percent catch rate.
Paying attention to average draft position (ADP) is the easiest way to gain an edge in your fantasy drafts. So, as we get into the heart of draft season, I thought it would be valuable to take a look at a handful of players that are likely to outperform their ADPs.* There are several great values at each position, and I’d like to explain the rationale behind each selection, so this installment of “Redraft Values” will be the first of two parts.
At this point, Derrius Guice’s value has little to do with his production. Even so, let’s look at what he’s done as a prospect and in the NFL. Guice played college football at LSU, where he led the backfield in 2016 and 2017. Dynasty owners saw Guice as the clear second-best running back in the 2018 class, behind stud prospect Saquon Barkley.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!
Seasonal (redraft) ranks will appear in article form this year at Dynasty Football Factory. The IDP ranks in spreadsheet form are and will remain for a dynasty format. I’ll update the dynasty ranks year-round, thus making available a rare resource for IDP gamers. I, myself, was always on the hunt for current dynasty ranks for start-up and dispersal drafts for IDP leagues before I started writing. Here are my 2020 Safety ranks, dominated by “jack of all trades” type players!
Kareem Hunt was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the third round out of the University of Toledo where he put up some significant numbers. Hunt broke out in his freshman year and finished his college career with three straight seasons of 10+ touchdowns. Hunt went into the season as their number two running back but that changed after their starting running back Spencer Ware went down in the pre-season. Hunt was named the starter and never really looked back. Playing in all 16 games, Hunt had 272 rushes for 1,327 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. Hunt added 53 receptions, 455 yards, and three receiving touchdowns.
The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
In this article, I’ll be discussing a few players that have been hyped up this offseason to the point where they have become obvious sells for me in dynasty formats. This article is not to say that these are bad players, but rather, their hype has exceeded their true value.
Over the past two seasons, Carson was the RB14 in PPR scoring formats. Despite “lacking breakaway speed” Carson had the third-most breakaway runs in 2019, along with the sixth-most evaded tackles per player profiler. These numbers are consistent with his 2018 totals, so we can conclude that they are sustainable going forward.
Devin Singletary had some impressive moments in his 2019 rookie campaign. He also spent some time on the bench with a lingering hamstring injury. After starting his season with limited opportunities, Singletary was trusted with 20 carries in week nine. He made the most of that opportunity, finishing as the sixth-best running back that week with 140 rushing yards and 38 yards receiving and added a touchdown. From weeks 11-16, Singletary averaged 17.16 rushes per game and 77.66 rushing yards per game, averaging 4.52 yards per attempt. Not too shabby.
Back in 2019, the then-DFF team wrote a dynasty startup strategy guide. That guide holds up well even now, and I would highly recommend going back and reading it. However, I feel like the guide needs a 2020 update. So much has changed in the dynasty universe since March 2019, and I want to address that before the 2020 season. Now that the 2020 season looks like a lock to happen, many of you readers might participate in dynasty startups before the season begins. Therefore, I want to give you my version of this guide. I’m going to split it up into two parts, one for regular 1QB leagues and one for superflex leagues. At this point, superflex formats are so popular within the dynasty community that they certainly deserve their own guide. With all that said, let’s get into the 1QB guide.
At Johnson’s current value, he likely represents a dynasty sell. I’m a firm believer in a bounce-back season for Smith-Schuster, and I expect the Steelers to reach a long-term agreement with him. I don’t see Johnson as having the same ceiling as some other players in his value range, such as Christian Kirk, Mecole Hardman, N’Keal Harry, or Tee Higgins. For those reasons, I’d float Johnson in trade talks if I had him on one of my dynasty teams.
Any individual who is only able to participate in 66% of their team’s contests, across a four-year-span, is normally one I believe I’d try to steer clear of when assembling my roster. However, with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets, Old Tom is fully on board with any and all Will Fuller hype. For clarification, I’m not about to wager the farm for this stance but I’d contemplate the chicken coop. The positive here, though, is that I’d venture to say most Fuller-owners don’t feel as strongly about #15 as Old Tom. Can you say discount? If the reports out of the Texans’ camp are true, and Fuller has added both muscle and speed, I’m just not sure I can start to fathom what his upside becomes in 2020 and beyond.
Now is the time to run away from Fournette. The Jaguars tried to trade him multiple times during the 2020 NFL Draft, and they declined the fifth-year option on his contract. Therefore, Fournette will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season, and he will play for a different team in 2021. The 2021 free agent running back class is a stacked group, with multiple superior options to Fournette that potentially include Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, and others. I wouldn’t wait until the season begins because Fournette will lose value if he isn’t the same workhorse as before. Trust me and get out now while you still can. If you can get any 2021 first-round pick for Fournette, I would make that trade in a heartbeat.
The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
I’ve done a bunch of reaction articles throughout the offseason, but they were all from a dynasty lens. At this point in the offseason, the season is in sight, so any moves have a more direct effect on 2020 redraft leagues. We know far more about each team’s depth chart, so it’s far easier to slot any new additions into a role. I broke down the Patriots for redraft in June, but so much has changed since then. The Patriots signed Cam Newton to replace Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. Also, we received news that Sony Michel had offseason foot surgery, leaving him in a race to be ready for the start of the season. That’s where Lamar Miller comes into play. As he’s an older veteran running back, Miller doesn’t carry much dynasty value, but he makes a massive impact on the Patriots’ backfield in 2020. I’ll begin with Miller, and then move into how I’ve moved each other Patriots’ running back based on his signing. Let’s jump into it!
The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered. If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.
The original idea of half and full PPR scoring was to even out the production between running backs and wide receivers. In the past, say 15-20 years ago, running backs significantly outscored wide receivers. But, giving points per reception leveled the playing field. I’ll break down whether that’s still true, but that was the primary purpose behind PPR scoring systems. Also, basing scoring on receptions creates more predictability in projecting fantasy points. As always, fantasy leagues are more fun when they reward skill over luck. Specifically, adding PPR scoring reduces the scoring impact of touchdowns, which are highly unpredictable, in favor of receptions, which are highly predictable.
Jarvis Landry was the WR21 in fantasy points per game in a season where Baker Mayfield experienced a decreased yards-per-attempt, completion rate, and touchdown rate. All signs point toward Mayfield taking a step forward this season and the Browns being a much more efficient offense in general. Expect the offense to still run through Landry and the run game, with Odell Beckham providing the electric plays. All contending fantasy teams should be trading for Landry with a WR2 floor and low WR1 upside.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Now, I want to take a look at Jamison Crowder. My friend @DocFFN recently wrote a free dynasty profile on Crowder, but I wanted to look at Crowder’s redraft prospects. I also wanted to take more of a long-form approach, as the dynasty free profiles are quick-hitters. Anyway, Crowder might play for the hapless Jets, but I think he deserves some attention as a sleeper for 2020 PPR redraft leagues. Let’s get into why.
As a dynasty asset, I believe Matt Ryan is fairly valued at QB10 by MFL ADP. Because he is 35, his value is sinking, with him being passed up by the younger QB with more perceived upside. However, if you are contending, Matt Ryan is a great option for your team. I believe you can lock Matt Ryan into a top 12 finish in 2020, making him a fantastic QB2 on a SuperFlex team or a very solid QB1 in a standard league. At 35 years old, Ryan still appears to have plenty in the tank. It is safe to bet on Ryan playing for another 3-4 years, but it would also not surprise me if Ryan plays into his 40s like Brady and Brees.
The scarcity of defensive ends that challenge fantasy gamers assembling rosters in conventional-position IDP leagues shifts to the interior in true-position IDP. I’ve ranked 62 interior defensive linemen for 2020 because every IDL with a pulse will eventually appear on fantasy rosters. I calibrated my ranks for 2020 seasonal leagues for 14-team, true-position full-IDP leagues with the scoring settings of FantasyPros.com and 55 roster spots. To that end, I list here 40 interior defensive linemen in the order of value they offer teams starting 11 IDPs including two IDLs. The remaining 22 require additional explanation.