Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 2
What an inauspicious start. Hopefully, this is not a representation of how the rest of the year will go or it’s going to be a very long season.
No excuses though, let’s get back on the horse and see what week three has in store!
Last Week: 0-3
Overall: 1-5
Longshot: 0-2
Malcolm Jenkins Over 6.5 Tackles (-106)
Well, we clearly need a change so let’s start by focusing on the other side of the ball, shall we?
Strong safety Malcolm Jenkins’ tackle numbers have remained remarkably consistent through the first two weeks of the season. In week one, he put up six tackles against the Buccaneers, while in week two he put up seven against the Las Vegas Raiders. So the total is just right for his past performance, but why do I think he can clear it?
To begin, Jenkins has been on the field for 100% of the teams’ snaps in both weeks. While not surprising, it does mean he has the opportunity. Second, star Packers receiver Davante Adams is doubtful for Sunday. The Packers have previously shown a tendency to lean on Aaron Jones in Adams’ absence, which I take to mean that we should expect a game script similar to last week’s Raiders game where Jenkins flourished. Lastly, the Saints have deployed Jenkins in various alignments including on the line of scrimmage, as a free safety, or even a few snaps out at corner meaning he could have the opportunity to produce on any play.
All these factors lead me to believe Malcolm Jenkins has the opportunity for a big game Sunday night. I’ll take the over.
Derek Carr Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-112)
I am probably one of the bigger Carr-truthers out there, but even I am hesitant to support him or the Raiders this week. The Raiders are missing numerous pieces on offense due to injury including Henry Ruggs (out), Trent Brown (out), Darren Waller (Questionable), and Josh Jacobs (Questionable). While I’m fairly confident that both Waller and Jacobs will suit up, those pieces are more conducive to a ground-and-pound, ball-control offense than one that will light up the stat sheet.
While the Seahawks absolutely gashed the Patriots’ secondary, there is a large talent gap between the Seahawks’ potent passing offense and the Raiders. Given the absence of their deep threat, I’d expect the Patriots to lock down the Raiders pass-catchers and force them to march their way down the field. That kind of game script does not support the over in this one.
Anthony Miller Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
I began writing this blurb convinced that I would be taking the under on whatever Anthony Miller’s totals were. After all, it is common knowledge that his snap share has seen a sharp decline while rookie Darnell Mooney’s snaps are trending upwards.
But while that point has merit, it may not necessarily be a negative this week. Miller’s snaps have seen a decline because he is the Bears’ slot receiver and has only been coming onto the field in 11 personnel (1 RB / 1 TE / 3 WR). Despite this, he is still second on the team in targets.
This week, the Bears draw the Falcons who are currently the second-worst team against the pass. Additionally, they just gave up 106 yards to Cowboys’ slot receiver Ceedee Lamb. Allen Robinson thinks Miller will bounce back this week. So long as Miller can eliminate those painful drops, I’m inclined to agree.
Week 3 Longshot Pick
Darnell Mooney to Score Anytime TD (+350)
The opposite side of the coin from above. As Miller’s snap share has decreased, Mooney has seen his snaps rise from 32% in week one to 60% in week two. Atlanta has allowed 2.5 passing touchdowns per game this year, meaning there’s plenty of opportunity for this Bears offense to score through the air. Mooney caught his first career touchdown last week against the Giants, and could easily replicate that against the second-worst pass defense in the NFL.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
