Rookie Stock Market: Week 2

Thanks for tuning in to the second edition of the Rookie Stock Market. With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, trends are beginning to form. Let’s take a closer look, as we identify early season “Risers”, “Fallers”, “Buys”, and “Sells”.

Risers

James Robinson RB – Jaguars

Week 2 Snap Shot

The undrafted rookie out of Illinois State has exploded onto the scene in 2020. When signed by the Jaguars he walked into an RB room with veteran Leonard Fournette, Ryquell Armstead, and Devine Ozigbo. I believe most saw him as a player battling for a roster spot going into training camp. However, after the release of Fournette, and Armstead being placed on the COVID-19 list, Robinson got his shot.

In Week 1 James Robinson drew the start and had a solid showing, logging 90 yards on 17 total touches. In Week 2 Robinson stepped up his game and exploded with 21 PPR points as outlined in the Snap Shot. Moving forward, Robinson looks to be “the guy” in the Jacksonville backfield. In his first two weeks as a pro, James Robinson has averaged 18 touches per game. When a rookie RB is getting that type of usage early on in the season, it warrants both your attention and some hype, and as we all know, hype can drive up the perceived value of dynasty assets. James Robinson’s value is already moving up. According to FFPC ADP, it is up from 152 on September 15th to 133 as of September 19th, and that was before Robinson’s big Sunday. 

CeeDee Lamb WR – Cowboys

Week 2 Snap Shot

Opinions were mixed on Lamb when he was drafted by the Cowboys 17th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. On one hand, he is tied to Dak Prescott one of the better fantasy QBs, but on the other hand, he has to share the field with two 1,000 yard WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. However, 2 weeks into the season, Lamb appears to be in a pretty favorable situation. Despite seeing fewer snaps than both Cooper and Gallup (Lamb 127, Cooper 143, and Gallup 144) Lamb is outproducing Gallup statistically and in fantasy production:

The argument could definitely be made that CeeDee Lamb is the WR2 in Dallas, which produced a 1,000-yard season for Gallup last year. It seems Lamb is primed for a 1k rookie season. Lamb’s stock is trending up. 

Fallers

Henry Ruggs WR – Raiders

Week 2 Snap Shot

The first WR taken in the 2020 NFL Draft has been a bit of a disappointment through two weeks. Ruggs has seen eight total targets and has four catches for 59 yards. In Week 1 Ruggs was targeted often downfield, seeing a 51.1% Air Yards Market Share. However, in Week 2 when seeing three targets he accounted for a 19.6% Air Yards Market Share. However, that number is skewed as he drew two pass interference calls on deep throws that are not counted in the data. Carr likes to target Ruggs deep, but they are struggling to connect, having just one catch for more than 20+ yards.

Due to Ruggs’ early draft pick and presumed role in Las Vegas, many fantasy players were expecting early production from Henry Ruggs in 2020. With just 59 yards through two games, most Ruggs owners are disappointed, and the hype of regular and often explosive from Ruggs has started to dwindle. To add to the disappointment, third-round rookie WR Bryan Edwards has seen the field more this season, out snapping Ruggs 96 to 91. There were rumblings of Edwards being the true alpha receiver in this offense, and it looks like it could be the case. It appears many fantasy players are buying into the Edwards hype, as Ruggs’ ADP on FFPC has fallen from 115 on September 15th down to 121 on September 19th and that was before Ruggs one catch four-yard performance this past Monday against the Saints.

Cam Akers RB – Rams

Week 2 Snap Shot

The second-round pick out of Florida State University has not had a great start to his rookie season. In Week 1 he was outplayed by Malcolm Brown, 18 carries for 79 yards and 2 TDs, vs. Akers’ 14 carries for 39 yards. In addition to being outplayed on the ground, Brown out targeted him four to one. Going into Week 2, Malcolm Brown appeared to be in the driver’s seat. However, when Akers left the game, Darrell Henderson stepped in and was the most effective back against the Eagles. Henderson gained 121 total yards and a TD on 14 touches, while Brown managed just 47 yards on 11 touches.

Going into Week 3, Akers is now nursing a rib injury and may not even see the field against the Bills. As things sit now, Akers is on the outside looking in, now the third RB for the Rams. I believe Akers is a very talented player, but he will need to get healthy and flash when given an opportunity to become relevant in 2020. Due to the likelihood of Akers seeing limited touches moving forward, his perceived value and ADP are certain to fall until he proves to be healthy and effective on the football field.

Buys

Jalen Reagor WR – Eagles

Season Snap Shot

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I am a big believer in Jalen Reagor as he was my Rookie WR1 going into the season. Through two weeks, production hasn’t been great for Reagor but also hasn’t gone all bad. Per the Season Snap Shot, Jalen Reagor has a modest 96 yards on six catches through two weeks. The production hasn’t caused any change is his perceived value, but some news broke on Wednesday that is sure to impact his value.

It was been reported that Jalen Reagor has torn the UCL in this thumb. I am no medical expert, so here are some tweets from some people smarter than me:

The good news is, according to this study Reagor should not be affected long term by this injury and will eventually have a strong and fully functional hand. 

However, with the news and Reagor out for at least several weeks, dynasty owners will see his value drop as he is not available to help teams score points. Due to the drop in his value, I believe Reagor is a buy candidate. Reagor is an incredibly talented player, that checks all the boxes. He has a strong analytical profile, is very athletic, and shows the versatility to win in multiple ways on film. He was drafted in the late first of most rookie drafts, but his value is going to take a slight tumble with him being injured and out indefinitely for the time. I would not be surprised if you would acquire Reagor for an early 2021 2nd round pick or a player in that range value-wise. If you are not competing this year or would like to add a high upside player, I would be sending Reagor owners offers especially if they are in win-now mode. Buy low on Reagor while his value has fallen but is sure to rise once back on the field. Here are a couple of offers I would feel good about value wise:

Jamison Crowder for Jalen Reagor

Or maybe even…

James Robinson for Jalen Reagor

Sells

James Robinson RB – Jaguars

As alluded to earlier, the value of James Robinson is on the rise, way up from where it was just months ago where you could get him for free off waivers. Robinson has been good this season but I am not certain he will have long term success past the 2020 season. When I am uncertain if I believe in a young player or not, I like to compare them to the top players at their position as college prospects. Here is how James Robinson stacks up the top 12 PPR RBs from the past 3 seasons via playerprofiler.com from their college profiles:

Robinson has a great BMI and was a megaproducer at Illinois State as indicated by his dominator rating. However, there are more red flags than bright spots here, due to the very low-speed score, YPC, and the fact that he was undrafted. When projecting Robinson long term, it is hard to see an undrafted RB with a poor speed score being “the guy” in Jacksonville for more than a year or two.

Due to uncertainty around Robinson’s long term impact, I believe selling him soon should be on your mind. You would make a huge profit if you acquired him a month ago as you essentially got him for free. In the market now, I believe you could fetch an early second-round value, and maybe even a last first-round value in the right situation. Selling Robinson is putting the classic stock mantra of “Buy Low, Sell High” to test, and worth doing in my opinion. Maybe you should shoot the Jalen Reagor owner an offer ;).

Thanks for tuning in for the second edition of the Rookie Stock Market. You can follow me on twitter @RookieWhisper for more dynasty, devy, and redraft content.