Dynasty Analysis
Unlike my usual articles, this one will have nothing to do with the NFL itself or even anything specifically related to fantasy football. Instead, I want to do a little preview of what’s to come from the DFF team during the 2020 season. We’re going to do weekly article series for dynasty, redraft, devy, IDP, and even DFS. Of course, we’ll cover breaking news and other topics outside of solely this content, but we’re committing to providing an excellent base of weekly content. Let’s go through what we will cover, department by department.
In this second edition of “Redraft Values,” I’ll be taking a look at five more players that are poised to outperform their ADPs. In this article, I’m looking at Robert Woods. What does Robert Woods have to do to earn some respect? He finished as the WR11 in 2018 and the WR14 in 2019, receiving 130+ targets in both seasons. Then, this offseason, the Rams traded away Brandin Cooks, opening up even more target opportunities. We should be expecting more of the same from Woods in 2020, yet he’s frequently available at the end of the 4th round. The most mind-boggling thing about Robert Woods’ ADP is actually his teammate Tyler Higbee’s ADP. Higbee is currently going as the TE8, in the eighth round, due to an incredible five-game stretch to end 2019 in which he put up four 100-yard performances. But did you know that during that same stretch, Robert Woods had a 16-game pace of 125 receptions and over 1,500 receiving yards?
Josh Allen, the most polarizing topic in the twittersphere, is an elite rusher at the quarterback position. Over the last two seasons, Allen ranks either first or second in every fantasy-relevant rushing statistic among quarterbacks. With a league-high 17 TDs and averaging a second-best 40-yards per game, Allen has a rushing floor that elevates his game to a fantasy QB1. So why does drafting Josh Allen as the seventh or eighth quarterback in a superflex startup leave such a foul taste in the mouth?
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. Now, I want to get into a potential late-round tight end breakout. Chris Herndon provides insane upside in 2020, and he’s going relatively unnoticed in drafts. Let me tell you why he might be worth selecting in 2020.
Go out and acquire Mike Gesicki while you still can. He’s an uber-athletic, 24-year-old tight end linked to an improving team and a promising rookie QB. With a strong 2020 season, his value could skyrocket into the top-10 or even top-5 at the position. He’s a top candidate, along with players like T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant, to become the next George Kittle or Mark Andrews.
Budda Baker has been a tackling machine since joining the NFL. In his three seasons as a pro, Baker has racked up 323 combined tackles. That’s over 107 tackles per season, all while missing two games folks! As mentioned in the profile section above, Baker is only 24 years old. Barring injury, the Cardinals stud is in line for multiple years of high-end production.
Tyrann Mathieu is a playmaker at every level of defense. Averaging over 80 tackles per year since 2017, the Kansas City star has also accrued six sacks and eight interceptions over those past three years. Mathieu also has two more years left on his contract, so his place in Kansas City looks secure.
The Dynasty Football Factory gathered once more to partake in a 12-team redraft league mock draft! But this time, we shook things up. We went with tight end premium scoring, as well as 0.25 points per carry. The tight end premium doesn’t raise the value of all tight ends, but it does create an even larger gap between the top and the rest. The point per carry adds a little bit more value to your bell-cow running backs. The biggest change? Third-Round Reversal.
Recently, the @DFF_Dynasty crew joined up for a redraft mock draft. The format was: start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 Flex, 6 bench spots, and PPR scoring. We also added a few twists, with 1.5 PPR tight end premium scoring, 0.25 points per carry, and third-round reversal drafting. As usual, I didn’t come into the draft with a set strategy. I planned to take value at my picks, and I wanted to have an open mind. However, I knew that the TE premium scoring would vault tight ends up on my board and that 0.25 PPC is a massive boost to volume running backs. Therefore, I decided to focus on securing running back and tight end early, especially since we only required two WR starters in this league.
Austin Hooper was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons in the third round of the 2016 NFL draft. Through his first four seasons in the NFL, Hooper has seen his targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns all increased year over year. His most productive season was in 2019. Hauling in 75 catches, 787 yards, and six scores in only 13 games. This offensive output had Hooper finishing the season at TE6 in PPR formats.
The nice thing about some of these takes is that they simply write themselves. Now, I’m sure you’re wondering why in the world I’ve placed a 26-year old RB who has logged 804 professional carries, in four years, as my #1 Tennessee Titans buy-low dynasty asset. That’s fair. However, if that’s the case, then you just simply don’t know Old Tom as well as I’d like. Over and over and over again I’ve continued to pound the table on the reality that my dynasty philosophy is much more win-now oriented than most. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not oblivious to the future and what that entails. But, I will also be damned if I’m ever going to enter a season removed from the possibility of hoisting that championship trophy.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet! Today it’s time for another rookie wide receiver. I believe that Jalen Reagor presents an extreme value in 2020 redraft leagues, and he could even be a league-winner. I’ve even made him my top rookie receiver in redraft formats. Let’s get into why I love Reagor in 2020.
While the majority of this profile has been gloomy, Everett is actually my favorite buy-low option at TE in dynasty leagues. The Rams will be facing a number of financial decisions with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, safety John Johnson, and Everett all entering the final season of their rookie contracts. The Rams could explore moving Everett in a deal before the trade deadline in an attempt to bolster their pass rush or improve their offensive line.
In a dynasty story, I’ll look at a single player and how his value has fluctuated over time, starting from their college profile. I’ll factor in his NFL stats and generally discuss what he did in each of his NFL seasons. Then, I’ll look at their 2020 prospects before wrapping it up with a final recommendation and dynasty strategy.
Today, it’s time for a deep dive into Mike Evans. Let’s jump right in!
I started playing fantasy football in 2006. That was the year LaDainian Tomlinson set the fantasy (and NFL) world on fire. He rushed for over 1,800 yards, caught 56 passes for over 500 yards, and scored 31 total touchdowns. Tomlinson scored a whopping 453 half-PPR points that season. He was the RB1 by a margin of 82 points. That fact is even more incredible when you realize that only eight running backs have topped 350 half-PPR points in the last 14 years, and two of those guys did it the same season as Tomlinson. That’s right, three of the top eight running back seasons of my entire fantasy football life came in that 2006 season. Of course, the league was different back then. Derrick Henry led all running backs in carries last year with 303. That would have tied for tenth in 2006. Tenth!
Recently, I wrote a quick, free dynasty profile on Derrius Guice. In that article, I covered Guice’s dynasty value after his recent release and how to handle Guice moving forward. Honestly, I’m tired of talking about Guice, since there’s a good chance he never plays another NFL down. However, Guice leaves behind a massive hole in the Washington backfield, which somebody will fill. Let’s go through their depth chart, player-by-player, and discuss each option in dynasty terms.
Davis can improve as much as he wants, but it won’t make a difference if the passing volume isn’t there. The Titans have finished 31st in pass attempts the last two seasons, largely due to a highly efficient running attack lead by Derrick Henry. He’s also taken a backseat to A.J. Brown, who demonstrated all season long why he’s the more talented receiver. Davis received 113 targets in 2018 prior to A.J. Brown’s arrival. But, now that those days are in the rearview he’s quickly drifting towards fantasy irrelevance. For argument’s sake, let’s assume there’s an increase in passing attempts in Tennesee (there won’t be) and Davis sees, say, 85-90 targets. He’d still be hard-pressed to crack the top 60 at his position!
The Patriots took Devin Asiasi in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. He was the second tight end taken, coming off the board in front of the likes of Adam Trautman and Harrison Bryant, both of whom had higher draft grades, according to NFL.com. However, it is not surprising to see the Patriots deviate from the status quo, and Asiasi brings some nice traits as a rookie tight end (even if they aren’t immediately apparent).
As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series.
Darius Slayton was drafted by the New York Giants with a conditional fifth-round pick in 2019. After missing the first two games with a hamstring injury, he started exceeding expectations. Over the next 14 games, Slayton started establishing a noticeable rapport with fellow rookie Daniel Jones as he led NY in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, yards per catch, and receiving first downs. It’s rare for a day-three pick to turn out and even rarer for one to turn in such an impressive rookie season. Slayton even finished second on the team in both catches and targets, trailing Golden Tate by one in each category. The combination of talent and opportunity was perfect for Slayton to impress from the jump.
After writing my redraft team breakdown series, I decided to start a new series as we approach the 2020 fantasy season. Every week, or probably more often than that, I’m going to bring you one fantasy sleeper representing a massive value in 2020 redraft leagues. All the links to previous articles are at the bottom of the article. In the first article, I detailed my methodology behind this series, so go back and read that piece if you haven’t yet!
For the next entry, I want to look at Jerick McKinnon. He’s currently left for dead in redraft leagues, but I think he’s worth highlighting as a sleeper. Finding late gems at running back can win you fantasy leagues, and McKinnon might be the 2020 version of a late-round steal.
Well, here we go. Right out of the gate Old Tom is dropping a pretty controversial bomb, in many circles. All I’d like to say is, prepare yourself, my friends. Although there was a bit of a rough patch back in 2018, I’ve fully forgiven Lenny and I’m ready to look to the future. If there’s a more hated-on player than Fournette, Old Tom would sure like to meet him. I’m not talking about your under-appreciated or forgotten assets. I’m talking about straight dislike, which Fournette appears to be the recipient of regularly.
The Broncos drafted Fant with the 20th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, making him the second tight end selected after his Iowa teammate T.J. Hockenson. At Iowa, Fant totaled 1,013 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final two seasons. While Hockenson broke out and outproduced him in 2018, Fant still had a solid season, improving in both receptions and yards. Hockenson was the top tight end for NFL teams due to his superior blocking skills, but Fant profiled as a speedy receiving threat. Fant was a perfect prospect for the new, pass-happy NFL.
Recently, I wrote an updated, free 1QB startup strategy guide. In that guide, I went through both general and specific positional strategies to help you through dynasty startups in 2020. Everything I said in that article will still apply to this superflex guide, so take a look at that story first before moving forward with this one. First, let’s break down what exactly a dynasty superflex league is. Unlike a normal 1QB league, you can start an extra quarterback in a superflex slot. As quarterbacks score more fantasy points than any other position, it is almost always beneficial to start a second quarterback if possible. There are only 32 starting quarterbacks at most in any given week, so there is an inventory scarcity at the quarterback position. Therefore, quarterbacks carry extreme value in superflex leagues compared to 1QB leagues.
Raheem Mostert should be atop all of the “sell high” lists across the industry. His current ADP alone is a sign to test the market. Reports indicate Jerick McKinnon is healthy and back in the fold while Tevin Coleman still looms in the shadows. I personally want no part of this backfield. A 49er’s running back played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once last year. Let’s not forget who Kyle Shanahan is and how he utilizes running backs. Remember Jeff Wilson scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and was “the guy”. Mostert had just a 32.2% opportunity share (total team running back carries plus targets) in 2019. Shanahan runs a running back by committee offense and that isn’t about to change for the Journeyman Raheem Mostert in 2020.
As we approach the redraft season, I want to begin a new series of recent risers and fallers based on events happening in the fantasy football world. In each article, I’ll give you two risers and two fallers. There are many reasons that a player could move up or move down, so I’ll cover various situations throughout this article series.