NFL Player Props: Week 4

Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!

As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.

In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!

Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!

With that, let’s get started!

Recap of Week 3

For one week at least, we’ve stopped the bleeding. After a 1-5 start, we went 2-1 on the week to go to a 3-6 start on the year. Definitely not ideal but hopefully this is the start of a trend moving forwards! 

As predicted, Malcolm Jenkins was heavily involved in all facets of the Saints’ shootout last Sunday night. He led the team in tackles with nine and easily cleared his over total. Anthony Miller certainly made us sweat it out. In the end, he came up with a clutch 28-yard touchdown catch to not only clear his over, but also make the Falcons the laughingstock of the NFL (until the Jets played, of course).

Unfortunately, the Patriots were too much for the Raiders, leading to Derek Carr throwing the ball much more often than I would’ve liked. He cleared the total of 244.5 quite comfortably. Additionally, Jimmy Graham dominated the red zone looks from the Bears, leaving Mooney out in the cold. We’re still looking for our first long-shot victory on the season, but remember it only takes one!

Last Week: 2-1

Overall: 3-6

Longshot: 0-3

Odell Beckham Jr. Over 4.5 Receptions (-155)

Dallas has allowed the fourth-most passing yards, the second-highest passer rating, and the most passing touchdowns to opponents thus far this season. While those numbers don’t necessarily paint the full portrait of the Dallas defense, it does mean one thing: teams like to pass against the Cowboys.

Odell dominates his team’s targets with 22 on the year, nine more than the next highest receiver Jarvis Landry. Additionally, he has received at least six targets in each of his team’s first three games, including a ten-target game in week one. This game is very likely to turn into a shootout, in which case I wouldn’t be surprised if both OBJ and Landry (+110) clear the 4.5 reception total.

Darrell Henderson to Score Anytime (-200)

The odds certainly aren’t great on this one, but you could do much worse for player props this week.

While it’s probably fair to be concerned about the Rams committee approach to the running back position, Darrell Henderson has dominated the red zone touches for the Rams’ offense. Last week, Henderson saw six red zone touches to Malcolm Brown’s one. On the season, Henderson paces the entire team with 11 red zone touches. It’s clear that the Rams look to the former Tiger to put up points when they’re inside the 20.

While the Giants do not necessarily give up many rushing touchdowns (one per game in 2020), they do allow the fifth-most rushing attempts per team. In a game likely to get out of hand quickly, look for Henderson to lead the team in rushing and score at least once on the day.

Dak Prescott Under 0.5 Interceptions (+108)

This one is interesting, as it comes down to a battle between two trends.

Until last week, Dak Prescott had a streak of 292 passes without an interception, setting a franchise record. Then Dak was forced to play catchup last week against the Seahawks and wound up throwing two interceptions in a losing effort. 

Cleveland did not even have an interception this year until Dwayne Haskins gift-wrapped them three last week. I consider it rather telling that the Browns couldn’t even force a mistake against a rookie making his second-ever start in week two. 

But I’m giving the edge to Dak on this one. Amari Cooper contributed to the first interception, while the second one came on a last-ditch heave to the endzone that you can see below.

Dak has been great at taking care of the ball dating back to last November. I believe he’ll look to start a new streak this week against Cleveland.

Week 4 Longshot Pick

Jonathan Taylor to Score First Touchdown (+525)

Our longshot bet of this week focuses on the Colts-Bears matchup.

By now, everyone has become acquainted with Colts’ rookie Jonathan Taylor. He has seen his workload rise considerably since week one and is now unequivocally the Colts’ featured rusher. Taylor leads all running backs in red zone touches, though has ceded some goal-line work to Nyheim Hines.

Meanwhile, the Colts are quietly the top-ranked DVOA pass defense and have been shutting down opponents since their week one slip up. Granted, those opponents were the Vikings and the Jets, but I doubt the Colts will give in as easily as the Falcons did last week. 

All that being said, I believe the Colts will strike first in this contest. When they do, look for the former Badger to be the one celebrating in the end zone.

For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.