Rookie Stock Market: Week 3

We’re three games into the season and we are starting to see what a lot of these rookies are made of. This past weekend the WRs were in the spotlight with several having very impactful games. However, there is a rookie WR who I am beginning sour on. Week 3 of the “Rookie Stock Market” begins below!

Risers

Brandon Aiyuk WR 49ers

Week 3 Snap Shot

After a quiet debut in Week 2, Brandon Aiyuk showed what he is capable of in Week 3. The 49ers used Aiyuk as both a receiver and ball carrier, as he went for 101 total yards and a score, as highlighted in the Snap Shot. It is definitely encouraging to see this production in just his 2nd time on the field. However, I believe expectations should be tempered. Deebo Samuel has returned to practice this week and will more than likely immediately eat into Aiyuk’s production once healthy and on the field. Another thing to consider here is the absence of George Kittle in Week 3. Reports are Kittle could return this week, and once Samuel is back, Brandon Aiyuk is more than likely just the 3rd receiving option for the 49ers. Aiyuk’s value is on the rise for the moment but could begin to plateau or fall once Kittle and Samuel are healthy.

Tee Higgins WR Bengals

Week 3 Snap Shot

Similarly to Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins saw his first real NFL action in Week 2 but didn’t make a meaningful impact until Week 3. In a matchup against the Eagles, Higgins was a monster in the red zone, securing two TD passes from his fellow rookie Joe Burrow (who has looked great, I should add). Although he only had five catches for 40 yards, his usage was impressive. On 79.2% of the team’s offensive snaps, he out-snapped both Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green. Additionally, he led the team in Air Yards Market Share. With A.J. Green seemingly struggling to return to play this year, Higgins could continue to have a big role in the Bengals offense, especially if Burrow continues to target Higgins often in the red zone. Higgins’s value is on the rise and could continue to rise if this current role is now the new normal.

Justin Jefferson WR Vikings

Week 3 Snap Shot

Going into Week 3 I was beginning to worry about the first-round selection of the Vikings. After failing to eclipse a 70% snap share in his first 2 weeks as a pro, and getting out produced by Olabisi Johnson, I was considered I would have to put my WR3 in the 2020 class in the “Fallers” section. However, after his Week 3 performance, the needle is pointing up. Olabisi Johnson took a backseat in Week 3 with just an 8% snap share, and Justin Jefferson exploded onto the scene. Jefferson gained a large chunk of this production on a 71-yard touchdown, and his very encouraging to see him get 9 targets. As highlighted in the Snap Shot, Jefferson’s 30.5 points were good for the second-highest of all WRs in Week 3. As mentioned, Jefferson needed this to save this value, but Week 4 will be big for the direction his stock will go moving forward. In a Week 4 matchup against the Texans, I expect Adam Thielen to be more involved, seeing more than just the 3 targets he got in Week 3. In Week 4, we should see to more regularly expect out of this Vikings offense and the usage of Justin Jefferson.

Fallers

Lynn Bowden Jr. WR Dolphins

Week 3 Snap Shot

I was very high on the all-purpose third-round pick out of Kentucky going into the draft. I was a little skeptical when the Raiders drafted and listed him as an RB, and after being traded to the Dolphins and only playing a total of four snaps so far this season, I am officially worried about his value as a dynasty asset. I was not super surprised when Bowden was inactive Week 1 considering he was traded to the team about a week before the first game of the season. It can take some time to learn a playbook, especially for a rookie. It was encouraging to see him active in Week 2, but I am officially in panic mode after he was inactive once again in Week 3. I was not alone in the love for Bowden going into the season. I and others in the community loved his do-it-all skill set. As a sophomore playing WR, Bowden had an impressive 38.5% dominator rating with 745 yards and five touchdowns. Then as a junior playing QB/RB, he led the SEC in rushing with 1,468 yards and 13 touchdowns. However, it appears the transition to the NFL has not been easy Lynn Bowden Jr. His lack of time on the field is putting a real damper on his value. Bowden may be a jack of all trades, but a master of none, making it hard for him to get playtime. I am very sad to say the needle is pointing down for Lynn Bowden Jr.

Buys

KJ Hamler WR Broncos

Week 3 Snap Shot

Similar to the “Risers” of this week, Hamler is a WR that has had a slow start to the season but is beginning to make some noise. Hamler simply doesn’t have the same hype as the first round WRs but he has still been impressive in aspects. Since returning from injury in Week 2, Hamler has out-snapped fellow rookie and first-round pick Jerry Jeudy. With Courtland Sutton out for the year due to injury, targets are wide open in Denver. Due to the opportunity, Hamler is set to have for the rest of the season, I believe he is a sneaky buy. He has yet to have a big game, but with the usage, he is seeing, the production should come. Hamler was going in the 3rd round of most rookie drafts and still has value in that ballpark. By the time you read this Hamler will have played on Thursday night against the Jets, in which he could produce. However, if he has yet to have a big game, his buy-low window will still be open. 

Sells

James Robinson RB Jaguars

Week 3 Snap Shot

The Jaguars’ RB was my sell last week, and he is still my sell this week. However, selling Robinson is dependent on your contention in your league. If you are competing for a title this year, Robinson is a great asset for your team and you should continue to start. But if you are not competing for the championship, I would be pushing James Robinson to the contenders hard. Even after another great fantasy performance in Week 3, I still doubt Robinson as a long term fantasy asset. As I mentioned last week, undrafted rookies with poor speed scores are very rarely long term producers, and on top of that his snap share % from the last two weeks is concerning, only 51% and 45% of the snaps. If you are in a situation to sell Robinson you should be able to fetch mid-last first-round value for him. As I floated last week, I believe Jalen Reagor is a great trade target, and according to my poll, the value is pretty close:

Thanks for tuning in for another edition of the “Rookie Stock Market”. I hope you see you again next week! Follow me @RookieWhisper for more content.