For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep myself accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 3 Recap
A great week as we went 2-1 on our in-depth picks and 11-5(!) overall! After some average 9-7 starts this was shot in the arm we were looking for. Our strategy of picking against the Jets continues to work to perfection and (spoiler alert) we’re going to roll with it again this week.
Unfortunately, Biscuits could not keep her hot streak going and fell to 2-1 on the season. No worries though, she told me she already has her next pick locked and loaded!
In-depth picks: 6-3-0
Overall: 29-19-0
Broncos (-2.5) at Jets
Backup quarterback? Shaky offensive line? Injured wide receiving corps?
Don’t care, go Broncos!
Jaguars (+3) at Bengals
The Jaguars looked pitiful against the Dolphins last Thursday as they limped to a 31-13 loss. However, the Jaguars were totally depleted on offense. Star receiver D.J. Chark and starting center Brandon Linder were lost to injury. Meanwhile, starting left tackle Cam Robinson was ejected for contacting an official.
I know much was made of the Jaguars tanking this season, including by yours truly. Minshew has shown that if the team is healthy, they at least have a puncher’s chance. Chark was trending towards playing before last week’s game. If he suits up, I imagine the Jaguars can at least stay within three points of the Bengals.
Stay wary if this line drops to +2.5 or +2, but at +3 points I’ll take the Jaguars.
Seahawks (-6.5) at Dolphins
Three straight road teams for our in-depth picks? Maybe I’m playing with fire, but it still feels pretty safe when one of the picks involves Russell Wilson. Wilson is playing out of his mind right now and is the current favorite to win NFL MVP.
Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins got their first win against the Jaguars last week. With Wilson at the helm, however, the Seahawks still feel like a team that is a tier above. Give me the team that has rolled to 3-0 both straight up and against the spread.
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below.
Browns at Cowboys (-4.5)
Saints (-4) at Lions
Chargers at Buccaneers (-7.5)
Colts at Bears (+2.5)
Cardinals (-3.5) at Panthers
Ravens (-12.5) at Washington
Giants (+13) at Rams
Bills (-3) at Raiders
Patriots at Chiefs (-7)
Eagles (+7) at 49ers
Falcons at Green Bay (-7), but take the Falcons first half because…Falcons…
Vikings at Texans (-4)
(At the time of publishing, no lines for the Steelers-Titans or Vikings-Texans games have been published due to COVID-19 testing. The article will be supplemented with those lines if/when more information is released. 10/02/2020 – this story has now been edited to include the Vikings-Texans game.)
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
