With two or more franchise-altering QBs in the 2021 NFL Draft Class which teams have a chance to land the future NFL stars?
Tanking for Trevor
Trevor Lawrence is perhaps the best quarterback prospect ever. Coming out of high school Lawrence was rated the second-highest among quarterbacks behind only Vince Young historically. The 6’6” and 220 lbs. Clemson superstar led his team to a National Championship as a true freshman over the great Alabama Crimson Tide. To this date, Lawrence has led his Tigers to a 27-1 record with the sole loss coming against the best statistical offense in college football history. In those 28 games, Lawrence has thrown for a ridiculous 70 TDs versus only 12 interceptions, which is good for a 5.8 TD to interception ratio. He also averages 8.9-yards per attempt, and amazingly all of these statistics are going to increase in a conference only play season. NFL draft experts Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Dane Brugler all have Lawrence as the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Failing for Fields
Let us not overlook Justin Fields, who 247 Sports’ have rated just 0.01% lower than the aforementioned Trevor Lawrence, and the third-best prospect at the quarterback position of all time. Fields spent his freshman season at Georgia behind Jake Fromm, but when unexpectedly Fromm came back for his senior season Fields transferred to Ohio State and lit college football on fire. Let us remember that until this play, Fields was on pace to outduel Lawrence and make it to the college football playoff.
https://twitter.com/DynastyDiagnos1/status/1298644161856442369?s=20In 2019, Fields threw for 41 TDs versus only three interceptions on an average of 9.2-yards per attempt. He also showed off his 4.43-second 40-yard dash speed with over 480 yards and 10 TDs. Over this extended offseason, Fields and his family reportedly switched to a plant-based diet which resulted in Fields feeling “faster than ever”. His father Pablo revealed that he sees a Jordan-like focus and determination. Some NFL Draft experts have Fields ranked as low as eighth in the upcoming Draft, but let’s recall the last quarterback to be compared to Jordan, was the third quarterback drafted in his class and led his team to the playoffs in every season for which he was healthy come playoff time.
The 2021 NFL Draft features two or three franchise-changing quarterbacks depending on whether North Dakota State’s Trey Lance declares after playing just 17 games as it is unlikely he would both play during their spring season and declare for the 2021 NFL Draft just 12 days after their last scheduled game. This draft looks very similar to the 2012 NFL Draft with a generational talent going first overall as Andrew Luck did, as well as athletic phenom Robert Griffin III being selected right after him. I can see Lawrence and Fields going in the first two selections and uplifting two lucky franchises to be NFL Championship contenders.
Winless Teams and the NFL Playoffs
Since 1980 there have been 181 teams to start with a record of 0-3, of those teams only six made it to the playoffs which are just 3.3%. This season the Giants, Jets, Falcons, Broncos, Texans, and Vikings have all started with a 0-3 record, the Bengals and the Eagles can be looped into this group with their 0-2-1 records respectively. Please note that there will be two additional playoff spots this season, so in time that percentage will increase, but based on how these teams have looked in their first three games making the playoffs is improbable for all of these teams except for the Eagles who are only a half-game back in the AFC East.
The Model
To explore who should be Tanking for Trevor, or Failing for Fields we are going to take into account every team’s first three-game actual record, we are then going to superimpose their Week 4 lines as an implied win or loss, then we will finish the season superimposing wins based on Warren Sharp’s preview.
Cincinnati Bengals
Based on this methodology the Bengals are on pace for the number one overall pick. Having drafted Joe Burrow with the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft the Bengals would not select either Lawrence nor Fields, instead, they would either select the standout OT Penei Sewell out of Oregon with the pick or trade back for what we could assume would be the biggest trade in NFL Draft history.
Carolina Panthers
The winless Carolina Panthers would edge out the one-win Jaguars in this situation because the actual data points have more weight than the implied data points. New HC Matt Rhule would certainly entertain the possibility of taking Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick. Teddy Bridgewater has a cap hit of $23M in 2021, however, they have a potential out in 2022 with only a $5M dead cap hit. This would also allow Rhule the flexibility to either start Lawrence immediately or allow him to sit behind Bridgewater to start his career. Though landing with the offensive-minded Rhule would be a great connection for Lawrence, the Bridgewater cap hit in the coming two years could prevent the Panther from trading a massive value in draft picks to select Lawrence when they could select Fields and keep all of their picks.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars now are the third-most likely team to land the Lawrence sweepstakes with a 13% implied win percentage. The Jaguars have all signs pointing towards them tanking by reading the tea leaves on their roster moves this offseason, but Gardner Minshew may just be good enough to play them out of contention. If the Jaguars do land the first overall pick or find themselves with the opportunity to select Fields, I would hope that they make drastic changes in their organization. I would like to see Caldwell replaced as GM after the number of mistakes such as poor cap management and sub-optimal draft selections. We would also like to see Doug Marone fired after years of reportedly being on the hot seat. As well as Jay Gruden being let go as he is clearly not the answer as he has a record of 35-49-1 as a head coach. Gruden has a spotty record at best dealing with quarterbacks, starting with his inability to put Robert Griffin III in situations to stay healthy, letting the next franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins to walk in free agency, and his refusal to work in-line with the front office and putting Dwayne Haskins in the worst situation of any of his prior quarterbacks. Though Jacksonville will likely have the opportunity to select either Lawrence or Fields it is my hope for the players’ sake that they don’t end up in Jacksonville.
New York Giants
Moving down the list we find an interesting situation if the winless Giants hold the first overall pick. The Giants used the sixth-pick of the 2019 NFL Draft on Daniel Jones so it seems unlikely that they would use a draft pick on another quarterback just two years later. In spite of this, we are projecting only three implied wins it seems likely that the Giants would be in a position to draft one of the two superstar quarterbacks, however, it is more likely that they would select a position of need and build around Daniel Jones or trade-down to acquire more picks. This would open up the door for teams to trade into the pick to draft a franchise quarterback.
New York Jets
The other MetLife Stadium residents also have three implied wins for this season and have a much more compelling reason to select a new franchise quarterback. Sam Darnold was selected as the third pick in the 2018 NFL Draft but has not been able to will the Jets to the playoffs. There is a duality to this issue as we can question if Sam Darnold is the issue, or if it’s the HC Adam Gase? The Jets brought in Joe Douglas as their GM after he put together one of the best rosters in the NFL in Philadelphia. If the Jets do land a top pick I would expect them to let Douglas build around Darnold to answer the question of whether he is a franchise quarterback after a season in which Darnold’s top receivers are an often-injured Jamison Crowder, a sixth-round Braxton Berrios, a 33-year old Chris Hogan, and a promise but raw tight end in Chris Herndon. It seems much more likely that the Jets would add an offensive playmaker such as Ja’Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, or Rashod Bateman.
Miami Dolphins
Also tied with three implied wins are the Miami Dolphins. Like the Bengals, they used a top-five draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft to select Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa, or as we know him, Tua. We are still yet to see Tua this season as he is learning the playbook coming off a season-ending hip injury at Alabama. All accounts convey that the Dolphins are tanking “the right way” adding lots of valuable picks around their rookie quarterback and it’s extremely unlikely that they would select another quarterback just the year after with such a limited sample size of measuring Tua. The Dolphins landing the number one pick in this draft though is one of my favorite hypothetical scenarios though as they would likely be able to land another offensive playmaker along with more future picks.
The Washington Football Team
The final team with three implied wins is the Washington Football Team, and the probability of winning more than three games and landing the first overall selection is very slim. The team used a first-round draft pick in 2019 to select Dwayne Haskins, however, they have since brought in Ron Rivera to rebuild the franchise that suffered an unbearable offseason this year. Though Rivera was brought in specifically to mold Haskins, a new staff is always willing to go in a different direction and build “their team”. The Washington Football Team has a promising young receiver in Terry McLaurin and an analytic darling at running back in Antoni Gibson, this would be a very exciting franchise to bring in Trevor Lawrence with the first pick. It would also be very exciting for this franchise to select the uber-mobile Fields and correct the mistakes made with Robert Griffin III.
Detroit Lions
As we move down the list further, we are now looking at teams that likely need to trade into the first pick to select Lawrence or draft Fields from their original position. The Detroit Lions and their four implied wins are the next on this list. They theoretically could trade their will-be 33-yard old quarterback for considerable returns and pair Lawrence or Fields with the best receiving core of the teams we’ve covered to this point. Kenny Golladay is breaking out and compliments Marvin Jones Sr.’s skillset, and the young tight end T.J. Hockenson is developing as one of the league’s best. In order to be excited about either of these quarterbacks we would like to see Matt Patricia out but throwing to those receivers and with promising rookie running back D’Andre Swift would be tantalizing.
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons find themselves with five implied wins but still find themselves winless in this young 2020 season. They look as if they are allergic to fourth-quarter leads as they have blown back-to-back double-digit leads. Matt Ryan is tied to the team until 2023 at quarterback, but like Stafford, he still would demand a considerable return if they found a trade partner. Though it’s very unlikely that they would pull this off it is also tantalizing to picture Lawrence or Fields throwing to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley in a high-octane offense. I expect that the Falcons will turn their season around and get back on the winning track, though they are currently in-line for a top-eight pick in a draft class that fits their team needs nearly perfectly.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles can’t seem to get out of their own way in yet another injury-riddled winless season thus far. The Eagles recently rewarded Carson Wentz with a lucrative four-year extension and after drafting wide receiver Jalen Reagor in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft they are still very needed at the receiver position. It is improbable that they would select a quarterback in any of the upcoming NFL Drafts barring very unexpected events unfolding in Philadelphia.
Denver Broncos
The next winless team this season with an implied win total of six is a remarkably interesting landing spot for one of these franchise quarterbacks. Their six implied wins do not account for the injury of starting quarterback Drew Lock, which makes the possibility of them remaining in the top-eight picks much more likely than this model accounts for. The local understanding is that Drew Lock is the Broncos franchise quarterback but the national outlooks on Lock are much bleaker. Without Drew Lock and star receiver Courtland Sutton, the Broncos could struggle to stack up wins. The prospects of Trevor Lawrence throwing to the receiving core of Sutton, first-round pick Jerry Jeudy, second-round speedster KJ Hamler, and the athletically-gifted tight end tandem of Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam just want the Broncos franchise needs to compete with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs over the next decade. If they don’t end up landing the first-pick they also may have the ammunition to trade up for it, and if not Justin Fields also an incredible option allowing the Broncos to compete as well. Both scenarios would be great matches for both the prospect and the franchise.
Houston Texans
Following the Broncos is our second-last winless team through three weeks in the Houston Texans. The Texans have just inked Deshaun Watson to a four-year $160M contract extension and Watson has proven to be a franchise quarterback. The Texans have seven implied wins, which would mean they would win more than half of their remaining games, which seems very likely. The Texans opened the season against definitely the two best teams in the NFL in the Chiefs and the Ravens along with the very promising looking Steelers, arguably the three best teams in the AFC. I expect the Texans to turn their season around and make a strong push for a wildcard playoff spot. This would make them just the seventh-team to make the playoffs after starting 0-3.
The Remaining Teams that fit the Model
After the Texans, all of the remaining teams have implied win percentages of 50% or better so we do not need to go into more detail on the Chargers, Vikings, Cowboys, or Saints. There are two more teams with implied season finishes of six or fewer wins that could use a change at quarterback. One is a franchise that has had a change of quarterback rumors floating around since they inked Jon Gruden to a ten-year contract. The recently relocated Las Vegas Raiders can cut starting quarterback Derek Carr with only a $2.5M dead cap hit next season and are building an exciting young receiver group with speed demon Henry Ruggs III and all-around talented Bryan Edwards. The Raiders though are playing far better than expected this season and only winning three of their final thirteen games would be unexpected, but we all love Gruden quarterback rumors.
Long Shot – Chicago Bears
The final team worth bringing up is undefeated at this point, despite having to make a quarterback change at halftime in their week three victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Mitchell Trubisky is clearly not the Bears franchise quarterback as the team declined the former number-three overall pick’s fifth-year option along with trading for former Superbowl MVP, Nick Foles. In this model, the Bears, like the Raiders are only implied to win three more games bringing their season to a 6-10 finish which historically has been awarded a top-ten NFL Draft pick. After making Trubisky the first quarterback selected over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson, another chance at a franchise quarterback would be ironic for the team that has been searching for the answer at quarterback since slinging Jay Cutler left the team in 2016.
Bringing it all together
Based on this model, the teams with the most likelihood of drafting atop the 2021 NFL Draft are the winless teams with low implied win totals that also have not recently used a high draft pick on a quarterback. This leaves the teams that are most likely to add one of these franchise-altering quarterbacks to be the winless Broncos who are starting their third different quarterback in just four games this Thursday, the one-win Carolina Panthers led by Teddy Bridgewater, and the one-win Jacksonville Jaguars who have been the most discussed team when it comes to tanking.
My Favorite Scenario for Trevor Lawrence
I have made it very clear in detailing the Jaguars that this is my least favorite landing spot for Lawrence or Fields and that the Broncos are my favorite spot for either. My ideal scenario that has a likely probability of actually happening is for the Broncos to finish in last place for the 2020 season and draft Trevor Lawrence. This is a perfect fit for the Broncos from a franchise perspective as it would give us years of an in-division rivalry between Mahomes and Lawrence, as well as providing the Broncos receiving core with substantial fantasy upside with the upgraded quarterback.
My Favorite Scenario for Justin Fields
For Justin Fields, I would prefer that the Carolina Panthers punt the rest of the season and either get awarded with the second-overall pick or put themselves in the position to draft Fields if he does fall past the second spot. Fields would be a great match with former first-round picks D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey giving the Panthers substantial offensive firepower as they rebuild their defense.
The Losers of The Tanking for Trevor and Failing for Fields Sweepstakes
The Jaguars are the most likely team of these three to be able to rattle off multiple wins behind the eclectic play of Gardner Minshew, and Minshew has proved that he is a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL and pending how he performs for the remainder of the 2020 season should have the opportunity to remain the Jaguars starter in the future. As a consolation prize, the Jaguars could potentially draft North Dakota State’s Trey Lance if he declares. Otherwise, if 2021 proves to not be Minshew’s year with Jacksonville there are several promising quarterbacks in the 2022 draft class such as Sam Howell, Spencer Rattler, and Kedon Slovis.
With or without Trey Lance, the 2021 quarterback class is elite, and many franchises will be defined over the coming decades by decisions that they either made or failed to make in this NFL Draft.
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