Week three is when you know. If a guy has been bad for the first two weeks, it can be easy to chalk it up to small sample size. If a guy is bad for three straight games, you can’t pretend anymore. The story is the same with breakout players. Calvin Ridley, D.K. Metcalf, and James Robinson? Yeah, they’re for real. Joe Mixon and Carson Wentz? Time to move on. Now that you know, the next move is to adjust your expectations. Let go of whatever pre-draft notions you have and take an honest look at the players on your team. And then… get to dealing!
Zach’s Sell: Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ)
OBJ has all of the talents in the world. At this point, it is clear that he is quite possibly the third option in the Cleveland Browns offense. We all knew that Kevin Stefanski liked to run the ball during his time as the offensive coordinator in Minnesota but we weren’t sure if that would translate into his head coaching gig with the Browns. However, 36 rushing attempts later in week three, and we can tell that this Browns team wants to run. This certainly elevates guys like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt but I’m afraid we are in for another average season for OBJ. Through three weeks OBJ has yet to clear 75 yards in any game and has only one receiving touchdown. If you can capitalize on the name value and the talent, look to get a good return for OBJ now.
Will’s Buy: Lamar Jackson & Deshaun Watson
This one is simple, so I’ll keep it short. Lamar Jackson, who is still a top-2 QB going forward, is currently QB12. Watson, who should bounce back after a tough opening schedule, is currently QB17. The Jackson manager probably spent a second or third-round pick to get him. Jackson’s slow start may have that manager sitting at 1-2, especially if he or she got hit by one of the many week two injuries. That represents a buying opportunity. The story on Watson is much the same. If you have an emerging star burning a hole on your bench, throw them out there and see what you can get.
Zach’s Sell: The Detroit Lions running backs
D’Andre Swift was thought to be a good sleeper pick this season and some thought he was trending towards taking over the Lions’ backfield in week three. Wow, were we misled. Swift’s snap count has gone down in each of his first three weeks from 44% to 34% to 9%. Swift only played in six snaps in the Lions’ week three game. I’ll repeat that once more, D’Andre Swift only played in six snaps in week three. The other running back is the seasoned veteran Adrian Peterson. Peterson has had a couple of decent running games through their first three weeks but has yet to find the end zone. He does not project as the long-term answer and you don’t get the sense they’ll keep Peterson involved for too much longer. Lastly, we have the forgotten man, Kerryon Johnson. Johnson has been unusable in fantasy to this point but does have a rushing and receiving touchdown through his first three games. Swift is trending down, Peterson is trending up and Kerryon is stagnant. At this point, there is no telling who the Lions will use and when. To avoid the season-long headache that this backfield will cause, I believe you should be looking for someone to take these backs off your hands.
Will’s Buy: Allen Robinson
This window may have just slammed shut after Robinson posted a 10 catch, 123-yard game on 13 targets this week. Still, Robinson is currently WR18 in half-PPR even after that explosion. He had a touchdown overturned on Sunday, so this breakout (if you can call it that) could have been even bigger. With Nick Foles taking the reigns in Chicago, the Bears WRs should be able to produce on a more consistent basis. That means that Robinson should be back to his top-ten ways from here on out. Even before the Bears benched Trubisky, Robinson saw nine targets in both of his first two games. If his manager is nervous that this week three game was a blip and not a sign of things to come, you’ve got an opportunity to poach a top guy. I’m even looking to buy Anthony Miller, who scored a TD in week three and had a second overturned, now that Foles is in charge.
Will’s Sell: Todd Gurley
Gurley hasn’t been terrible, which is why you should still be able to sell him. He’s RB23 in half-PPR and he’s scored double-digit points in two of three games. He hasn’t broken 100 yards from scrimmage in any of those games and, worst of all, he’s just not involved in the passing game. Gurley has three catches for three yards on seven targets so far. Matt Ryan is fourth in the NFL in pass attempts. If Gurley isn’t going to be involved in the passing game, he becomes a TD-dependent RB2 who you’d rather have as a flex. Atlanta has the sixth-highest scoring offense. It’s cause for concern that Gurley isn’t a bigger part of that. The Falcons have a nice string of matchups coming up, so your window should last a few weeks, but you should start having those conversations now.
Zach’s Buy: Hunter Renfrow
The Raiders’ wide receivers are dealing with some injuries. Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs may not be at full strength for week four but Hunter Renfrow definitely is. The second-year receiver out of Clemson had a day in week three, bringing in six catches on nine targets for 84 yards and a touchdown. Renfrow has sticky hands and elite shifty route-running skills which helped him build the trust of his quarterback. Renfrow will never be the sexiest name to have in your wide receiver corps but he is one you can usually trust to have solid PPR value. As the season goes on I believe Renfrow will only increase in value. He is a great receiver to fill out your bench for now, and deploy on upcoming bye weeks. He is a guy that I am looking to buy low on before next week.
How’s your squad looking after three weeks? Have you been able to swing any deals to improve your roster? @DFF_Ztrain and @Dynastywalrus want to hear all about it. Hit us up on Twitter!
