Dynasty Analysis
The season is almost upon us! In FFPC leagues, there are barely two weeks left before we have to cut our rosters down to 20, including a kicker and a defense. On some of my dynasty squads, I am facing some steep cuts and difficult choices. How do I go about deciding which players to cut? Can I make some two-for-one trades that clear roster spots for me, or players for picks? Am I going to be fielding a competitive team that can contend for the title? Will there be a couple of impact players available on the first waiver run, and if so, will I have room to roster them? What about some later-round rookie picks that flashed during the preseason and I want to develop them?
The Jaguars offense has looked putrid over the first two games of the season as they battle through the learning curve of a new offensive system with a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a new running back, both drafted in the first round, thus setting the stage for some large expectations. However, their first-round running back, Travis Etienne may not even get to see the field this year after suffering a Lisfranc injury in Monday night’s game against the Saints.
I am here today my mafiosos to give you the best draft strategy for Redraft out there. It involves drafting a running back in every round for the first three. Why do you ask? Raise your hand if you have lost a fantasy championship or just a game in the past by eight points or less. I am going to venture a guess unless you are like my idiot neighbor who keeps taking only Kansas State Alumni or Chicago Bears in our home league that loses by double digits on the regular, that is everyone.
Through his first 25 career games, Montgomery had yet to break out as he was averaging just over 54 rushing YPG, 3.6 YPC, 15.9 receiving YPG, and 7.2 YPR. In his last six games, he’s averaging an astonishing 99.7 rushing YPG, 5.2 YPC, 4.0 YPR, and 37.7 YPR. His late-season push last season moved him up to the RB4 spot in PPR leagues as he served as the RB1 during the last six weeks of the 2020 season.
Most rookie drafts are done by now, though there may still be a few going on. If you are reading this and you still have some late-round draft picks for this year, don’t give them up just yet! You may think they are worthless or that you don’t have room on your roster for these assets, but there can and are league winners to be found in the third round or later of rookie drafts.
Tight end is one of the most infuriating positions to navigate when it comes to draft day. Should you spend an early draft pick and secure one of the elites? Or should you sit back and wait for the later rounds to try and find that diamond in the rough that is basically free? I have approached both strategies, and I don’t believe there is a right or wrong answer. It comes down to what you, the fantasy manager, prefer in your roster construction. Obviously, the league settings may alter one’s strategy, but both have their benefits. This article will highlight one sleeper, one breakout, and one bust at the tight end position. Hopefully, this can narrow down some options and pave the way for how you go about the tight end position.
As draft season inches closer, it’s important to have an idea of who you want to target and when you want to target them on draft day. Below, you will find a list of “My Guys” who I will be heavily targeting at their respective ADPs in all of my redraft leagues. Keep in mind, you want to make sure you are drafting players for positional value, instead of reaching and potentially diminishing your team’s chances right out the gate. Without further adieu, let’s get started.
In dynasty, one of the most under-appreciated assets is the bench stash running back. These cheap assets can climb up depth charts and become useful to either your starting lineup or for trade. These types of players can be acquired for a fourth-round rookie pick or less in most leagues but can return a second-rounder or more in trades if they become a starter. Even if it’s only for a couple of weeks. For example, last season I was able to trade Ryan Nall and a third-round rookie pick for a second-round rookie pick when he took over for David Montgomery. The hardest part is finding which players are the best bets to not only remain on a team but also climb a depth chart. This article will go over certain metrics you can look for when deciding between these late-round or free-agent RBs.
While we do not want to overreact to the preseason debut for the five first-round rookie quarterbacks, we do have new data points to review. Let’s review how these rookies looked in the preseason debut both on the stat sheet and how they looked on all of their productive plays.
In 2QB leagues, Derek Carr is sitting as QB25 and is the 102nd player off the board. He isn’t very flashy and in dynasty, he would offer minimal value. But when you take away the questions of long-term value he offers a high upside play as you close out the 8th round. He is a great second or 3rd QB in 2QB leagues, especially if you’re drafting a rookie such as Justin Fields or Trey Lance, who will likely not start for their team at the opening of the season.
The fantasy community had high hopes for a Jonnu Smith breakout last season and did in some ways despite some injuries and the Titans’ infamously low passing volume. He still finished as the TE15 in PPR and TE9 in standard, but 2020 was also a terrible year for tight ends. Smith got most of his work from his dominance in the red zone, finishing number five in targets and scoring at a 20% rate with eight touchdowns. His 448 yards on 41 receptions certainly left truthers wanting more.
Two days ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars sent stand-out linebacker Joe Schobert to the Pittsburgh Steelers in a move that further underscores the rebuild under Head Coach Urban Meyer’s new regime. News of the compensation trickled out a day later; just a 2022 sixth-round pick landed Schobert. Clearly, the move was a salary dump for the Jaguars.
Finding a true bell-cow running back in the NFL is hard to come by these days. Most teams elect to utilize multiple backs for various situations. Whether it is goal-line work, third down, or simply just to keep the defense guessing, more running backs are getting involved on offense at a more frequent rate. While plenty of value and fantasy points can come from running backs on the same team, there are a few backfields that I am avoiding at all costs.
In Redraft 1QB leagues I always try to fade QB and hunt upside “late”, knowing I can more than likely pick up a solid and serviceable QB off waivers if needed. The QB that fits the “late” pick with lots of upside is the Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. The sophomore QB is currently going off the board as the QB12, but his upside is much higher than that. In the three games that Hurts started and completed in 2020, he averaged 22.45 PPG. That slots in just below Lamar Jackson’s 22.71 PPG, (Redraft QB4), and Justin Hebert’s 22.55 PPG (Redraft QB7).
CeeDee Lamb was a box-stuffing college prospect at Oklahoma. His Breakout Age of 19.4 ranks in the 80th percentile, while his 38.1% College Dominator ranks in the 77th percentile. Additionally, Lamb recorded a 97th-percentile College YPR and a 79th-percentile College Target Share. In other words, Lamb was highly targeted and extremely productive and efficient with the targets that he received–oh, and he did it all at a young age. To say that Ceedee Lamb was a “good” prospect would be a drastic understatement.
Ryan Tannehill revitalized his career when joining the Tennessee Titans in 2019. After taking over in Week 7 as the starting quarterback in 2019, Tannehill never looked back. From Week 7 on, Tannehill was the quarterback three with 225 fantasy points, averaging 22 points per game. The following year, he finished as the quarterback seven with 350 fantasy points in 16 games. Even after these stellar finishes, people are still doubting him. This is evident by his ADP, which, according to DFF Rankings, is the 11th quarterback off the board. I am here to tell you that you are too low on Tannehill.
I’ve long been a huge fan of the HBO series “Hard Knocks” since its premiere in 2001. Outside of the expected silliness ranging from former Jets’ HC Rex Ryan’s “let’s get a snack” quote to Vince Wilfork’s “naked overalls” episode with the Texans, the show always does a fantastic job of hyping me up for the NFL season. So when the Cowboys were chosen for this year’s series, I mildly cringed at the idiocy that was inbound. And, spoiler alert, Mike McCarthy delivers in droves via an Austin Powers movie clip and fake bravado that brought on a mild panic attack. Yes, it’s insulting to the viewer but even more so to Mike Meyers who’s probably on the line with Jerry Jones negotiating compensation as I write this.
As we approach the peak of draft season, I have been doing tons of mocks and best-ball leagues. These experiences have led me to know who my favorite players are this year, or “My Guys”. In this piece, I will share one guy from each position that I have been heavily targeting in these drafts.
Film vs Analytics is one of the contested debates in the fantasy community. Both are important and one hand washes the other. Scouting and watching film are the foundation of evaluating talent. If data was the only indicator of success, NFL scouts wouldn’t need a scouting department. They would hire a Google Intern to run algorithms for them. On the flip side, data can help you make unbiased decisions and adjust your rankings by having a macro-level view of a pool of statistics. It’s important to understand what coaches look at on the field or in training camp because they decide if a player will even see the field. Not your algorithm. Moreover, learning scouting and theory can help you understand why players perform the way they do and what makes your data sing or choke.
Ryan Tannehill is my absolute favorite “late-round” quarterback this season. On a PPG basis, Tannehill has finished as the QB9* in each of the past two seasons. He also ranks first in yards per attempt, second in passer rating, and ninth in passing TDs during that stretch. With a 28-game sample size in Tennessee, it’s fair to say that Tannehill has fully rebounded from his below-average seasons in Miami. He is now a high-quality NFL starting QB. He’s also a sneaky rusher who has added over 15 rushing yards per game and 11 total rushing TDs during his stint with the Titans.
Two weekends ago the #DFFArmy organized its annual staff redraft league composed solely of DFF writers/editors as owners. Upgrading from 12 to 14 owners this season, your author willingly joined in the fun. The settings of the league are pretty conventional: a 0.5 PPR league with a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 3 W/R/T, 1 K, and 1 DEF. Passing TDs are worth six points while rushing and receiving first downs are worth 0.5 points. There is also a 0.1 point per carry bonus and a 0.5 TE reception bonus.
Earlier this week, Tashan Reed of The Athletic reported that Las Vegas Raiders’ running back Jalen Richard sustained a foot injury after returning from the COVID-19 list and will be out indefinitely. The report had zero mention of what injury Richard suffered but to be immediately labeled as “out indefinitely” I have to assume it was fairly severe. Plus, foot injuries for skill position players are never a good thing as we have seen in the recent Carson Wentz saga and with Joe Mixon in season’s past.
Our hearts dropped this week as Vikings’ star Wide Receiver Justin Jefferson went down hard onto his left shoulder. Jefferson then left practice and was seen holding his wrist to support his shoulder. A classic sign of clavicle or collarbone injury. Thankfully, we didn’t have to speculate long as only a few hours later, Adam Schefter reported that Jefferson “has a sprained AC Joint” and it was considered “nothing serious, per source, but there would be further testing this weekend.” So right away, that tells us that Jefferson had an immediate radiograph or x-ray and it was determined that he did not fracture his collarbone which would have knocked him out for 6-8 weeks.
I don’t typically play in many redraft leagues these days but I’m always game for our yearly DFF Staff Redraft League. This year, with our growing staff, we decided to challenge ourselves a bit more with an increase to 14 teams instead of the standard 10-12 team league which presented difficult decisions from the get-go. I was granted the lovely honor of picking from the dead center of this draft, the 1.07 spot. I wouldn’t have chosen it this way and was titling from the moment I was on the clock for my first pick but I was surprisingly thrilled at the completion of this draft, so let’s dive into it.
Hurray for the start of Training Camps!! We can finally begin overhyping Twitter highlights while we listen to the sweet voice of Liev Schreiber give hope to Cowboys fans via Hard Knocks. So as we squeeze in a few more startups before the regular season starts, let’s dive into Part II of our Startup Strategies series. Make sure to check out Part I where I focus on drafting a strong core pick-by-pick through the first nine rounds of a real draft I participated in, and how you can take my strategy and deep dive to draft a roster competitive enough to win now without having to rebuild later. In Part II we’ll take a broader look at the full roster post-draft to evaluate depth by position and consider immediate and future roster moves needed to bring home The Ship.