With NFL Kickoff just five days away, we are truly entering the homestretch of this Kickoff Countdown series. In this entry, I’ll be breaking down five “dead zone” RBs that I believe you should be targeting in your fantasy drafts. The RB “dead zone,” if you aren’t familiar, is generally recognized as the back half of Round 3 through the end of Round 6. There is some evidence to suggest that RBs in this zone of the draft are less likely to return value on their ADP. In this article, I’ll be making the case for five exceptions to that rule.
1. Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Among all RBs that played eight or more games in 2020, Chris Carson was the RB11 in PPG. He was the RB12 in 2019 under that same criteria. Oh, and he was the RB16 in 2018. The Seahawks hired Shane Waldron, the Rams’ pass game coordinator in 2020, as their new offensive coordinator this offseason, which suggests the offense could go more up-tempo. Meanwhile, the team brought in zero competition at the RB position. Now, I know what you’re thinking: Chris Carson can’t stay healthy. Considering he’s missed just seven games over the past three seasons, I think we can put that narrative to rest. The truth is, at the end of the third round, Chris Carson is being drafted at his floor.
2. D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
If D’Andre Swift was on any other NFL team, his ADP might be a full round earlier. As a rookie, Swift had the 10th highest target share of any RB in the NFL. He was 13th in targets, 13th in receptions, and 11th in receiving yards, as well. With names like Tyrell Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown sitting atop the WR depth chart, Swift is in line for an even higher target share this season. Furthermore, Swift has proven that he can make the most of his touches. He ranked 5th in Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, 6th in Yards Per Route Run, and 6th in Yards Created Per Touch last season according to PlayerProfiler. Even if Jamaal Williams has a sizable role, and even if the Lions’ offense is utterly putrid, D’Andre Swift is capable of finishing inside the top-10 with an Alvin Kamara-esque season.
3. Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
In 2020, Myles Gaskin had the 8th-highest snap share and 11th-highest opportunity share at his position. When he returned from injury against the Raiders in Week 16, Salvon Ahmed was coming off an incredible performance–122 yards and a TD against the Patriots. The coaches didn’t care. Gaskin immediately recaptured that backfield, touching the ball 19 times and racking up over 160 yards. So, no, I don’t really believe Brian Flores when he says that this backfield will be a “situational committee.” Even if Gaskin cedes a little work to Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed, he can still replicate his 2020 performance in this offense, which should be much improved. Tua is healthy now, and Fuller and Waddle can keep opposing defenses on their heels. Give me Gaskin at the end of the fifth round every time.
4. Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals
Kenyan Drake carried the ball 239 times in 2020. That’s 24 more carries than James Conner has handled in any season of his career, and his health has only seemed to deteriorate further in recent years. Whether Conner suffers an injury or not, Chase Edmonds will handle a lot more attempts in 2021 than he did in 2020. Meanwhile, he’s one of the best receiving RBs in the NFL by the numbers. Not only did he finish 7th in targets, 7th in receptions, and 6th in receiving yards at the position last season, but he was also incredibly efficient, ranking 8th in Yards Per Touch, 9th in Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, and 11th in Yards Created Per Touch according to PlayerProfiler. I’m all in on Edmonds at his sixth-round price.
5. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
We see it every season: a rookie RB starts slow and then lights the league on fire in the second half of the season. I believe Javonte Williams will keep that streak alive in 2021. He was one of the most elusive RBs in college football history, and he has a three-down skill set. Remember, the Broncos traded up for Williams and took him very early in the second round. They know what he brings to the table, and they know that he is the future at the position. Melvin Gordon may be able to hold onto the lead role for a few weeks, but, if I had to guess, I would say that Williams is leading that backfield in touches by Week 5. Oh, and the Broncos face the Lions, Bengals, and Raiders in three of their last four games. Javonte Williams is a potential league-winner going in the middle of round six.
Thanks for reading this article! Look me up on Twitter at @fantasyfreezer if you’d like to hear more from me. I love answering fantasy questions, discussing trades, and engaging in friendly debates, so be sure to drop in and say hello.
