Hello everybody and welcome to DFF’s Kickoff Countdown series! For each of the 12 days leading up to the first NFL game of the season, our staff at DFF has been releasing an article based on how many days are left. Today we are only three days away and that means I, @DFF_JoeMem, am here to bring you three wide receivers that I’d rather have at ADP over their higher ADP teammate in Superflex Dynasty leagues. Let’s dive in!
Laviska Shenault over DJ Chark
This one may almost seem like low-hanging fruit if you’ve paid attention at all this offseason. However, according to Sleeper’s August 31 ADP, D.J. Chark (85.8) is still being drafted ahead of Shenault (92.2). That means I need to keep on beating the drum for Shenault until it changes. There have been a lot of changes in Jacksonville this offseason. There’s a new coach, there was a new running back prior to Travis Etienne’s injury, and there’s a new quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. The one offensive weapon’s name that keeps coming up though? That’s Shenault, and for good reason! He’s been making plays all offseason like the one below:
Oh, and also like this:
The second-year offensive weapon out of Colorado is a problem. From a route-running perspective, Matt Harmon has described him as D.J. Moore, but there’s a clear difference in physicality between the two. That’s not a knock on Moore, but more praise towards Shenault who led all NFL wide receivers with 22 broken tackles. By the way, that was only in 14 games.
I haven’t said much about D.J. Chark, but you know who else hasn’t? The Jacksonville Jaguars. Chark underwent surgery for a hairline fracture in his finger in early August and hasn’t been able to log any reps with his new quarterback. This could put him at a huge disadvantage in a battle to develop chemistry early against Shenault. I expect Shenault to fully take over starting week one and he’s not going to look back. If you can find anyone out there that believes in Chark over Shenault, find a way to get Shenault on your team.
Courtland Sutton over Jerry Jeudy
Like the Jaguars, the Broncos also have some new pieces in town, mainly recently named starting QB Teddy Bridgewater. Despite the similar changes, I feel completely different about these two wide receivers than I do the ones in Florida. Sutton with an ADP of 83.8 and Jeudy with an ADP of 71.6 are both players I’d love to have on my dynasty teams. So why do I favor Sutton? Two reasons: 1) Alpha build, 2) Proof of performance.
According to one of our analytics gurus at DFF, @Dynasty_IM, wide receivers can have a wide range of outcomes. But, those outcomes shrink as we take into account size, prospect status, and production. Production is the main input that shrinks the range of outcomes as we see who these players are on the field (see a thread on his work HERE). We’ve seen Sutton perform already as a wide receiver in the NFL, and with a lackluster quarterback at that. He finished as a top 20 WR in his second year in the NFL before tearing his ACL in the first game of 2020. The combination of that production, his size at 6’4 216 lbs, and his prospect status coming into the NFL as an early 2nd round pick put him in some incredible company when looking at his shrunken range of outcomes in Ian’s model. Some players on that list? Michael Gallup, D.J. Moore, Kenny Golladay, DeAndre Hopkins…and Calvin Johnson.
Ian’s same model projects Jerry Jeudy as a Beta with a range of outcome names such as Marquise Brown, Christian Kirk, Percy Harvin, Santonio Holmes, and DeSean Jackson. There are some great names on that list, too. However, when we’re talking about the range, Sutton’s comparables have both a higher ceiling and a higher floor. I touted Jeudy as the best route runner in the 2020 WR rookie class going into last year and I think he probably needed some time to adjust in the NFL. I fully expect him to take the next step as a player this year. But, if Courtland Sutton is fully healthy and is going a full round after Jeudy in drafts, the answer is easy for me. I’m taking Sutton. We should all be excited to see him back on the field making plays like this one:
Diontae Johnson over Chase Claypool
The last team I’ve picked is the Pittsburgh Steelers and their extremely crowded wide receiver room of Johnson, Claypool, and Smith-Schuster. First, the elephant in the room… oh Juju. What happened? From being one of the youngest superstars in the game and a top dynasty pick to being drafted as the WR3… on his own team. He currently has an ADP of 86.6 on Sleeper. Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool are being drafted very close to each other with Claypool having the edge 70.6 to 73.6.
I have a hard time understanding how this is even possible. Diontae Johnson just led the Pittsburgh Steelers with 144 earned targets. Yes, he earned them by both having Big Ben’s trust and by getting open. Johnson had 16 more targets than Smith-Schuster and 35 more than Claypool while missing three and a half games due to injuries! That’s insane. It’s absolutely absurd that the fantasy community could possibly value any receiver over Johnson on the Steelers.
“But what about the drops? Big Ben is going to lose faith in Johnson.” Didn’t seem to bother Ben last year as he peppered Johnson with double-digit targets in seven of the last nine games of the season. In the playoffs when it mattered most, Johnson had 16 targets to Claypool’s seven. Johnson had some ugly drops in primetime games last year which continue to be overvalued by the fantasy community. Here is the list of most drops in the NFL last season:
Jeudy, Lamb, Hill, Kamara, Metcalf, Diggs, and Moore are all on that list and yet the fantasy community isn’t driving any of their ADP’s down. Throw out all of the drops and focus on the abilities of Johnson and it’s clear that he’s the wide receiver to roster on the Steelers. He and Claypool are close, but not only should they flip, but Johnson should also be unquestionably ahead.
To show this isn’t just about Johnson, even though it could be, let’s dive in on Claypool. Claypool flashed big time in a few moments last year, leading him to finish as a top 24 wide receiver. He had four of his 11 touchdowns in week five against the Eagles, giving a large boost to his season totals. This is something Claypool brings to the table. He has that big-play ability and can go up and get it when Ben launches those 50/50 balls.
As long as Roethlisberger is the quarterback, Claypool will have those opportunities. But, there are a lot of questions around him as well. Why did the Steelers stop using him as a rusher by the goal line after week six despite him scoring touchdowns in back-to-back weeks off of jet sweeps? He only had one rush from weeks 11-17 for a total of -6 yards. Why did his production fall off a cliff after week 11? He scored 10 of his 11 touchdowns in those games and then only had one from weeks 12-17. Claypool undoubtedly had a great season, not only for a rookie but for any NFL wide receiver. However, questions around his usage changes and production dip after he started on fire last season need to be answered before he earns his current ADP spot.
Once again, I have no doubts who I’m choosing 10/10 times if I’m on the clock and it’s between Johnson and Claypool. Give me the target hog every single day of the week and hopefully twice on Sundays! I’ll leave you with this:
Well, there you have it! Those are three of my favorite receivers currently being drafted behind their teammate. What do you think? Do you like Jeudy, Chark, or Claypool more? Hit me up @DFF_JoeMem on Twitter to let me know! And be sure to sign up for the DFF monthly subscription so you can have access to my Redraft Rankings and be one step ahead of the competition!
