In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
This week was a flurry of football with high-profile matchups every day for six straight days between the NFL and college football. We got Trevor Lawrence back for the Clemson offense, however, Justin Fields and the Ohio State Buckeyes will not be playing football for three weeks due to outbreaks. This epitomizes a roller coaster ride of a season, but we remain optimistic and that optimism holds strong with not one but three breakout performances this week!
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK – BIJAN ROBINSON, RB, TEXAS
THE PROSPECT
Standing at 6’0” and 222 lbs. Bijan Robinson is the greatest running back to come from Arizona ever. Texas’ true freshman was the first player in Arizona history to win the Ed Doherty Award, given to the best high school football player each year. He is the all-time rushing leader in the state with 7,036 yards and 114 TDs. Robinson is a five-star prospect according to every ranking system, and 247 Sport’s top running back. Robinson was drawn to Texas because of his strong relationship with running backs coach Stan Drayton. Drayton has coached up college backs Arian Foster, Carlos Hyde, Ezekiel Elliott, and Matt Forte with the Bears. Drayton joined Texas in 2017 but has not recruited a workhorse back to Austin, until the arrival of Bijan Robinson. Despite the questionable defense of the Big 12, the conference has produced top-end running backs like Barry Sanders, LaDanian Tomlinson, Ricky Williams, Adrian Peterson, Thurman Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Jamaal Charles, and most recently Joe Mixon. Over the next three years, Robinson will work to get in this prestigious grouping.
THE ANALYSIS
Robinson was an honorable mention about a month ago, but really pulled it all together this week with over 200 yards from scrimmage and three TDs against the Kansas State Wildcats. This was the first touchdown of Robinson’s collegiate career, and each of the scores showed glimpses of greatness, a greatness that everyone across the devy community has seen growing since his recruitment cycle.
Bijan Robinson has great size, speed, vision, and contact balance which is everything that we want to see from a college running back. Robinson has distanced himself as Texas’s top offensive weapon, already leading the team in yardage as a true freshman. It is going to be very fun watching Robinson develop under Drayton’s guidance into one of the best running backs in the nation.
Sunbelt Sensation – Corey Rucker, WR, Arkansas State
The Arkansas State Red Wolves are on the map based on the sensational receiver play of Jonathan Adams Jr. the senior with 79 catches for 1,111 yards and 12 TDs rising up NFL Draft boards. Adams suffered a hairline fracture in his leg and has been ruled out for the remainder of the season. While this is terrible for his draft stock it opened up opportunities for the younger Red Wolves. Corey Rucker grabbed that opportunity and made the most out of it. Rucker pulled down nine catches against Louisiana-Monroe for an absurd 310 yards and four TDs. The 6’2” and 190 lbs. true freshman receiver was rated as the 214th wide receiver in the 2020 recruiting class.
Rucker could not be stopped as the Red Wolves rolled to a 48-15 win. His 310 yards is the new FBS record for receiving yards in a game for a true freshman. Rucker is a fun player who is worth a flier in deep devy formats.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK HEAT CHECK
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, the 6’2” redshirt freshman quarterback Grant Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. This week was Marshall’s final regular-season game, and it was one to forget. Wells’ threw for five interceptions in the team’s loss to Rice. Wells finished his redshirt freshman season completing 63% of his passes for 1,839 yards and 16 TDs versus nine interceptions. He also added value on the ground rushing for 160 yards and two TDs. We will look for Wells to make another improvement coming into 2021 and clean up some of the bad decisions that he left on the field in his first season as Marshall’s starting quarterback.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
Rattler’s first season as the Oklahoma starting quarterback has been a rollercoaster of a ride. Though Rattler has settled down from his early questionable late-game decision making. Rattler has played very well in Lincoln Riley’s offense but will have to continue improving to hold off 2021 commit Caleb Williams. In his redshirt freshman season, Rattler completed 68% of his passes for 2,593 yards and 25 TDs versus only seven interceptions. Rattler has also been effective on the ground rushing for 103 yards and four TDs. Rattler has a rocket for an arm and should be drafted very early in any devy drafts this season where he is available. Next season will be crucial to see if Rattler can distance himself from Howell and Slovis (and potentially Mac Jones coming back for a senior season) as the 2022 QB1.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. At that point in the early season, I was ready to proclaim Gibbs as the top running back in the 2023 class, however, due to the amazing talent throughout the class, it’s going to be a rotating door until we get closer to the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs has continued to produce on the ground as well as an effective receiver. On the ground, Gibbs has 460 yards and four touchdowns to go along with 24 catches for 303 yards and three TDs through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs has now accounted for 24% of Georgia Tech’s total yards from scrimmage.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations. Also, Kansas State’s true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn has been one of the best pass-catchers in college football this season.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie continues to produce after his breakout performance, however, Devonta Smith has totally stolen the show making his run at the best wide receiver in the country. He is by far the favorite to win the Biletnikoff Award and the only wide receiver who has odds available in the Heisman race. Metchie has been no scrub himself, but Alabama has not needed the firepower with easy wins each week. Metchie is still averaging an impressive 18.5 yards per catch on his season and has totaled 31 catches for 590 yards and six TDs. In terms of his advanced metrics, Metchie is still producing above the thresholds in dominator rating and yards per team pass attempt, despite Devonta Smith’s onslaught of SEC defenders. Metchie is making up 20% of Alabama’s passing yardage and 22% of their passing scores for a dominator rating of 21%. He is also averaging 2.36 yards per team pass attempt. And remains in the conversation amongst the top receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft class.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back has emerged as the 2023 RB1 since Week 5 and has maintained that position however it’s an unbelievable deep and talented class. Bigsby’s hard running style and his refusal to be tackled by a single defender have led to 642 rushing yards and five TDs. He has also proved that he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield with 11 catches for 84 yards. Bigsby has been producing while clearly dealing with an injury, though his weekly status will not alter his status as the top running back in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Week 6 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The 6’3” and 232 lbs. sophomore receiver is having an incredibly impressive season. Burks has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, with 804 receiving yards and seven scores on his 49 catches. While the counting stats are not indicative of a dominant season, within the context of the Arkansas offensive attack, Burks is having a very efficient season. Burks has a dominator rating of 35% and has a yards per team pass attempt of 3.01. Burks will challenge David Bell for the top wide receiver spot in the 2022 eligible class.
Week 7 – Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
After Mertz’s breakout performance throwing 21 times for 248 yards and five TDs, he had tested positive for COVID-19. And Wisconsin had to postpone football activities for multiple weeks due to the outbreak. On the season Mertz has completed 63% of his passes for 807 yards and eight TDs versus four interceptions. He has not been as impressive as his initial breakout game, but keep him in the back of your mind in a deep devy Superflex format.
Week 8 – DJ Uiagalelei QB, Clemson
Uiagalelei faced many of the same issues with fourth-ranked Notre Dame as he did with BC in terms of his defense allowing the opponent to get out to a multiple score lead early on. After leading Clemson back into the game for the second straight week, he fought them to a second overtime before Notre Dame finally came away victorious. Uiagalelei had another efficient week completing over 65% of his passes for 439 yards and two TDs. He also showed his strength with another rushing touchdown. We expect Clemson’s superstar Trevor Lawrence to be back for their next game, however, in his two-game sample size, Uiagalalei has distanced himself as the 2023 QB1 over Bryce Young.
Week 9 – Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland
The 6’0” and 205 lbs. five-star wide receiver shocked the college football scouting complex when he chose to play at Maryland as opposed to LSU among 26 other prestigious programs. Jarrett was rated as the fourth-best receiver in his class and the top-overall player from Washington D.C. He reportedly ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash at The Opening in D.C. Jarrett is a tantalizing combination of speed, quickness and possesses elite-level route running despite his youth. Jarrett became the first true freshman to score two-or-more TDs to go along with over 100 receiving yards since Stefon Diggs. Jarrett had a true breakout game against Penn State on a five-catch game, those catches went for 144 yards and two TDs and Jarrett emerged as Taulia Tagovialoa’s most dangerous pass catcher. After his great performance in Maryland’s third-game, Jarrett now has a dominator rating of 30% and to go with an impressive 2.37 yards per team pass attempt. Jarrett did not play in the team’s matchup against Indiana last weekend had to cancel their game against Michigan State due to COVID.
Week 10 –Terion Stewart, RB, Bowling Green
Terion Stewart is a true freshman running back for the Bowling Green Eagles. Stewart stands 5’9” and 216 lbs. and was a three-star prospect from Sandusky, Ohio. Stewart is not a player that we were expecting big things this year from, as he was rated outside the top 2,000 prospects and as the 144th running back prospect overall. In three games, Stewart has rushed for 295 yards and four TDs. Because he has only played in three games he is still a candidate for a redshirt season if Bowling Green chooses to do so.
Week 11 – Tyler Shough, QB, Oregon
After a breakout game, Shough and the Oregon Ducks were upset in the game formerly known as the Civil War by the Oregon State Beavers and a surreal effort by junior running back Jermar Jefferson. Jefferson will surely be highlighted as a draft stock riser this week coming off his 226-yard performance. Shough on the other hand struggled mightily against the Beaver defense, he threw two interceptions and two more passes that should have been intercepted had the defender made the play. Oregon’s season came crashing to the ground this week with their second straight loss, making it virtually impossible to make the playoff. Shough has still been impressive this season completing 63% of his passes for 1,398 yards and 11 TDs versus just four interceptions.
Week 12 – Zachary Evans, RB, TCU
Zachary Evans has been one of the top players in the 2020 recruiting class, but after a lengthy recruitment that finally landed him at TCU, he has emerged as the Horned Frogs’ featured back. Evans stands at 5’11” and 195 lbs. has a body nearly ready for NFL action, and his skill set is emerging as one of the most difficult matchups in the nation. Evans was a five-star prospect across all ranking platforms. Along with having the prototypical running back body type, Evans is a consummate athlete who ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash in high school and conveyed his elusiveness with a positional best 3.91-second shuttle time. Evans was the top recruit that the Horned Frogs have ever received according to 247 Sports, including Eagles phenom receiver Jalen Reagor, and is the best running back for TCU since LaDainian Tomlinson. On the season, Evans has 55 touches for 361 yards and two TDs. With under a 15% share of the team rushing attempts, Evans’s advanced stats are not going to be very impressive this season, but I expect him to take a stranglehold over a bell cow position.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
We will continue to keep our eyes on these young future NFL stars and identify them as soon as they break out to keep you ready for your devy drafts as well as making sound trades on an early breakout before the rest of your league catches up.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
