In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
This week was a flurry of football with high-profile matchups every day for six straight days between the NFL and college football. We got Trevor Lawrence back for the Clemson offense, however, Justin Fields and the Ohio State Buckeyes will not be playing football for three weeks due to outbreaks. This epitomizes a roller coaster ride of a season, but we remain optimistic and that optimism holds strong with not one but three breakout performances this week!
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK – ZACHARY EVANS, RB, TCU
THE PROSPECT
Zachary Evans has been one of the top players in the 2020 recruiting class, but after a lengthy recruitment that finally landed him at TCU, he has emerged as the Horned Frogs’ featured back. Evans stands at 5’11” and 195 lbs. has a body nearly ready for NFL action, and his skill set is emerging as one of the most difficult matchups in the nation. Evans was a five-star prospect across all ranking platforms. Along with having the prototypical running back body type, Evans is a consummate athlete who ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash in high school and conveyed his elusiveness with a positional best 3.91-second shuttle time. Evans was the top recruit that the Horned Frogs have ever received according to 247 Sports, including Eagles phenom receiver Jalen Reagor, and is the best running back for TCU since LaDainian Tomlinson (online platforms were not ranking high school prospects back in Tomlinson’s day).
THE ANALYSIS
Evans had his first game with more than ten carries, and he was able to put together his first career 100-yard game. In fact, Evans rushed for exactly 100 yards on his 12 carries on an average of 8.3 yards per carry. It is very exciting to see Evans finally getting action as the featured back, which we presume would have happened faster in a more normal season. Evans was the 2020 All-American game MVP, and as we can see from this showing of strength he is ready to put TCU on his back and emerge as one of the best backs in the country over the next three years.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYERS OF THE WEEK – WILL ROGERS, QB, MISSISSIPPI STATE AND JADEN WALLEY, WR, MISSISSIPPI STATE
A pair of true freshmen have been running Mike Leach’s air raid offense nearly perfectly, and these two went off against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss. Will Rogers threw 61 passes and completed 45 of them, which is at a 73.8% rate. The Rogers air raid went for 440 yards through the air and three scores. True freshman Jaden Walley led the receivers with nine catches for 176 yards, none more difficult than this one-handed grab and maintaining control after a big hit from the Ole Miss defensive back.
While staying in the Egg Bowl, Elijah Moore is expanding on a breakout junior season of his own. In this game, Moore broke the Tennessee Titans phenom receiver A.J. Brown’s Ole Miss reception record for a single season. Back to the Mississippi State freshman duo, Rogers replaced K.J. Costello as the starting quarterback and has gotten better in every single game he’s played. Rogers has completed 73.8% of his passes this season, matching his performance this week, for 1,312 yards and six TDs. In Mike Leach’s offense, we will never expect high average yards per attempt, this is true for Rogers at 5.7 yards per attempt. Walley has really taken on an extended role for Mississippi State in the last two games, racking up 16 catches for 291 yards and one score. Bringing his season total up to 35 catches for 462 yards and the aforementioned single TD. Walley was the 29th ranked athlete in the 2020 class but is making a name for himself by means of his offensive production.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK HEAT CHECK
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, the 6’2” redshirt freshman quarterback Grant Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. Wells has since led the Thundering Herd to a 7-0 record in the quinquagenarian season from their tragic plane crash. Completing just over 65% of his passes in these six games, Wells also has thrown for 1,674 yards and 16 TDs versus only four interceptions. As we reported after his first game, Wells has decent speed having run a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, with that speed Wells has been able to add 155 yards and two TDs on the ground. Wells’ 1,674 passing yards as well as his 162.2 passer rating are second-best in the CUSA. Wells also leads the CUSA in completion percentage as well as passing TDs. Wells is not going to be drafted in the deepest of devy leagues, but a strong finish to this season as well as continued success next year could get his name some traction among NFL scouts.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
Rattler’s first season as the Oklahoma starting quarterback has been a rollercoaster of a ride. Rattler had one of his best games of the season in the Bedlam Series this week against rival Oklahoma State. Rattler completed over 70% of his passes surpassing the 300-yard mark with four TDs passing to go with another score on the ground. Rattler’s performance this season is showing that he belongs in the QB1 discussion within the 2022 eligible class with Howell and Slovis. Rattler has 2,319 yards passing to go with 22 TDs versus six interceptions. Here is how the three promising quarterbacks stack up on the season.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. At that point in the early season, I was ready to proclaim Gibbs as the top running back in the 2023 class, however, due to the amazing talent throughout the class, it’s going to be a rotating door until we get closer to the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs has continued to produce on the ground as well as an effective receiver. On the ground, Gibbs has 460 yards and four touchdowns to go along with 24 catches for 303 yards and three TDs through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs has now accounted for 24% of Georgia Tech’s total yards from scrimmage.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations. Also, Kansas State’s true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn has been one of the best pass-catchers in college football this season.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie continues to produce after his breakout performance, however, Devonta Smith has totally stolen the show making his run at the best wide receiver in the country. He is by far the favorite to win the Biletnikoff Award and the only wide receiver who has odds available in the Heisman race. Metchie has been no scrub himself, but Alabama has not needed the firepower with easy wins each week. Metchie is still averaging an impressive 19 yards per catch on his season and has totaled 31 catches for 590 yards and six TDs. In terms of his advanced metrics, Metchie is still producing above the thresholds in dominator rating and yards per team pass attempt, despite Devonta Smith’s onslaught of SEC defenders. Metchie is making up 20% of Alabama’s passing yardage and 25% of their passing scores for a dominator rating of 22%. He is also averaging 2.4 yards per team pass attempt. And remains in the conversation amongst the top receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft class.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back has emerged as the 2023 RB1 since Week 5 and has maintained that position however it’s an unbelievable deep and talented class. Bigsby’s hard running style and his refusal to be tackled by a single defender have led to 566 rushing yards and five TDs. He has also proved that he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield with 11 catches for 84 yards. Bigsby has been producing while clearly dealing with an injury, though his weekly status will not alter his status as the top running back in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Week 6 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The 6’3” and 232 lbs. sophomore receiver is having an incredibly impressive season. Burks has been a nightmare for opposing defenses, with 598 receiving yards and six scores on his 39 catches. While the counting stats are not indicative of a dominant season, within the context of the Arkansas offensive attack, Burks is having a very efficient season. Burks has a dominator rating of 32% and has a yards per team pass attempt of 2.5.
Week 7 – Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
After Mertz’s breakout performance throwing 21 times for 248 yards and 5 TDs, he had tested positive for COVID-19. Wisconsin came back this week after their multiple-week postponement as Mertz led the Badgers past Michigan, however, the Badgers could not contain Northwestern in a 17-7 loss. On the season, Mertz is completing 65% of his passes for 605 yards and eight TDs compared to three interceptions. After two lackluster performances, Mertz is playing himself out of contention as the top quarterback in his 2022 eligible class.
Week 8 – DJ Uiagalelei QB, Clemson
Uiagalelei faced many of the same issues with fourth-ranked Notre Dame as he did with BC in terms of his defense allowing the opponent to get out to a multiple score lead early on. After leading Clemson back into the game for the second straight week, he fought them to a second overtime before Notre Dame finally came away victorious. Uiagalelei had another efficient week completing over 65% of his passes for 439 yards and two TDs. He also showed his strength with another rushing touchdown. We expect Clemson’s superstar Trevor Lawrence to be back for their next game, however, in his two-game sample size, Uiagalalei has distanced himself as the 2023 QB1 over Bryce Young.
Week 9 – Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland
The 6’0” and 205 lbs. five-star wide receiver shocked the college football scouting complex when he chose to play at Maryland as opposed to LSU among 26 other prestigious programs. Jarrett was rated as the fourth-best receiver in his class and the top-overall player from Washington D.C. He reportedly ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash at The Opening in D.C. Jarrett is a tantalizing combination of speed, quickness and possesses elite-level route running despite his youth. Jarrett became the first true freshman to score two-or-more TDs to go along with over 100 receiving yards since Stefon Diggs. Jarrett had a true breakout game against Penn State on a five-catch game, those catches went for 144 yards and two TDs and Jarrett emerged as Taulia Tagovialoa’s most dangerous pass catcher. After his great performance in Maryland’s third-game, Jarrett now has a dominator rating of 30% and to go with an impressive 2.37 yards per team pass attempt. Jarrett did not play in the team’s matchup against Indiana this week, we will be looking into whether the absence is due to injury or is COVID related.
Week 10 –Terion Stewart, RB, Bowling Green
Terion Stewart is a true freshman running back for the Bowling Green Eagles. Stewart stands 5’9” and 216 lbs. and was a three-star prospect from Sandusky, Ohio. Stewart is not a player that we were expecting big things this year from, as he was rated outside the top 2,000 prospects and as the 144th running back prospect overall. Stewart came into the game and was listed as the Eagles’ third running back on the depth chart. In two games, Stewart has found the end zone on 16% of his 24 touches. Stewart has a stat line of 23 carries for 204 yards and four TDs to go along with a three-yard catch. Steward did not play for Bowling Green this weekend, this may be an indication that the plan to redshirt him for an additional year of eligibility.
Week 11 – Tyler Shough, QB, Oregon
After a breakout game, Shough and the Oregon Ducks were upset in the game formerly known as the Civil War by the Oregon State Beavers and a surreal effort by junior running back Jermar Jefferson. Jefferson will surely be highlighted as a draft stock riser this week coming off his 226-yard performance. Shough on the other hand struggled mightily against the Beaver defense, he threw two interceptions and two more passes that should have been intercepted had the defender made the play. Despite the poor performance, Shough is still top ten among power five quarterbacks in yards per attempt and passer rating. Shough will have to finish strong this season to crack into the first-round conversation, I expect he will come back in 2021 to refine his game and play against a lower level of competition at quarterback in college football.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
We will continue to keep our eyes on these young future NFL stars and identify them as soon as they break out to keep you ready for your devy drafts as well as making sound trades on an early breakout before the rest of your league catches up.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
