In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
Devy Breakout Player of the Week Heat Check
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. In the two games since, Wells has failed to match his debut mastery as he has thrown zero TDs and one interception since, and has failed to pass for over 200 yards in a game. Wells had a bounce-back game this weekend, leading the Thundering Herd to victory over Louisiana Tech by completing nearly 80% of his passes for 227 yards and two TDs along with one interception.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
After a blazing start to his career, Rattler’s inexperience has been the talk of many as the Sooners were sitting 1-2 heading into this week. The issue is the two losses can be attributed to Rattler’s late-game decision making. We expect these young quarterbacks to still need to develop especially in their first couple of starts. Rattler turned it around in Week 4 by leading Oklahoma to a four-overtime victory in the “Red River Rivalry”. Rattler has a pro-caliber arm and his statistics have backed that up. In his four games, Rattler has put up 1,186 yards to go with 13 TDs and five interceptions.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. Since that he has looked just as good, if not better as a college prospect compared to Kamara. Gibbs and his Yellow Jackets were trounced 73-7 by Clemson and their very impressive 2020 team. Gibbs failed to find the end zone in this matchup, however, he was able to compile over 100 yards from scrimmage. Gibbs has worked his way up to the 2023 RB1 and it will take extremely impressive play to dethrone him.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
Metchie has been on the quiet side in the two games after his breakout performance. Against the third-ranked Georgia Bulldogs Metchie was able to find the endzone early to get Alabama back on track. As the third option in the receiving game, we will keep an eye out for big games from this promising sophomore receiver.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back followed up his breakout game by surpassing 100 yards on the ground for the second consecutive week along with finding the end zone for the first time in his young career. If you haven’t had the opportunity to watch Bigsby play, make sure to check him out next week as Auburn looks to bounce back against Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss.
This week we will highlight a pair of SEC wide receivers, one is breaking out onto the scene for his team this season, and the other is breaking into a tier that many believed was impossible to crack heading into this season.
The Breakout Player of the Week – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The Prospect
Treylon Burks is a sophomore receiver for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Standing at 6’3” and 232 lbs. Burks is built like former SEC receiver D.K. Metcalf. Burks hails from Warren, Arkansas so his collegiate commitment was to stay within his home state. The four-star receiver is making an impact in his second year for Arkansas is quickly becoming the Razorbacks featured receiving threat.
The Analysis
Against Mississippi Burks hauled in 11 passes for 137 yards and one TD. He also added 46 yards on four rushing attempts. The red zone monster showed off that he has the skills to go along with his athleticism on this one-handed touchdown grab.
He also showed off his athleticism and elusiveness taking a swing pass over 50 yards while leaving the primary defender completely incapable of stopping the big play.
The performance that Burks put forth put him close-to if not over some very impactful advanced metric thresholds. On the season Burks has 19 catches for 249 yards and two TDs. Based on these performances, Burks has a dominator rating of just over 25%; dominator rating measures a player’s yardage and touchdown production versus the total production of their team. Burks also is very close to topping another threshold that is an indicator of success at the NFL level. Burks’ yards per team pass attempts is 1.9, if he can improve that to over two yards per team pass attempt with his impressive frame and athleticism Burks will quickly become an analytical darling within the 2022 wide receiver class.
The New Top Prospect – Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
Alabama is quickly stealing the title of WRU from Clemson, this year they pumped two first-round receivers into the NFL in Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy. They are likely going to do just the same in 2021 with Devonta Smith and the electric Jaylen Waddle. The electric junior receiver has performed so well that not only am I ready to include him in the top-tier of receivers heading into the 2021 NFL Draft of Ja’Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, and Rashod Bateman. I am moving Waddle all of the ways to the top of this list.
In his first two seasons, while playing with elite talents out wide, Waddle was used sparingly but was incredibly efficient when called upon. In 2019 Waddle had only 33 catches in 13 games; in just four games this season he already has 25 catches. It was a big question mark whether Waddle was efficient because of the other players or if he could in-fact continue his efficient pace while taking on the volume of a true number one receiver. Waddle has the speed to keep up with Ruggs, and he will threaten John Ross’s 40-yard dash record in the 2021 Combine.
Advanced Metrics
In this young season, Waddle has 25 catches for 557 yards and four TDs. This puts Waddle on pace for 81 catches for 1,810 yards and 13 TDs if this was to be a normal 13 game season. Waddle will pair his elite athleticism that he will put on a show at the NFL Combine with incredibly efficient advanced metrics. In these four games played thus far, Waddle has a dominator rating over 34% and over 4.5 yards per team pass attempt.
If we extrapolate Waddle’s current pace over the ten Alabama games scheduled, he will become the second-leading receiver in terms of Alabama’s yardage history among players who declared for the NFL Draft after their junior season behind only Amari Cooper. This is amazing considering the level of target competition that Waddle experienced versus Cooper earlier this decade. Amari Cooper had more than triple the receptions over anyone else on that Alabama roster in his final season.
What to Look For
Next week we get the return of the Big Ten! College Football will almost be back to full force. Rondale Moore and Rashod Bateman will have the opportunity to make their cases as the top receiver as they have both opted back in for the season. We will also see the debut of Justin Fields and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fields will be the major competition to Trevor Lawrence for both the Heisman race as well as the first pick in next year’s NFL Draft.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
