Rookie Stock Market: Week 12

Your boy is back once again with the 12th week straight of the Rookie Stock Market. I’ve enjoyed digging into the details and giving my weekly spin on them. In most formats, Week 13 is the last regular-season matchup and a pivotal week for lots of teams. Let’s dive into some of Week 12 performances.

Risers

Cam Akers – RB Rams

Week 12 Snap Shot

In back-to-back weeks, the rookie Akers has found the end zone. And in back-to-back weeks, Cam Akers has been the top-scoring Rams RB. This is even more impressive considering Akers has had the least amount of snaps in that backfield in that time frame. Despite the lack of snaps, Akers has been relevant due to his efficiency. He leads both Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown in nearly all the advanced metrics via playerprofiler.com. I have showcased a few of these below:

The hope for Akers owners is that Sean McVay starts to use him as more than a complementary piece after seeing how well he has played recently. Akers has been last in snaps the last three weeks. His usage can only go up from here. Of the Rams’ RBs, Akers has the highest draft capital of the bunch: second round compared to Henderson’s third-round selection and Brown as an undrafted free agent. This nudges McVay and the front office to use Akers in fear of wasting high draft capital on a running back who has only seen 33% of the snaps just once this year. Akers’ value is on the rise thanks to his TDs the past two weeks, but his value could rise even more if he can eat into more of Henderson’s or Brown’s workload. 

Antonio Gibson – RB Washington Football Team

Week 12 Snap Shot

Call it a Thanksgiving miracle or simply a talented RB taking advantage of a season-high in snap share, carries, and targets. Gibson and his owners should thank the NFL for giving the Redskins the spotlight and shining a light on Gibson’s performance. Gibson stole the show with most of American’s eyes on the television. Pairing the incredible performance with national publicity, Gibson’s value and hype have skyrocketed. I believe his spike in value is well warranted, as his production is backed up by strong advanced metrics via playerprofiler.com.

Antonio Gibson is top 10 in Breakaway Runs (#6), Yards Created (#8), and Evaded Tackles (#10). If Gibson continues to see around two-thirds of the offensive snaps and stays involved as a pass-catcher, the sky is the limit for the rookie out of Memphis.

Fallers

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB Chiefs

Week 12 Snap Shot

In Week 12 against the Buccaneers, CEH lead the team in rushing and handled over 50% of the attempts, but it was only a 4.9 PPR point performance for the first-round selection out of LSU. The issue is the Chiefs have become very pass-heavy recently. Over the past three weeks, the Chiefs have passed the ball on 71.4% of their plays, second-most in the league. This limits the Chiefs’ RBs upside on the ground, but what about as pass catchers? 

Despite the overall passing volume, Edwards-Helaire has only seen eight targets the past three weeks, only a 5% target share. Coming out of college, one of Clyde’s strengths was his ability as a pass-catcher, so when he landed on the pass-heavy Chiefs, expectations were high for him as a receiver. Unfortunately, the Chiefs just aren’t scheming targets to CEH recently. The end of the fantasy season could be brutal to Edwards-Helaire owners if the pass-heavy approach continues but the targets don’t go CEH’s way. Owners of Edwards-Helaire should not panic and sell at this time. Clyde’s value is probably at an all-time low, and selling low on a player that once had great value is a losing formula in dynasty. Just be patient and wait for the tides to change in Kansas City.

Jalen Reagor – WR Eagles

Week 12 Snap Shot

I hope my keyboard does not short out on me. As I write this, it is raining on my face (only half kidding). This is tough for me to write, especially considering I publicly predicted Jalen Reagor would be a “Riser” before the game. 

My process felt right though. In the previous two weeks, Reagor had seen 88% and 93% of the snaps and was the Eagles’ most productive WR. In addition to his encouraging usage and production, the Eagles were facing the league’s worst passing defense in the Seahawks. However, what I did not see coming was Carson Wentz ruining the perfect opportunity for a big game for the Eagles’ offense. Despite throwing the ball 45 times, the passing total was only 215 yards. *Vomits*. 

Reagor was second on the team in targets but he and Wentz struggled to connect with just a 42.9% catch rate. This has been a big-time down year for Carson Wentz, with a career-high in INTs (15) and a career-low thus far in completion % with 58.1. Until Wentz turns it around or the Eagles make a change, *Cough Jalen Hurts Cough*, it will be hard to count on Reagor as a consistent producer on your fantasy teams. Due to the big letdown against the Seahawks and an all-around disappointing rookie season (mainly due to injury), Reagor’s value is sinking. 

Buy

Darnell Mooney – WR Bears

Week 12 Snap Shot

A few weeks back, after Week 7 I was calling Mooney a buy and he followed it up with a big game in Week 8 (69 yards and a TD). However, since then he has been a bit of a disappointment, especially the past two games with a combined five receptions. Things are not all bad for Darnell Mooney though. In the past three weeks, he has still seen 22 targets and he is seeing many of those targets downfield as he leads the team in Average Depth of Target with 14.4 (if you exclude Ted Ginn’s six targets). The lack of big-time production is not on Mooney though; it’s the lack of deep-ball accuracy from his QBs. According to playerprofiler.com Mooney is #5 in the league in “Unrealized Air Yards”. 

Darnell Mooney has a less than ideal 55.4% catch rate, but again this is not on him as he only has one drop on the season. Mooney has been plagued by the poor QB play of both Foles and Trubisky, but dynasty is not a short-term game and he is not tied to those QBs long term. Mitchell Trubisky is only signed through the 2020 season, and the Bears have an out in Nick Foles’ contract after the 2021 season. I fully expect the Bears to use a first- or second-round pick in the 2021 draft on a QB. This could mean any of the following QBs passing the ball to Darnell Mooney in the near future: Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Kyle Trask, Mac Jones, and maybe even Trevor Lawerence or Justin Fields in a trade-up situation. 

In addition to a potential QB upgrade for Mooney in 2021 is the possible departure of Allen Robinson. Mr. Robinson is a free agent after the season and I find it very hard to believe he signs back with the Bears. This could open up a lot of targets for Mooney in 2021. Robinson already has 108 so far this season and had 154 in 2019. It appears the situation can only get better for Darnell Mooney moving forward. He is a buy due to this lack of efficiency and production as of late, but his 2021 outlook looks more promising. I would feel comfortable offering a late 2021 second-round pick or comparable value for Darnell Mooney. 

Sell

James Robinson – RB Jaguars

Week 12 Snap Shot

I have been beating this drum all season long, and even though Robinson continues to produce he is a sell if your situation is right. If you are competing, I would hold Robinson through the fantasy season but look to sell him off shortly after the conclusion. If you are not competing, sell James Robinson NOW and for a pretty penny to a team looking to make that championship push. This is all just talk so let me back it up for you. 

Undrafted RBs Rarely Produce on This Level

Yep, one of three EVER to accomplish this. I don’t even know who Rhodes is, and we all saw how quickly Lindsay fell from stardom. 

The Uncertainty of His Future Role

James Robinson has been given a massive workload with 194 carries, fourth-most in the league. This is impressive, but when you consider the only other RBs on the roster worth mentioning are both satellite backs in Chris Thompson and Dare Ogunbowale, it is no longer Robinson was asked to shoulder the load as a rusher. I find it hard to believe the Jaguars won’t bring in another RB in 2021

The 2021 Draft

As I alluded to above, I believe the Jaguars will bring in another RB and this upcoming draft is a great opportunity for that. Day 2 is the place to take a talented RB, and I believe this draft class is pretty deep at the RB position. With two second-round picks and one third-round pick, the Jaguars will likely have their shot at plenty of RBs. Some RBs that come to mind in that range are C.J. Verdell, Javonte Williams, Jermar Jefferson, and Jaret Patterson. These are all talents that could certainly eat into James Robinson’s workload in 2021. Even a selection of a RB in the later rounds could cause panic and doubt for Robinson in 2021. To sum this up, I would be looking to sell James Robinson while the getting is still good. The offseason could be detrimental to the value of Robinson, so sell him before his value even has a chance to fall.

Thanks for tuning in once again to another edition of the “Rookie Stock Market”. I plan to have another for you next week! You can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper for more content.