“Athlete” Lynn Bowden Jr. was not a player I was very familiar with until the Belk Bowl Brawl. If you are not aware, Bowden Jr. was involved in a pre-game scuffle before the Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech game.
It was the drama that got my attention, but it was his play on the field that intrigued me.
The 6’1 199 pound Junior played three years at Kentucky before declaring for the draft in December. He truly earned his title of “Athlete” during his time in college, taking snaps at QB, RB, and WR in each year. As a Freshman and Sophomore, he played WR primarily, but as a Junior, he was used primarily as a QB. Some may wonder what position Bowden will play at the next level, but I believe, after diving into his body of work and film, he will be a WR in the NFL, specifically a slot receiver.
I took a look at Lynn Bowden Jr. from both an analytical and film standpoint and came away impressed. I will break down the numbers and tape below and also give you a couple of player comparisons and the overall outlook for you to think about.
Analytics and Stats
When taking a look at the raw numbers of Bowden Jr.’s sophomore campaign, most would not be impressed. 67 receptions for 745 yards and six touchdowns isn’t great until you know the context. In 2018 Kentucky only passed for 2,099 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving Bowden an outstanding market share. This production was good for second-best among all Sophomore WRs.
That market share is on par with the best college seasons of DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. Pair Bowden’s market share with a Sophmore year breakout, and you’re looking at a very good analytical profile.
Film Breakdown
Lynn Bowden Jr. is a raw receiver with lots of functional athleticism. He is not a great route runner, and he is not going to win you every contested catch. However, this can be expected for a player that has not played receiver exclusively throughout both his high school and college football career. Despite not being a refined route runner or a complete bully at the catch point, Lynn Bowden Jr. was able to produce at the college level because he is a player capable of winning with pure and natural athleticism. Bowden can create in space as well as anyone in the class and shows glimpses of route running and ball skills that make Lynn Bowden Jr. a very exciting prospect.
Working in space
In the play below, you can see what Kentucky often did in 2018, which is to get the ball out quickly to Bowden and let him work his magic. With a little shake and stiff arm, Lynn can evade the tackle and pick up about 15 yards on the screen pass.
Here is another screen pass below, this time from the slot. Bowden simply uses his speed and quickness to get down the sideline and pick up a sizable gain.
Again, another screen pass and another big gain. This time he uses some power to run through several Louisville defenders.
Here Kentucky finds a way to get Bowden am easy touch and house call. Too quick, too fast.
These next two punt returns simply show how elusive and dynamic Bowden Jr. can be with the ball in his hands.
Bowden is special with the ball in his hands, and RAC is his calling card. However, to be a consistent producer in the NFL, he will need to be more than just a good athlete.
Route Running
Just a quick slant here. But as mentioned previously, Bowden’s athleticism allows him to produce without much refinement in his game. I would like to see Bowden use some more nuanced footwork to set-up the DB to make him think it is an outbreaking route. This is something that will hopefully come with more time spent playing receiver on a full-time basis.
Another in-breaking route below by Bowden. He approaches the defender at about ½ speed and then explodes inside to create some separation. I like that he uses some speed variation, but I would also like to see him throw a quick jab step to the outside before exploding inside.
Below is the best route I have seen by Bowden Jr. Although there is not a clear view of the footwork, he can get the DB turned to the outside, allowing him to get open inside. This is particularly impressive considering the DB is lined up with inside leverage.
Lynn Bowden Jr. shows potential as a route running but is still very raw at this point. Bowden Jr. can get open on in-breaking routes, but out breaking routes often seem labored and not as smooth in comparison. There is room for improvement when it comes to route running.
Deep Threat
I wish there were airyards data for college football so I could know this for sure, but it seems that Bowden was not targeted downfield nearly as often as he was near the line of scrimmage. This is not saying Bowden is not capable of being a deep threat, as I have a couple of clips below of him going long.
Below is what many would call a “Deep Over,” where Lynn, from the slot, runs both across the field and behind the defense for a long score.
Here against Missouri, Bowden Jr. uses some deception and nice footwork to get open on a post. Once he is inside of the DB, he has enough speed to beat the CB to the football.
Ball Skills
Like route running, this is an area that needs improvement, but he can definitely get better at with some hard work. Similar to hiss route running, he shows flashes.
Below you can see Bowden Jr. run a fade from the slot and makes a contested-catch look relatively routine.
Against Missouri, Lynn runs a quick out and then leaps to make an adjustment on the poorly placed pass. Despite being hit in mid-air while simultaneously making the catch, he holds on the ball, spins off the tackler and gets upfield.
Despite showing the potential to make the tough catch, catching the ball consistently is something, Bowden Jr. needs to work on. As you can see below, he had one of the highest drop-rates in the SEC.
This can be fixable, though. Lynn has yet to truly focus on playing just receiver, and some extra time on the jugs machine would be good for him.
Player Comparisons
I believe many people will compare Bowden Jr. to “gadget” players like Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson, who have had limited success in the NFL. Still, I think Lynn Bowden Jr. will have more consistent production in the league, serving primarily as a slot receiver, but also as an “offensive weapon” capable of lining up anywhere on the field to create mismatches and execute trick plays. What differentiates Bowden from Austin and Patterson is his analytical profile. Patterson never truly “broke-out” and Austin’s college market share was comparable to Bowden’s sophomore season.
When thinking of my own player comparison, Jalen Hurd first popped into my head. Hurd was a multi-positional player in college (a player I still believe in), but he was more polished as a route runner coming out of Baylor last year. Bowden also has a better analytical profile than Hurd, and there is obviously a big size difference between the two.
What I ultimately came to as my player comparison turns out to be another Kentucky player and a Kentucky player that never really had a set position either in Randall Cobb. Randall Cobb, like Lynn Bowden Jr, was Swiss Army Knife, running, receiving, and passing the ball throughout his time at Kentucky. Their style of play is eerily similar, as you can see in the highlight video posted below.
Another player that comes to mind is Percy Harvin, a multiple position, RAC monster, college player with a young breakout age. Below are some of his college highlights for comparison.
Dynasty Outlook
I believe the NFL will see Bowden Jr. in a similar light to both Cobb and Hurd. A great athlete and weapon that needs some molding. Cobb was taken in the 2nd round, with pick 64, and Hurd was selected in the 3rd round, with pick 67. I do not see why Bowden wouldn’t be selected in the 2nd or 3rd round of the 2020 draft, especially considering this analytical profile is superior to both Cobb and Hurd.
If Bowden Jr. is selected in the 2nd or 3rd round of the NFL Draft, that will likely make him a late 2nd, or early 3rd round pick in dynasty rookie drafts. I believe that is great value for him considering his upside to be an elite RAC monster in the slot. Lynn Bowden Jr. does not come without risk, as you have to project up quite a bit with route running and ball skills improving quickly to make a year one impact.
However, when you get into the late 2nd round and later of a dynasty rookie draft, the safe picks are usually gone, so going upside later on is the way to go. With the NFL Draft still to come, it is hard to give Bowden a concrete ranking, but if he is selected in the 2nd or 3rd round, into a good situation, it will be hard for me to keep him out of my top 10 WRs.
Thank you for reading my article! For more dynasty content, you can follow me on Twitter @RookieWhisper.
