In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
There was a very disappointing injury this week to Alabama superstar receiver Jaylen Waddle. On the opening kickoff, Waddle was tackled from behind by a Tennessee linebacker and his right foot got pinned between the defender and the turf. Waddle experienced a high-ankle sprain as well as a fracture, head coach Nick Saban almost instantly announced Waddle’s injury was season-ending in an interview heading into halftime. Waddle ends the season with the SEC’s fourth-best dominator rating at 34% and a league-best 4.49 yards per team pass attempt. Waddle’s availability for the NFL Combine in four months is in question and he could be out for as long as ten months. All of us at DFF and the entire devy community are hopeful for a speedy recovery for Waddle and are looking forward to this young man’s very bright future.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK HEAT CHECK
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. Wells has since led the Marshall Thundering Herd to an undefeated 5-0 record. In some games they were able to overpower opponents in the rushing game, however, when called upon Wells has succeeded. Wells currently is passing accurately with a 64% completion rate for 1,110 yards and eight TDs. Wells has not been as much of a dual-threat despite his reported 4.51-second 40-yard dash time, accounting for only 87 yards rushing on 22 attempts. As a reminder for college football, sack yardage is included in total rushing yardage, and Wells has performed better on designed rushing plays that the 4-yard per attempt indicates.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
After a blazing start to his career, Rattler’s inexperience has been a sticking point. After two losses that could be attributed to Rattler’s late-game decision making, the redshirt freshman turned it around and his play has gotten him back in the Heisman conversation. Through five games Rattler is passing at a surgical 69% completion rate, averaging over 300 yards and 3 TDs per game. Rattler’s play has validated his potential to be the first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, and watching him live his arm-talent is Mahomesian.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. Since that he has looked just as good, if not better as a college prospect compared to Kamara. Gibbs is now coming off back-to-back tough games against Clemson and BC, however, you wouldn’t be able to tell from his statistical resume. Gibbs is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has shown that he is more than capable in the passing game at all levels in the defense. Gibbs has 514 yards from scrimmage and five TDs on the season.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations. Also, Kansas State’s true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn has been one of the best pass-catchers in college football this season.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
As we noted earlier Jaylen Waddle is done for the season, which leaves Metchie and Smith as Alabama’s top two receivers. Metchie was there to answer the call and showed that even when faced with a double team he would be converting big plays for the Crimson Tide. Metchie led Alabama with seven catches for 151 yards against Tennessee.
Metchie now has 21 catches for 499 yards and three touchdowns on the season. Not only will we see Metchie see an increased usage for the rest of the season, but we will also see him face tougher individual matchups. It will be a great litmus test for how Metchie stacks up against the rest of the 2022 receiving class.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back followed up his breakout game by surpassing 100 yards on the ground for the third consecutive week along with finding the end zone for the second and third times in his young career. Bigsby continues to power through SEC defenses, which is now giving him a slight lead over Jahmyr Gibbs for the 2023 running back outlook. Bigsby is averaging 20 carries for 128 yards and a touchdown over his last three games.
Week 6 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The 6’3” and 232 lbs. sophomore receiver had a week to recover as Arkansas had a bye week following his 11 catch breakout game. Arkansas will be back this weekend against Texas A&M. Burks will attempt to will the Razorbacks to their first victory against the Aggies since 2011, but he will need the help of his defense slowing down Isaiah Spiller and the Aggies SEC second-best rushing attack.
This week the Big Ten returned to action and we were awed by the performance of Justin Fields as his Ohio State Buckeyes dominated Nebraska 52-17 in a nearly perfect performance. Despite Fields completing over 95% of his passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns and adding 54 yards and a score on the ground, he was actually outplayed by a conference rival. In the year that was dominated by COVID-19, it is unfortunately only suitable to have a devy breakout player of the week who is now dealing with COVID-19. We also have the elevation of two mini breakouts from our week 3 article to full-blown breakouts this week!
THE BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK – GRAHAM MERTZ, QB, WISCONSIN
THE PROSPECT
Graham Mertz is a redshirt freshman quarterback for the Wisconsin Badgers. Standing at 6’3” and 205 lbs. Mertz was a four-star prospect out of Mission, Kansas, and was the top football recruit from Kansas in the 2019 recruitment class. He was the third-overall pro-style quarterback prospect and the fifth-overall rated quarterback. Mertz was a highly desirable recruit as he received offers from powerhouse schools including Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, Texas A&M, Oregon, Notre Dame, Clemson, and finally Wisconsin where he ultimately committed to. Mertz is the type of prospect that checks every box and could get some NFL GMs excited to add an extremely accurate game manager type quarterback to their roster.
THE ANALYSIS
In his debut start, Mertz threw the ball 21 times, and per PFF 100% of his passes were deemed catchable. Mertz had the best game from a Wisconsin quarterback since 2003, and that includes the great Russell Wilson 2011 season. Mertz roasted the Illinois defense completing over 95% of his passes for 248 yards and five TDs. He outplayed Justin Fields on a nearly perfect game for Fields and if he sustains this level of success, he will be a first-round quarterback if and when he decides to go pro.
| Player | Completions | Attempts | Comp % | Yards | Yards Per Attempt | TD | Int | Rating |
| Justin Fields | 20 | 21 | 95.2% | 278 | 13.2 | 2 | 0 | 237.1 |
| Graham Mertz | 20 | 21 | 95.2% | 248 | 11.8 | 5 | 0 | 273 |
With that being said, Illinois has not been a powerhouse school over the last decade and we cannot take away this performance and project it against pro-caliber talents. In the past eight years, Illinois has only had four players drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. We will have a keen eye for when Mertz faces a higher level of competition from other Big Ten rivals.
MINI BREAKOUT UPDATE
In Week 3 we didn’t have a true breakout player, so we identified a few players who had shown indications of a breakout, but either due to a lack of competition level, or an inconsistent past production profile we did not register these players as legitimate breakouts. Two of the mini breakouts have sustained their production and can be included in our 2020 devy breakouts.
BREAKOUT ALERT – Marvin Mims
After his second college football game, Marvin Mims looked explosive but had only eight career catches for just over 100 yards. However, after five games, he has emerged as Spencer Rattler’s featured receiver with a knack for converting deep slash plays. At this point, Mims is leading the Sooners in every major receiving category. His 19 catches for 328 yards and six TDs have distanced him from the rest of the receiving core. Marvin Mims has the sixth-best dominator rating in the Big 12 at 28%. His yards per team pass attempt is 1.8, which is expected to be lower in a spread style offense. Marvin Mims is a young prospect who is going to be flying off devy draft boards before you may be ready to take him.
BREAKOUT ALERT – Deuce Vaughn
Kansas State’s 5’5” true freshman running back has impressed over his first couple of games, as we mentioned his breakout performance against Oklahoma, and he has maintained his impressive pace. Vaughn has earned at least 15 touches in every game since he took down the Sooners. Vaughn is currently third in the Big 12 in scrimmage yards among running backs. Among other power five running backs with multiple games played only Breece Hall is taking up a larger share of their teams’ total offensive yardage than Vaughn’s 36.7%. What is incredible is that he’s doing most of the work after the catch, and in week 8 he led Power Five running backs again with 79 yards after the catch. On the season he is averaging over 20 yards after the catch.
Deuce Vaughn is clearly very hard to take down in the open field, and with his explosiveness, he likely will be breaking tackles on Sundays.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Next week will be the final week before all Power Five programs are back in action. We are still dealing with small sample sizes in the Big Ten, but we have enough information in the ACC, Big 12, and SEC to come away with meaningful insights. We will continue to keep an eye out for the Big Ten breakouts along with the top-tier players that were not active for the Big Ten kickoff weekend such as Rondale Moore. The matchup to watch next week if you are forced into just one game is the heavy-weight matchup between Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Penn State. This game will be on ABC and starting at 7:30 PM on Halloween night.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
