In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While the generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
This has been a vastly different type of season due to COVID-19 as it has forced most teams into conference-only scheduling and each conference starting at a different point. Some conferences decided to cancel their seasons, these conferences then scrambled back into Fall action after seeing the success of college football elsewhere. Each week we have highlighted a breakout player of the week, and we finally have a large enough sample size to track our previous breakout players’ success.
This week was another lackluster week in terms of young players making a name for themselves and climbing up devy draft boards for this off-season. However, a quarterback from the Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields recruiting class of 2018 is bursting on the scene in Eugene, potentially playing his way into a first-round pick. Initially, this draft class was viewed as top-heavy with Lawrence and Fields, some include Lance in that conversation, however, this is emerging as one of the deepest quarterback classes in recent history.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK – TYLER SHOUGH, QB, OREGON
THE PROSPECT
Tyler Shough came out of high school ranked as the seventh pro-style quarterback in the 2018 class, and the 15th quarterback overall. Shough came in standing at 6’4” and 187 lbs. but behind NFL’s biggest breakout quarterback Justin Herbert for two years, Shough has bulked up to 221 lbs. The four-star quarterback is the next in line of the great Oregon quarterbacks.
THE ANALYSIS
Oregon was supposed to dominate UCLA this week, as dictated by their -17.5 point spread. However, the Bruins game the Ducks a run for their money, cutting it to a three-point game with four minutes remaining in the game. Shough showed some poise and got the Ducks a much needed first down that would ultimately end the game. In this game, Shough completed 19 of his 30 attempts for 334 yards and three TDs. Building on an impressive start to his career in Oregon, in his first three starts Shough has completed 66% of his passes for 873 yards and eight TDs. While Shough is not a common name in the devy community, expect him to build momentum and gain considerable value from now until he declares for the NFL Draft.
THE RETURN OF RONDALE
Rondale Moore returned to action after his prolonged injury absence and temporary opt-out of the 2020 season. Moore is a major indicator of why identifying breakouts early is crucial in devy. It was a great game with four very talented receivers, Purdue’s return of Moore playing alongside one of college football’s emerging stars in David Moore, against Minnesota’s alpha receiver Rashod Bateman and very capable slot man Chris Autman Bell. The four combined for 428 scrimmage yards and three TDs. Rondale Moore was peppered with 20 targets and showed he is still one of the most elusive playmakers in college football history. It was a great Friday game, and a reminder of how important catching breakouts early and acting on them is.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE WEEK HEAT CHECK
Week 0 – Grant Wells, QB, Marshall
Our hands were a bit tied this week, with only nine games on the slate. However, the 6’2” redshirt freshman quarterback Grant Wells played amazingly in his 2020 debut. Wells has since led the Thundering Herd to a 7-0 record in the quinquagenarian season from their tragic plane crash. Completing just over 65% of his passes in these six games, Wells also has thrown for 1,674 yards and 16 TDs versus only four interceptions. As we reported after his first game, Wells has decent speed having run a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, with that speed Wells has been able to add 155 yards and two TDs on the ground. Wells’ 1,674 passing yards as well as his 162.2 passer rating are second-best in the CUSA. Wells also leads the CUSA in completion percentage as well as passing TDs. Wells is not going to be drafted in the deepest of devy leagues, but a strong finish to this season as well as continued success next year could get his name some traction among NFL scouts.
Week 1 – Spencer Rattler, QB, Oklahoma
Rattler’s first season as the Oklahoma starting quarterback has been a rollercoaster of a ride. Rattler had one of his best games of the season in the Bedlam Series this week against rival Oklahoma State. Rattler completed over 70% of his passes surpassing the 300-yard mark with four TDs passing to go with another score on the ground. Rattler’s performance this season is showing that he belongs in the QB1 discussion within the 2022 eligible class with Howell and Slovis. Rattler has 2,319 yards passing to go with 22 TDs versus six interceptions. Here is how the three promising quarterbacks stack up on the season.
Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Georgia Tech
Jahmyr Gibbs broke out in his first active game for Georgia Tech, after which I compared his skill set to Alvin Kamara. At that point in the early season, I was ready to proclaim Gibbs as the top running back in the 2023 class, however, due to the amazing talent throughout the class, it’s going to be a rotating door until we get closer to the 2023 NFL Draft. Gibbs has continued to produce on the ground as well as an effective receiver. On the ground, Gibbs has 389 yards and two touchdowns to go along with 20 catches for 255 yards and three TDs through the air. Jahmyr Gibbs has now accounted for 23% of Georgia Tech’s total yards from scrimmage.
Week 3 – I highlighted a number of mini breakouts
We will keep an eye out going forward. The most notable of which is Oklahoma’s receiver Marvin Mims who has continued to be counted on as one of Rattler’s main targets in clutch situations. Also, Kansas State’s true freshman running back Deuce Vaughn has been one of the best pass-catchers in college football this season.
Week 4 – John Metchie III, WR, Alabama
The Alabama Crimson Tide had the week off to prepare for a matchup with LSU next weekend. Metchie has the eleventh most receiving yards among Power Five receivers with 517. Metchie provides a deep-threat for Mac Jones while Devonta Smith predominantly works the intermediate routes. Metchie has not been used heavily, however, the Crimson Tide has not faced an opponent that gave them any trouble at all in almost two months. On the season, Metchie has 25 catches for 535 yards and four TDs. His advanced metrics have been falling while Devonta Smith continues to dominate defenders, Metchie has a dominator rating of 20% and a yards per team pass attempt of 2.44.
Week 5 – Cartavious “Tank” Bigsby, RB, Auburn
Auburn’s 18-year old true freshman running back has emerged as the 2023 RB1 since Week 5 and has maintained that position however it’s an unbelievable deep and talented class. Bigsby’s hard running style and his refusal to be tackled by a single defender have led to 503 rushing yards and five TDs. He has also proved that he’s a capable receiver out of the backfield with 11 catches for 84 yards. Coming off Auburn’s bye week Bigsby will have two games before taking on the daunted Alabama defense. Bigsby has now made up 24% of Auburn’s total yards from scrimmage. Bigby left Auburns’ game against Tennessee this week with an apparent left hip injury after just his second carry. Bigsby’s status for their Iron Bowl matchup against Alabama is in question but his position atop the 2023 eligible running back class remains clear.
Week 6 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The 6’3” and 232 lbs. sophomore receiver is having an incredibly impressive season. Burks had another strong performance in a losing effort to the reigning National Champion LSU Tigers with nearly 100 yards on five catches, finding the end zone once. Burks has now compiled 598 yards and six TDs in his seven games this season. While the counting stats are not indicative of a dominant season, within the context of the Arkansas offensive attack, Burks is having a very efficient season. Burks has a dominator rating of 32% and has a yards per team pass attempt of 2.5.
Week 7 – Graham Mertz, QB, Wisconsin
After Mertz’s breakout performance throwing 21 times for 248 yards and 5 TDs, he had tested positive for COVID-19. Wisconsin came back this week after their multiple-week postponement as Mertz led the Badgers past Michigan, however, the Badgers could not contain Northwestern in a 17-7 loss. On the season, Mertz is completing 65% of his passes for 605 yards and eight TDs compared to three interceptions. After two lackluster performances, Mertz is playing himself out of contention as the top quarterback in his 2022 eligible class.
Week 8 – DJ Uiagalelei QB, Clemson
Uiagalelei faced many of the same issues with fourth-ranked Notre Dame as he did with BC in terms of his defense allowing the opponent to get out to a multiple score lead early on. After leading Clemson back into the game for the second straight week, he fought them to a second overtime before Notre Dame finally came away victorious. Uiagalelei had another efficient week completing over 65% of his passes for 439 yards and two TDs. He also showed his strength with another rushing touchdown. We expect Clemson’s superstar Trevor Lawrence to be back for their next game, however, in his two-game sample size, Uiagalalei has distanced himself as the 2023 QB1 over Bryce Young.
Week 9 – Rakim Jarrett, WR, Maryland
The 6’0” and 205 lbs. five-star wide receiver shocked the college football scouting complex when he chose to play at Maryland as opposed to LSU among 26 other prestigious programs. Jarrett was rated as the fourth-best receiver in his class and the top-overall player from Washington D.C. He reportedly ran a 4.4-second 40-yard dash at The Opening in D.C. Jarrett is a tantalizing combination of speed, quickness and possesses elite-level route running despite his youth. Jarrett became the first true freshman to score two-or-more TDs to go along with over 100 receiving yards since Stefon Diggs. Jarrett had a true breakout game against Penn State on a five-catch game, those catches went for 144 yards and two TDs and Jarrett is emerging as Taulia Tagovialoa’s most dangerous pass catcher. After his great performance in Maryland’s third-game, Jarrett now has a dominator rating of 30% and to go with an impressive 2.37 yards per team pass attempt.
Week 10 –Terion Stewart, RB, Bowling Green
Terion Stewart is a true freshman running back for the Bowling Green Eagles. Stewart stands 5’9” and 216 lbs. and was a three-star prospect from Sandusky, Ohio. Stewart is not a player that we were expecting big things this year from, as he was rated outside the top 2,000 prospects and as the 144th running back prospect overall. Stewart came into the game and was listed as the Eagles’ third running back on the depth chart. In two games, Stewart has found the end zone on 16% of his 24 touches. Stewart has a stat line of 23 carries for 204 yards and four TDs to go along with a three-yard catch.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
We will continue to keep our eyes on these young future NFL stars and identify them as soon as they breakout to keep you ready for your devy drafts as well as making sound trades on an early breakout before the rest of your league catches up.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
