Dynasty

Patrick Mahomes Dynasty Profile

Patrick Mahomes: 2020 Dynasty Profile

The Chiefs selected Mahomes with the 10th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft as the long-term successor to incumbent starter Alex Smith. In 2017, Mahomes sat on the bench for almost the entire season, only playing Week 17 while Smith rested for the playoffs. After the 2017 season, the Chiefs decided to trade Smith to the Redskins, opening the door for Mahomes as the definite 2018 starting quarterback.

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#TomBomb: Miami Dolphins

#TomBomb: Miami Dolphins

So let’s get this breakdown started with a little context. While I am plugging Matt Breida in at #3, here, I am prefacing it with the spoiler that his fellow backfield running-mate is grabbing that coveted #1 spot. Nonetheless, by investing pennies on the dollar for Breida, you could very well be stealing this year’s Austin Ekeler. Yes, I just said that. Do I have your attention, now? Okay, maybe Old Tom got a little bit carried away. However, I’m still going to hold to the belief that Breida offers you some real potential value. 

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Why Veterans Key Champs

Why Veterans Are the Key to Fantasy Championships: A 2020 Edition

In dynasty leagues, there’s always a delicate balance that owners must forge between dynasty value and winning championships. In the end, the goal is to win the most championships possible, as quickly as possible. However, sometimes, dynasty owners need to rebuild and trade away their veterans to return to contending status.

There’s nothing wrong with that approach, as I detailed in an article guiding dynasty owners in determining whether they’re contenders or not. Taking a mild step backward to take a big step forward is a healthy decision and often tough to make. With that said, I want to move away from individual dynasty teams and look more closely at how two specific groups of players have performed over time. It’s time for an in-depth breakdown of what rookies and older veterans do for your roster.

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#TomBomb: Buffalo Bills

For Old Tom, there are not many things more enjoyable than writing about athletes with fun nicknames. Enter, John “Smokey” Brown. Coming off the WR20 (PPR) finish, in his first go-around with the Buffalo Bills, Mr. Brown is poised to continue this level of production, at the very least, in 2020. When I look at the addition of Stefon Diggs, to this ball club, I continue to find myself liking Brown all the more. In my mind, Mr. Diggs is as talented as they come, and the clear-cut WR1 on this roster. For John Brown and his fantasy outlook, this is the best news he could have received. Think of it like this – for all of 2019, John Brown wore a nice set of Fragraim adjustable ankle weights.

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2020 rookie busts part two

2020 Rookie Busts Part Two

The 2020 rookie class was a loaded group that had dynasty owners’ attention for years. I’ve written about the class three separate times: before the NFL Draft, live during the NFL Draft, and about a month ago. I’ve included all the links to those previous series at the bottom of the page. However, in those articles, I focused on the rookies from a redraft perspective and how they will impact redraft rosters in 2020.

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David Montgomery Dynasty Profile

David Montgomery: 2020 Dynasty Profile

David Montgomery is a polarizing player for fantasy owners. By all accounts, from a production standpoint, Montgomery had a relatively successful inaugural season. His 1,074 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs were similar to Le’Veon Bell’s rookie season in which he accounted for 1259 scrimmage yards and 8 TDs. The primary difference was that Bell caught 20 more passes as a rookie. But Monty (71.4%) had a higher catch percentage than Bell (68.2%). Montgomery gathered 889 rushing yards on 242 carries for a 3.7-yard average, while Bell in his rookie season mustered 860 rushing yards on 244 carries for a 3.5-yard average.

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Michael Gallup Dynasty Profile

Michael Gallup: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Michael Gallup’s  dynasty profile is an interesting story. He was drafted out of Colorado State in the 3rd round of the 2018 NFL Draft. A JUCO transfer from Butler Community college, Gallup played his junior and senior seasons at the FBS Division I level. Here he featured as a key piece of his team’s offense, earning a 97th percentile target share and 74th percentile dominator rating. 

Gallup had a fairly underwhelming NFL rookie season, but in his second year of professional football, Gallup broke out for 1,100 yards and six scores for 66 receptions from 113 targets. 

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Rashaad Penny: 2020 Dynasty Profile

I wrote about Penny back in February, but a lot has changed since then. The Seahawks selected Penny out of San Diego State with the 27th overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Coming into the NFL, Seattle expected Penny to fill their starting running back position. Dynasty drafters flocked to Penny, and some spent the 1.02 rookie pick on Penny, behind Saquon Barkley at the 1.01.

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Redraft Best Ball Primer

DFF Dynasty Daredevil

In this article, it’s time to look at the dynasty dynamite canisters. These are the guys that can explode in value or blow up and become nothing. I expect each of these players to do exactly that by the end of 2020. There’s no in-between, as I don’t foresee a mediocre outcome. Most of these players are on their “last chance” for dynasty owners. But, each has the upside to be a top asset.

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Damien Williams Opt-Out: Rapid Reaction

The likely Kansas City Chiefs starting running back, Damien Williams, has opted out for the 2020 NFL seasons due to COVID-19 concerns. He will sit the season out but who can blame him? The NFL players are just like you and me. They need to think of their families and themselves before anything else if that’s what they think is best.  From a fantasy/dynasty football perspective, this feels like the first “opt-out” seriously impacting our little world and deserves some attention.

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Miles Sanders Dynasty Profile

Miles Sanders: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Entering the second year of his rookie contract with one of the top offensive play-callers as his head coach has left me drooling at the idea of what Sanders’ ceiling could be. I see his value continuing to trend in a positive direction over the coming years as he establishes himself as a top 10 asset in all of fantasy football. I have him as the RB6 in my dynasty rankings, which is slightly ahead of his current RB7 ADP.

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2020 rookie busts

2020 Rookie Busts Part One

Now, it’s time to take a different slant on the 2020 rookie class. I want to look at the class from a dynasty perspective, specifically looking at the busts. When we look back in a few years, what players will we regret having selected in our rookie drafts? It’s not too late to move away from these players, so perhaps you might want to consider selling them before their value drops. I’m not necessarily saying that any of these players will completely bust, but I am saying that they won’t live up to their draft cost.

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Kahale Warring: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Warring fits the specifications of a fantasy football “sleeper” candidate like a glove. He has the willingness and competitiveness to handle run-blocking duties, and the talent to line up in the slot. Versatility is valuable in the NFL. If Warring wins the primary TE job for the Texans, he should be capable of staying on the field for the majority of the snaps. Having just turned 23 this offseason, any role Kahale carves out this coming season should be maintained, with the potential for growth into more opportunities, provided he stays healthy. He can be acquired late in drafts or for very minimal assets via trade in most dynasty leagues, and may even be available on waivers in a few.

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Jamison Crowder: 2020 Dynasty Profile

It never ceases to amaze me that the majority of people will continue to buy “brand names” items, regardless of the price. This holds true in nearly all facets of society and even extends to fantasy football. Jamison Crowder is not a brand name item. Crowder played in all 16 games last season, starting 12. He led the Jets in targets (122), catches (78), receiving yards (833), and receiving touchdowns (6). Crowder was also quarterback Sam Darnold’s favorite receiver and served as his reliable safety net time and time again.

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Vegas Receivers Smart Bet

Vegas Receivers: Where’s the Smart Bet?

The Raiders have one of the muddiest receiving groups in the NFL, with a quagmire of options. Based on their dynasty values, I’ll take a look at all the receiving options and give you the smart bet for 2020 and beyond. I already broke down the entire Raiders’ offense for redraft purposes, but I want to take more of a dynasty slant, focusing on the receiving group.

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A.J. Brown Dynasty Profile

A.J. Brown: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Brown is currently being drafted at the 3.06 in dynasty startups, making him the WR14. An interesting check is to compare a player’s dynasty ADP versus their re-draft ADP which can sometimes indicate where dynasty players are overvaluing youth. In redraft leagues, Brown is 4.08 which is the WR17. This indicates that Brown is expected to have a strong 2020 season, paired with only being 23 years old makes him a top tier dynasty asset.

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Carson Wentz: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Carson Wentz has been an excellent real-life quarterback after his rookie year, throwing at least three times as many touchdowns as interceptions each season. In 2017, Wentz had an MVP-type season for the 13 games he played, dominating the NFL and leading the Eagles to an 11-2 record in his starts. Unfortunately, Wentz tore his ACL near the end of 2017, causing him to miss the Eagles’ Super Bowl run.

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Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

Dynasty Story: Kenyan Drake

In a dynasty story, I’ll look at dynasty value and how a player has fluctuated over time, primarily based on news or events. Then, I’ll give a dynasty take on their future value and whether dynasty owners should buy or sell the player going forward. In my first dynasty story, I covered Mike Williams. While Williams has had somewhat of a roller coaster first three NFL seasons, it’s nothing compared to the next player’s journey. It’s time for a deep dive into Kenyan Drake.

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