In Sunday night’s game between the Cowboys and the Rams, Blake Jarwin suffered a season-ending ACL tear. I want to break down the impact from both a dynasty and a redraft perspective. Specifically, let’s look at each affected Cowboys’ player.
Amari Cooper
Let’s get the shortest write-up out of the way. I don’t see Cooper’s role as significantly affected by Jarwin’s injury. Cooper was the WR1 on the Cowboys before and will continue to serve in that capacity moving forward. He had 10 receptions on 14 targets for 81 yards in Week 1, and he played on 94% of offensive snaps. Cooper might gain a few more targets on the season without Jarwin in the lineup, but it’s not enough to adjust his ranking in either dynasty or redraft formats.
Michael Gallup
Like Cooper, I don’t expect much of an effect on Gallup from Jarwin’s injury. Entering the 2020 season, there were minor concerns that rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and Jarwin would siphon targets away from Gallup. In Week 1, Gallup only had five targets, which he converted into three receptions for 50 yards.
However, Gallup played on 96% of offensive snaps, the most of any Cowboys’ receiver, and he had a massive play erased by a controversial offensive pass interference penalty. Now that the Cowboys have a chance to plan without Jarwin in the lineup, I expect them to focus on Gallup more in Week 2 and beyond. I would slightly raise Gallup’s redraft ranking, but this news isn’t enough to move his dynasty value.
CeeDee Lamb
Going into 2020, I was confident that Lamb would remain behind Cooper and Gallup in targets, and he would need to compete with Jarwin for the third option in the offense. Even though Lamb was a first-round pick, he’s a rookie in a shortened offseason, and I thought he would need time to adjust. Lamb played on 82% of offensive snaps in Week 1, while catching five of six targets for 59 yards.
At this point, I expect the Cowboys to run an offense similar to the Rams’ offense with Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods in parts of 2018 and 2019. They will focus on their three excellent wide receivers, including Lamb, and a star running back, mostly ignoring the tight end position. I believe Lamb can now present WR3 value in redraft formats, and I bumped him slightly up in dynasty based on his increased expectations in his rookie year.
Blake Jarwin
Unfortunately, Jarwin will miss the entire 2020 season with his ACL tear. The ACL tear was a clean tear with no additional complications, so he should return in time for the beginning of the 2021 season. The Cowboys recently extended Jarwin to a 4-year, $22 million contract, and they would only save $2.25 million by releasing Jarwin before 2021. Assuming Jarwin doesn’t suffer any setbacks, he should continue to play a role for the Cowboys in 2021.
However, I don’t expect Jarwin to do anything significant at that point. The Cowboys have Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb all under contract for 2021, and they don’t benefit cap-wise from releasing or trading any of them. I think Lamb and Gallup will both take a step forward in 2020, and the Cowboys will have the most dynamic wide receiver trio going into 2021.
Therefore, Jarwin missed his window in dynasty formats. He will only turn 27 years old in July 2021, but he’s never truly broken out in the NFL through four seasons. Jarwin is worth a roster spot, but he’s nothing more than a dynasty flier. I wanted to see what Jarwin could do in 2020, and it’s a shame that we won’t get to see the entire Cowboys’ offense as they intended.
Tony Pollard
Generally, when teams lose a tight end, they often throw a few more targets to their running back. While Ezekiel Elliott already receives some targets, the Cowboys may decide to use Pollard in place of Jarwin in the short passing game. The Cowboys now would benefit from deploying 20 personnel, with Elliott and Pollard on the field simultaneously combined with Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb.
Unfortunately, almost no NFL teams ever use two halfbacks at the same time. I expect the Cowboys to force a tight end onto the field, even if that player is not a receiving threat. Pollard remains a high-end handcuff in redraft leagues with a slightly higher target floor and ceiling. I won’t move Pollard in my dynasty rankings based on Jarwin’s injury.
Cowboys’ Tight End Depth Chart
After Jarwin left the game, the Cowboys replaced him with Dalton Schultz. They gave Schultz four targets, and he caught one of them for 11 yards. However, the Cowboys’ game plan going into Week 1 included a role for Jarwin that they needed to fill on the fly. Schultz has 14 receptions on 23 targets for 133 yards in his career, so he offers little to nothing as a pass-catcher.
The Cowboys also have Blake Bell on their depth chart, who has mostly served as a blocker. Bell has 38 receptions in five previous seasons, so he won’t be a direct replacement for Jarwin, either. Therefore, unless the Cowboys acquire a tight end via free agency or trade, I don’t expect them to use a tight end as a part of their passing offense.
Possible Tight End Replacements
As the season has already begun, there aren’t many tight ends available in free agency. The only significant veteran the Cowboys could sign is Delanie Walker. Walker is 36 years old and failed to sign with any team during the preseason. The Patriots had some interest in Walker, but they decided to move in a different direction. Walker hasn’t been fantasy relevant since 2017, and I think he’s completely washed-up.
More interestingly, the Cowboys could decide to make a big trade for a tight end. Some options include Gerald Everett, O.J. Howard, and David Njoku. Of those options, Everett and Njoku both have current injuries, while Howard played ahead of Rob Gronkowski for the Buccaneers in Week 1. I think Njoku is the most likely trade target, as he already made a trade request, and the Browns don’t have him in their long-term plans.
If any tight end goes to the Cowboys, their dynasty value will immediately increase. However, I would use that value bump as an opportunity to sell. Whoever takes Jarwin’s spot in the offense will compete with Cooper, Gallup, and Lamb for targets, and Jarwin will also return in 2021. I would guess that the Cowboys don’t acquire a tight end via trade, but that’s my advice in the event they do.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
