Intro/Purpose
This will be a super free-form article, where I discuss how exciting it was finally to have football back on Thursday night. Even though the Chiefs-Texans matchup didn’t provide the most exciting football, it felt amazing to see a real-life game. With the COVID-19 pandemic hanging over our heads all summer, I wasn’t sure we’d get to this point. Getting through the first game gives me confidence that we will have a full season.
However, while the game had more emotional significance to me than fantasy significance, it still provided multiple important fantasy storylines that I want to discuss. The Chiefs and Texans have two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. The Chiefs’ offense, in particular, is likely the strongest in the league, containing numerous exciting fantasy options. With that all said, let’s focus on a few critical storylines from each team, starting with the Chiefs and followed by the Texans.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the Real Deal
If there were any doubts that Edwards-Helaire is the Chiefs’ workhorse running back, they went away early in Thursday’s game. Edwards-Helaire received 25 of the Chiefs’ 32 running back carries, a hefty majority of the workload. The Chiefs did prefer to use Darrel Williams on some third downs and to pass block, but Edwards-Helaire is the locked-in bell-cow back. They even gave him goal-line carries, despite his struggles at the goal-line throughout the game. He’s a top-five dynasty value, and there’s no reason to think otherwise.
Darrel Williams is the Chiefs’ Backup Running Back
Throughout the summer, the Chiefs had a void at backup running back after Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season. Eventually, they decided to release DeAndre Washington, leaving Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson to compete for backup duties. Thompson did nothing in Thursday’s game, recording no offensive stats. Feel free to drop Thompson from any redraft rosters and in shallower dynasty leagues.
Therefore, Darrel Williams is the clear backup to Edwards-Helaire. Williams did little with his touches, recording only seven carries for 23 yards and two receptions for seven yards. If Edwards-Helaire were ever to suffer an injury, Williams would be the starter and have at least RB2 weekly value. He’s a must-hold in all redraft and dynasty formats, although I doubt he has standalone value without an injury to Edwards-Helaire.
Sammy Watkins, a Mirage?
As usual, Watkins excelled when few started him in fantasy football. Watkins caught seven of nine targets for 82 yards and a touchdown, leading the Chiefs in receiving on the night. The Chiefs see Watkins as the second receiver behind Tyreek Hill, as Watkins played most of the game ahead of the Chiefs’ other options.
I don’t trust Watkins long-term, but he’s a must-add in any redraft leagues where he’s available. As for dynasty formats, I’d try to use this opportunity to sell Watkins if I had him on my roster. I feel this performance is generally a mirage, and nothing’s changed for my dynasty outlook on Watkins.
Mecole Hardman is a Part-Time Player, at Best
While I don’t believe Watkins has risen from the dead, I’m very concerned about Hardman’s role in the offense. Hardman continued to play on the kick return team and split WR3 snaps with Demarcus Robinson. Robinson had six targets, which he only converted into three receptions for 20 yards.
However, Hardman had only one target all game. He caught a six-yard pass on that target, but I’m not impressed with Hardman’s Week 1 performance. I’m okay dropping Hardman in shallow redraft leagues, although I’d hold him in deeper formats. In dynasty leagues, Hardman is a hold, but I’m worried about his long-term value. I think that dynasty players like Hardman better than the Chiefs do, and he might never be an integral part of their offense.
David Johnson is Alive
Johnson seemed to return to form in his first game with the Texans. He only had 11 carries, but he recorded 77 yards and a touchdown on those touches. Johnson also added three receptions for 32 yards. Teammate Duke Johnson had to exit this game with a leg injury, which could mean added work for David Johnson going forward.
I would use this opportunity to sell David Johnson if you still have him on your roster in dynasty leagues. He’s already 28 years old, and I don’t believe that he’ll hold up long term. However, in redraft leagues, Johnson looks like he could be a borderline RB1, especially if he performs as he did in Week 1.
Fuller’s a Stud
We wondered whether Will Fuller or Brandin Cooks would lead the Texans’ receiving corps for most of the offseason. Fuller dominated in Week 1, soaking up 10 of the Texans’ 31 passing targets. He converted those targets into eight receptions for 112 yards, although he didn’t score a touchdown.
No other Texans’ player had more than three receptions or 39 receiving yards. While Cooks had a quad injury that limited him, I think that Fuller proved he’s Deshaun Watson’s top target if healthy. Therefore, I would prefer Fuller over Cooks in both redraft and dynasty formats going forward. It’s only one game, but the two players were close enough beforehand, so I’m willing to make a quick pivot from Cooks to Fuller.
Cooks and Cobb Disappoint
Outside of Fuller, the entire rest of the Texans’ receiving game was a massive disappointment. Most notably, neither Cooks nor free-agent signing Randall Cobb made any impact in Week 1. Cooks struggled through his quad injury, and he didn’t look like himself.
Apparently, this quad injury has been an issue all summer. Therefore, it might linger throughout the season and continue to flare up from time to time. I’m incredibly concerned for Cooks in redraft formats, but he’s just a hold for now. Cooks is also a dynasty hold because nobody will buy him right now. Hang onto him and hope for a bounce-back.
On the other hand, some thought that Cobb would have a massive role in the slot for the Texans. Cobb only had two receptions for 23 yards on three targets. He rotated with Kenny Stills and DeAndre Carter for snaps behind Fuller and Cooks, and he was left off the field entirely outside of 11 personnel. Feel free to drop Cobb in redraft leagues if you need a spot, although I think he’s still a hold in most dynasty leagues.
Ignore Texans’ Tight Ends
This is purely a dynasty angle, but the Texans’ tight ends continue to present a problem for fantasy owners. The team loves to use the tight end position, even deploying some 12 personnel. However, they rotate in too many players to make any of them fantasy viable.
Both Jordan Akins and Darren Fells caught two passes in this game, but neither was a featured part of the offense. Second-year prospect Kahale Warring didn’t record any offensive stats, although he’ll split time with Akins and Fells even if he works his way into the offense later on. I wouldn’t expect to get anything outside of this tight end room, and I would stop wasting my time on rostering Akins, Fells, or Warring in dynasty leagues.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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