Dynasty

Chasing Ships and Flipping Pieces: Part 1

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Would you ever trade a dollar bill for three quarters? If not, can you at least imagine a scenario where you would? If it wasn’t for charity or goodwill, but an actual self-serving purpose? No? Well, try this one on. Maybe I’m driving my family in the station wagon cross country to Wally World and run into some unplanned misadventures along the way. Maybe I need to make up some time and drive through the night. I’m going to need an ice-cold Coke to keep rolling, so I stop at a rest stop and go to the vending machine. I only have one dollar bill but I also have one quarter. Stay with me, the analogy is only going to get worse from here. 

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2021 Projections: Cincinnati Bengals

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Joe Burrow looked awesome in 2020 when he was on the field. As a rookie, he was very impressive and I cannot wait to see how he grows in 2021. The team is giving him every chance to succeed and I think he will take advantage of these resources to have a great season and career. I have him projected for a very solid 4,700 passing yards and 35 total touchdowns. This results in him averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game, this leaves him easily in the top eight QBs for 2021. With his ADP being about QB12 I am loving him in drafts and find myself stacking him with a Bengals wide receiver very often. 

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2021 Projections: Buffalo Bills

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The Buffalo RB group is interesting. I gave Zack Moss more rushing work than Devin Singletary and gave Singletary more receiving work than Moss. Which matches the trend set when both were active in 2020. Unfortunately, this creates two RBs that I do not want. At first, I found it surprising that Singletary came out with more points than Moss because I thought Moss’s TD upside would trump the receiving upside. However, Singletary uses that receiving upside to achieve four receiving touchdowns. Both of these running backs ended up with seven total touchdowns, but Singletary had 30 more receptions which give him the point advantage. These RBs may not seem desirable, but at their respective ADPs, I could see myself owning some Singletary. He is currently being drafted after Zach Moss, so I would take advantage of this by fading Moss and scooping Singletary late.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC South

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage is all about the AFC South. This is the third division breakdown, and you can find the AFC East here and the NFC East here. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s dive right in. 

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2021 Projections: Kansas City Chiefs

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a player that was hyped to Mars in the last off-season. I had been calling him a post-hype buy candidate all off-season so I was excited to see what my projections would have in store for him. In 2020 CEH had 45% of the team’s carries and that was with him missing three full games. So, in 2021 I have him projected for 50% of the team’s carries. I also gave him a 50% share of the rush TDs and a 10% target share. All of these comes together to make a 1,300 yard and 13 total TD season. One of CEH’s biggest issues last season was finding the endzone, I have him correcting this in a big way and seeing an elite TD floor. He is the main RB in the league’s most consistent offense. He should see a lot of TD opportunities this season.

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2021 Projections: LA Chargers

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In this series, I am diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.

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dfs week 14

Myles Gaskin: 2021 Dynasty Profile

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Myles Gaskin played college football at the University of Washington from 2015-2018. Gaskin put together an impressive college career, rushing for over 1,200 yards and double-digit TDs in each of his four seasons. During the pre-draft process, he measured in at 5’ 9”, 205 lbs, and registered a below-average speed score with his 4.58 40-yard dash. Gaskin was selected by the Miami Dolphins in the seventh round of the 2019 NFL Draft. 

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Elite: The Case for D.J. Moore

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The receiver with two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons in their first three years or the receiver with just one top-24 season? Whichever way you want to portrait it, D.J. Moore has a lot of different interpreters that are struggling to find consensus. The range on Moore’s ADP is one of the most drastic out of all players. But where should we be valuing him? Is his WR16 ADP low enough to find value gains or not quite worth the price?

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2021 Projections: Baltimore Ravens

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In this coming series, I will be diving into each NFL team and putting forth my predictions on what I think they will do in the 2021 season. I think having a set of reasonable or expected projections can help us during our drafts. They can help differentiate between closely ranked players, not only by comparing floor but also by comparing potential upside. I will be showing a set of realistic or expected projections and telling you if I think anyone is being under or overvalued in best ball/redraft drafts right now. These can also be used in a dynasty mindset, especially if you are a contending team. But, even if you are in a rebuild these projections could outline a young, cheap player who may get more work than a lot of people think. Let’s dig in.

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A Saquon Barkley Update: The AP Effect

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Saquon Barkley (RB-NYG), as we all know, tore his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and meniscus in his right knee in Week 2 (September 20th) of the 2020 NFL season. It was a devastating injury for the consensus top-five fantasy player,  an injury that would land him on the IR for the remainder of the season. However, most assumed that he would be back to 100% by the start of the 2021 season and this assumption was reflected in his fourth overall fantasy ranking in half-point PPR. An assumption, that I like to call the Adrian Peterson effect or “The AP Effect” for short. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: NFC East

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Miles Sanders’ stock is dropping, and his fantasy value is in a completely opposite situation than last offseason at this time. The third-year pro put together a somewhat disappointing season in 2020. He played in four fewer games than his rookie year, he hardly outproduced his rushing statistics, and he was simply a non-factor as a receiver out of the backfield. In 2019, he finished as the RB15 in PPR leagues compared to the RB23 in 2020.

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High Ankle Sprains – The Fantasy Football Death Sentence

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I think at this point we are all well aware of how unwanted a high ankle sprain diagnosis is for our fantasy football superstars. No injuries are good injuries when you are competing for fantasy football championships, but high ankle sprains have been a death sentence in recent years. Why? Well to understand why it derailed the fantasy football seasons of Michael Thomas, Raheem Mostert, and Christian McCaffrey in 2020, we need to better understand high ankle sprains.

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Julio Jones Traded to the Tennessee Titans

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Julio Jones will be traded to the Tennessee Titans for future second and fourth-round picks. Jones who was drafted as the sixth overall selection in 2011, spent 10 productive seasons in Atlanta. In that time Jones became one of the most productive wide receivers in NFL history hauling in 848 catches for 12,896 yards and 60 TDs. He will instantly become Tennessee’s WR1 sufficiently boosting the outlook for Ryan Tannehill’s 2021; let’s dive into how it impacts his fellow Titans teammates along with how his departure impacts the viable fantasy options in Atlanta.

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Life’s Too Short NOT To Play Fantasy Football

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For the Heady Mafia and loyal members of the #DFFArmy out there, you can take a break from reading this paraphernalia as it’s not about you. Although, please get ready to forward this to some people in your life. This barely conscious smattering of words on paper…fine, “digital” paper, is for Tom from Accounting, Susan from Human Relations, or my wife 10 years ago. This is for the people who for some strange reason, despite the ease of it, have yet to dip their itsy-bitsy toes into the foray of fantasy football. I am here today, to tell, no, dare say, educate you (ok fine, “brainwash”) why those excuses you keep giving your significant other, family member, or coworker will no longer work in this day and age. So, let’s get down to business and make our way through the bullshit that is your excuse. Bonus, I am even going to give you a type of fantasy football league that would suit you best for this year.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC East

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For the next couple of weeks, we are going to project whose fantasy stock is up and whose fantasy stock is down entering the 2021 season. There will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team. We will be breaking down each division at a time. In this edition, we will analyze the AFC East.

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Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Texans

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While the Texans may look like a terrible franchise that could be without Deshaun Watson this season, there’s still value to be found in their backfield. The Texans signed Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay to one-year contracts adding to David Johnson and a number of backs that have remained irrelevant. The average age of the Texans backfield by the start of next season is 26.8, which is basically geriatric for the NFL.

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Dynasty Sleepers 2021: RB Edition

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The days of the traditional sleeper are quickly fading with a community full of hard-working analysts and tape grinders who nail down even the least known players before most of the NFL scouts can get their eyes on them. Ok, that might be a bit of an exaggeration (It’s not!) but the dynasty market is saturated with content. Therefore, most players will be given some sort of spotlight and as a result, the entire population of dynasty managers is more knowledgeable as a whole making “sleepers” much more difficult to discover and take advantage of.

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Dynasty Lessons Learned: 2021

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There exists a great divide between redraft and dynasty fantasy football. Many factors contribute to the considerable gap between the two, but one aspect unique to dynasty is the constant evolution. The ability to adjust as a dynasty manager is key, whether it is fixing a mistake made in the start-up draft or understanding the applied strategy is outdated or unreliable in today’s dynasty landscape, success hinges on one’s aptitude for self-reflection and change.

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Selling High on Hype

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During this “dead period”, of impact Fantasy Football content, it’s always good to take inventory of your roster and identify “who’s hot” and “who’s not”, from a Dynasty values perspective. The idea lends itself to helping you make strategic moves and improving your starting line-up production while insulating with production potential. The following recommendations are meant to help you find ways to expand your production potential via the off-loading of “hyped” assets, whether proven or unproven. These examples are not to say that these players possess poor value; rather it’s due to the perceived value that might allow you to move them in to strengthen your overall roster.

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