Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Nick Chubb
Chubb is more of a cursory riser. He returned from his MCL injury and looked completely healthy, taking 19 carries for 126 yards and a touchdown. Kareem Hunt also received 19 carries, but I attribute the split to the Browns’ wanting to ease Chubb back into a full workload. Chubb displayed every bit of the talent he’s shown throughout his career, and I’m comfortable returning him to his previous value.
Wayne Gallman
At this point, I can no longer ignore Gallman’s production over the previous four weeks. He’s gone from 10 to 18 carries over that span, increasing his workload every week. Gallman also has five total touchdowns in those four games, as he’s consolidated the backfield ahead of Dion Lewis and Alfred Morris. I’m not saying Gallman is an RB1 for the rest of 2020, but he could provide RB3 value in the short term.
The Giants recently placed Devonta Freeman on injured reserve, so Gallman will continue to start over the next few weeks and could even keep the job when Freeman returns. Perhaps, Gallman can show something for other NFL teams, as he’s an unrestricted free agent after 2020. I don’t expect him to sign a massive contract or anything like that, but maybe he can carve out a committee role. At the very least, Gallman should be on a roster in every dynasty league.
Salvon Ahmed
Ahmed was an undrafted rookie in 2020 who saw no opportunities until Week 9. But, the Dolphins chose to give him carries over the last two games, eventually promoting him to the starting role ahead of Jordan Howard and DeAndre Washington. The Dolphins then felt confident enough in Ahmed to release Howard, even though starter Myles Gaskin can’t return until Week 12.
In Week 10, Ahmed played 76% of the offensive snaps, taking 21 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown. No other running back had more than two carries in the game, making Ahmed a workhorse for the week. I believe Ahmed is now the Dolphins’ temporary starter, while Matt Breida will mix in if he can return from his hamstring injury.
Unlike Gallman, though, I don’t think Ahmed will keep the starting job when Gaskin can play. I believe Gaskin showed enough to retain the starting role, but perhaps Ahmed can see carries as the second back ahead of Breida or Washington. Either way, Ahmed was irrelevant in dynasty leagues before this week, and now he’s a must-own. So, he’s a clear riser for the week.
Kalen Ballage
Ballage is a similar story to both Gallman and Ahmed, although he’s a bit of a mix of the two. Like Gallman, Ballage is a veteran back, who’s had some chances to play in previous years. Ballage played 2018 and 2019 for the Dolphins before landing on the Jets for part of 2020. He showed nothing good in either location, but he played for fantasy kryptonite Adam Gase.
Suddenly, Ballage became the Chargers’ lead back in Week 9 after Justin Jackson suffered a mysterious early-game injury. He immediately saw 15 carries to Joshua Kelley’s nine, and he did far more with his carries than Kelley. Ballage averaged 4.6 YPC, although he contributed nothing in the passing game.
Then, in Week 10, Ballage drew the start ahead of Kelley with Jackson on injured reserve. Ballage stole all the work from Kelley, playing 73% of offensive snaps. The Chargers gave Ballage six targets compared to zero for Kelley and 18 carries to Kelley’s seven.
At this point, we have no idea when Austin Ekeler will return, and Jackson will miss at least two more games. Therefore, Ballage is currently a starting running back with upside. Of course, the Chargers will turn to Ekeler as their starter when he returns, but Ballage could carve out a role behind him as the #2 RB. Neither Jackson nor Kelley has impressed in that job, so Ballage has a chance to succeed. Like Ahmed, Ballage was on most waiver wires before this week, and he should be on zero now, making him a significant riser.
Fallers
Darrell Henderson
The Rams decided to employ a backfield committee in Week 10, splitting carries among Cam Akers, Malcolm Brown, and Henderson. Brown played the most snaps, but Akers saw the most carries. Henderson did have a role, although he was more of a change-of-pace back.
Don’t hear what I’m not saying here. I don’t think Akers or Brown are risers based on this game. But, before this week, I thought Henderson had been the most talented back in this backfield, and he had a chance to consolidate control as the long-term starter. Now, I think it’s clear that the Rams want to use at least two, if not three, running backs as part of their base offense.
I think that the Rams will eventually let Brown walk in free agency, or they will at least form more of a two-headed committee between Akers and Henderson. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen enough from Henderson to say that his talent will win out, and Akers has superior draft capital. I prefer to avoid investing in this backfield, although I guess I’d prefer Akers to Henderson based on the draft capital.
Marquise Brown
Honestly, I’m 100% sick and tired of Brown’s antics and performances this season. Before the Ravens’ Week 7 bye, Brown had caught 26 of 42 targets for 376 yards and a touchdown in six games. He averaged 4.3 receptions and 62.7 yards/game, pacing for 68.8 receptions and 1003 yards over a full season. I’m not saying that those are excellent numbers, but it would have represented a nice progression in his second NFL season.
However, everything has gone wrong since then. Brown put up a complete dud game in Week 8 against the Steelers, catching one of two targets for three yards and a touchdown. After that game, Brown criticized the Ravens’ offensive game plan, saying that he needed to be more involved in the offense.
After those complaints, Brown has totaled a miserable five receptions on 11 targets for 52 yards in the Ravens’ last two games. I’ve seen nothing from Brown this season to show me that he’s becoming a better NFL receiver, outside of staying healthy this year compared to 2019. Lamar Jackson has regressed as a passer, but I can’t solely blame Jackson for Brown’s troubles.
I would simply like to warn dynasty owners that Brown may never become a viable fantasy asset. Do you want to start Mecole Hardman in your lineup? I didn’t think so, and Brown plays for Jackson, not Patrick Mahomes. I’ll hold out some hope for Brown based on his first-round draft capital, but he’s my 84th ranked asset and WR44. I want nothing to do with Brown in any of my leagues, and I’ll allow other owners to wait for a rebound that may never come.
Chase Edmonds
Well, if anybody needed convincing that Edmonds is not the Cardinals’ long-term solution at running back, you got it here. In Week 9, Edmonds played as the Cardinals’ sole back, taking 25 carries for 70 yards and catching all three of his targets for 18 yards. He took 96% of the snaps, essentially relegating all other backs to scraps as Kenyan Drake missed the game.
However, in Week 10, Drake magically returned from his ankle injury, and he immediately returned to his lead role. Drake started the game, played more snaps, and had 16 carries compared to eight for Edmonds. Edmonds actually succeeded on limited touches, with 56 yards on his eight carries.
We saw that Edmonds is excellent as a backup and in a change-of-pace role, but he cannot play effectively as a workhorse back. The Cardinals likely won’t sign Drake long-term, and Edmonds will be a backup to a new free-agent signing or high draft pick in 2021. Continue to treat Edmonds as a high-value backup with handcuff upside, but he’s nothing more.
N’Keal Harry
Apparently, Harry was active for the Patriots’ Week 10 contest against the Ravens, playing 60% of the offensive snaps. I must have missed Harry’s participation in the game, though, as he had no targets, and he contributed nothing whatsoever to the offense. Jakobi Meyers had five receptions on seven targets, far outperforming Harry.
At this point, I’m not sure that I would even prefer Harry to Meyers in dynasty leagues, let alone considering him any sort of real asset. Harry is a complete and utter bust, and he might be one of the biggest wide receiver busts in the recent few draft classes. If anybody somehow gives you any second-round pick for Harry, I’ll take it and move on. If my “Dead to Me” series comes back anytime soon, you’ll see Harry featured in the first edition.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
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