One of the most polarizing prospects in the 2023 draft class is Ole Miss running back Zach Evans. Today, we will use my personal prospect grading model to evaluate Evans as a prospect and see what kind of player he might become in the NFL.
Prospect Profile: Zach Evans Read More »
Rookie scouting season is here and everyone is starting to research and prep for their rookie drafts. In this series, I will go through my process and scout different players for the incoming 2023 class. My process is mainly through an analytical view. This means I am thinking about hit rates, range of outcomes, and probabilities. I favor these things over whether I think the player is talented because that is not only subjective but also difficult. This consistent, numbers-only process allows me to play the odds and hit more than I miss with these rookies. So follow along as I go through Tulane running back, Tyjae Spears.
2023 Rookie RB Analytics: Tyjae Spears Read More »
Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured, and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight. Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.
Dynasty Market Sweep: Post-Draft Rookie RB Market Report Read More »
Sports Illustrated reported that over 10 NFL Teams graded Desmond Ridder as a First-Round Talent. Should Ridder meet that expected capital, his dynasty value will skyrocket above 1.12. Landing Ridder anywhere in the second half of your rookie drafts is exceptional value. I would not be surprised to see Ridder valued higher than every quarterback from the 2022 class come this time next season.
2022 DFF Superflex Rookie Mock 4.0: Round 1 Read More »
We have a mantra at Dynasty Football Factory that has propelled a focus on consistent construction and evaluation of our dynasty rosters: #AlwaysBeBuilding. My rankings are built with the same forward direction. I aspire to be as transparent as possible in my process to provide you with a better understanding of how to value players. These rankings will be continuously updated to reflect an ever-improving player evaluation process. Allow me to walk you through some of the essential anchors I base these rankings around.
Adjusting the Ranks: Psych Ward’s 2022 Rookie Rankings Read More »
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that still feels too low in the market but has a ton to like about him.
Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Tyler Badie Read More »
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has recently shot up boards and is now in pretty much everyone’s top-10, but that is still too low.
Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Rachaad White Read More »
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB and PlayerProfiler to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without any outside opinions or flashy highlights swaying my opinions. Once I collect the players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that has NFL workhorse size and a great production profile but is somehow not in everyone’s top-12 rookie running backs yet.
Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Kevin Harris Read More »
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. The next player of this series is a guy that should be getting more recognition due to how his college team performed but is still being disrespected.
Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Jerome Ford Read More »
This series of articles will cover the process I use to prospect and filter through each year’s rookie class, with each piece outlining a new player. I like using data to initialize my prospect profiles because it’s easy to examine many players quickly. Another reason is that there are no biases, it is strictly transposing stats from SRCFB to my database. This lets me get a clear view of the player’s overall profile without being biased by any outside opinions or flashy highlights. Once I collect the group of players and their stats I put them into groupings and then ultimately rank them. This series is going to kick off with someone who is currently a sleeper but should be talked about at the top of this class.
Rookie Prospecting Through Data: Tyler Allgeier Read More »
Each year in dynasty formats a new set of rookies come in that take your attention away from the veterans and last year’s class. In this article, I am going to break down some of the rookie RBs from the 2020 class and give you some insight on what’s to expect this season and beyond. The 2020 Rookie RBs are like no other, and with the value and hype that each possesses, these backs will likely continue to be great dynasty assets.
2020 Rookie RBs Revisited Read More »
Today’s fantasy landscape grows more and more complex. When evaluating rookie prospects we have so many different stats and metrics to look at. The hard part is figuring out which ones are important and which do not matter. That is where regression analysis can come in and play a large role. I will be using regression analysis to help build a predictive grading model that can be used to easily sift through many players to quickly identify guys to avoid and target. Our end goal when selecting rookies is who will be the best fantasy assets when they hit the NFL, and the best assets are the ones who score us the most fantasy points. To create my rookie model I used regression analysis and sorted through multiple different metrics to determine which correlated to NFL fantasy points per game (FP/G) the most and which correlated the least.
Rookie RB Prospect Model: Regression Analysis Read More »
Jaret Patterson is a shifty runner with quick feet. He won’t blow you away with his 4.58 speed, but he was good at making people miss in college when working with minimal space. There were a lot of red flags on film with Patterson. Several times where bigger defenders were able to take him down without help. He’s hesitant at times when making the decision of which hole to hit. Patterson has excellent ball security and drive. He’s a competitor. He’s a fun player to watch, but I’m not sure his skills are going to translate in the NFL.
DFF Draft Coverage: Jaret Patterson to the WFT Read More »
Javian Hawkins wins with speed. His 4.45 40-yard dash isn’t out of this world, but his tape shows an in-game speed that’s faster than that. He’s lightning in a bottle and was able to gash defenses in college. His acceleration is great. He’s a player that seems to be running at top speed all the time.
DFF Draft Coverage: Javian Hawkins to the Falcons Read More »
Kylin Hill does a lot of things very well. He might now be elite in any one trait, but he doesn’t show many weaknesses on tape. His running style is aggressive and he finishes off runs with violence. He has a second gear that he can hit when he sees space. There isn’t a lot of tape on Hill in 2020, but from what I did see in the LSU game, he has a lot of potential as a runner.
DFF Draft Coverage: Kylin Hill to the Packers Read More »
At his Pro Day, Elijah Mitchell measured 5’10” and 201 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.8. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.40-seconds which equates to a 107.3-Speed Score, 86th percentile. He also achieved a 127.8 burst score, 88th percentile, and an agility score of 11.14, 79th percentile. Mitchell is above average in every athletic testing category and these are very important when talking about RBs. Overall I am impressed with his athletic profile, he has good size and profiles to be an RB that can secure a great touch share in the NFL.
DFF Draft Coverage: Elijah Mitchell to the 49ers Read More »
Chuba Hubbard profiles as more of a committee back because he seems to lack pass-catching ability. With this deficiency, his upside is capped a bit. If given the opportunity, he could jump into a 1st and 2nd down role and could be a consistent producer in a zone scheme. He has great patience, uses his blockers well, and has enough finishing speed to score long TDs.
DFF Draft Coverage: Chuba Hubbard to the Panthers Read More »
Bill Belichick must’ve really missed having someone in that LeGarrette Blount role because Rhamondre Stevenson is a bowling ball running back who can fill that need immediately. From a fantasy perspective, this is a terrible landing spot because trying to figure out who the Patriots are going to utilize each week is still a nightmare. However, it seems like Belichick is trying to build up his defense and establish players in key roles on his offense that have worked for him in the past. The Patriots’ backfield is now a mess filled with Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, Branden Bolden, JJ Taylor, and Stevenson. Stevenson will project to Harris has two years left, while Michel is entering his last year unless New England decides to pick up his option next year. Stevenson is an interesting late third or early fourth-round pick due to the fact that the Blount role has been relevant in the past. But it’s so crowded right now, that you’re hoping he can survive next year’s draft too before really adding much to your fantasy teams and that’s a bet I’m not hoping to take.
DFF Draft Coverage: Rhamondre Stevenson to the Patriots Read More »
Michael Carter averaged eight yards per carry during his senior season at UNC, but the tape really looked underwhelming as a whole. When I watch Michael Carter, I see someone who is always looking at where the hole will be created for him, instead of someone who is running to make yards for himself. On the inside, he keeps a good low pad level, as if to hide from defenders, but doesn’t have the burst to break through early oncoming defenders. On the outside, Carter does well combining his speed and vision, however, his acceleration and deceleration in and out of his cuts are underwhelming which makes him feel slower. I have some big doubts about Carter’s ability as a rusher at the next level.
DFF Draft Coverage: Michael Carter to the Jets Read More »
Trey Sermon barely makes the cutoff for statistically projected relevancy in fantasy be being drafted at the backend of round three by the 49ers. This isn’t a smash spot for Sermon to land by any means due to the carousel of running backs that we’ve seen Shanahan use the past few years. However, if he can stay healthy, he will have the opportunity for big workloads as the only other running backs on the roster are the oft-injured Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, JaMychal Hasty, and newly signed Wayne Gallman. How many of those players have contracts locked up past 2021 right now? None of them. How many of those players are making over one million dollars this year? Only Mostert. Mostert will be the main back until he gets hurt, unfortunately. Sermon has a “get up the field quickly” mentality and is very athletic. He’ll work his way up the depth chart quickly. He’s not the safest pick, but a running back with a path to legit carries in a good offense that wants to run the ball is very enticing. He’s the RB4 in this class unless something craZy happens as we end the third round. I’ll be aiming for Sermon in the middle of round two, but his hype might push him even higher. If he gets to the early second, it’ll be too rich for me.
DFF Draft Coverage: Trey Sermon to the 49ers Read More »
