The DFF Army banded together once again for the 2022 DFF Superflex Rookie Mock 4.0. We are again post-Combine and Pro Day, but now just under a week out from the NFL Draft. Check out every first-round selection below and each writer’s reasoning behind their pick.
1.01 – Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
MG – @AlwaysBBuilding
#ReleaseTheBreece is my new Rookie 1.01 battle cry. I’ve gone back and forth over the past few months reviewing film, watching, rewatching, rewinding, pausing, critiquing, etc., and have finally come to the conclusion that Breece Hall is my unquestioned 1.01. Full transparency, since early last year Malik Willis held that distinction and considering these are Superflex mocks it wouldn’t be a poor selection, but I’ve turned a corner and find myself walking down a different “Hall”.
Rookie drafts are usually easy going through the first two rounds. Lessen the risk, go BPA, and use logic and sensibility. Scooping up Hall at the 1.01 isn’t earth-shattering by any means. However, there is still a deeper logic sans using an analytical approach which I activated in making this selection, and here it is…
Without a clear-cut QB1 in this rookie class, coupled with riding on the heels of a highly-touted 2020 QB class that for all intents and purposes face-planted in year one I was able to confidently push that consideration aside. As for the WR group, there’s a bountiful crop to choose from this year, but no one really stands out as the true WR1, at least in my humble opinion, and although this is a TEP format draft there certainly isn’t a Kyle Pitts to consider.
Therefore, with positional options now considered, and systematically shelved, I turned my attention to this year’s RB class. There are a handful of backs to be sure, however, Breece Hall is in a class all his own, and has comfortably separated himself from the rest of the pack. Not to mention, RB is the hardest position to fortify on rosters so, unless I receive an offer I can’t refuse to move the 1.01, then I’m taking Hall with the utmost confidence and not looking back. It’s time to #ReleaseTheBreece!
1.02 – Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
Chris Miles – @ChrisMiles1017
Here I am in the 1.02 spot again, and here I am drafting Malik Willis again. I hear the concerns about Malik Willis being a capable NFL QB; I have the same concerns. He is not as good of a prospect as Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, or Trey Lance. But, he is not a bad prospect. In fact, my QB model put him in the Elite bucket which carries a 90% hit rate (since 2012) of being the QB12 or better in two of the first three seasons of a player’s career. This is mainly due to Malik’s projected draft capital, and this capital will give him job security for four years at a minimum. This security paired with his rushing upside makes him a must draft after Breece Hall in Superflex rookie drafts.
1.03 – Drake London, WR, USC
Chris Museezer – @force_fantasy
A big part of doing these rookie mocks is understanding what position you need to be in to get your guy. In our DFF mock draft 2.0 a month ago, I was able to get Drake London at the 2.01 pick. In our DFF mock draft 3.0, London went third overall to @AlwaysBBuilding. We were able to select our draft position for this mock and with London being “my guy” I selected the third overall pick to ensure I get him.
London is my top wide receiver overall. His profile is elite across the board for all the major predictive metrics. He broke out (over 20% market share of USC’s receiving yards plus touchdowns) as a true freshman. Before he fractured his ankle, he was having an incredible season with 1,084 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in only eight games. This was good for a 3.27 receiving yards per team pass attempt at the time.
London averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game over his college career and looks as close to a sure thing as we have at the position in this draft.
1.04 – Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Conan Grune @1stat1day
With Drake London going at the 1.03, Wilson slides in as the 1.04 being my overall WR1 in the class. Though London has frequently been projected to have the higher draft capital, Wilson has all the makings to be a smooth receiver in the NFL.
Highlighted by his 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine, he has the speed and quick acceleration to be more than just a deep threat, with the ability to slip tackles post-catch and fly. His 6’0” 192 lbs. frame carries some concern, but Wilson constantly fought through pressure and brought down tough 50-50 balls.
Stronger dominator ratings might have cemented his ranking among this class’ receivers, but Wilson had at least one other talented pass-catcher to compete with during his tenure at OSU. Working alongside Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba intermittently during his collegiate career, he still broke out just after hitting age 20. Often compared to Jerry Jeudy and Diontae Johnson, look for Wilson to be among the first three receivers off the draft board as a strong WR2 for years to come.
1.05 – Kenneth Walker, RB, Michigan State
Scott Osterloh – @FF_EvilEmpire
At the 1.05 of this Superflex rookie mock draft, it was no surprise that the RB2 of this class was available here. Walker had a measly 19 receptions over three collegiate seasons, which has blocked his stock from rising much higher than fifth overall in rookie SF drafts. That said, Walker had 64 receptions in three years of high school action, leading me to believe his lack of college receiving production was due to system and not talent, reminiscent of Jonathan Taylor at Wisconsin a few years ago.
With that in mind going into the draft, I was thrilled to select Walker in this spot. The former Wake Forest and Michigan State runner has all the tools to be a three-down workhorse back. His size (5’9” and 211 lbs.) allows him to play a compact, powerful style. His speed (4.38 40-yard dash) is in the 98th percentile for all RBs, which gives the 21-year-old back home run potential on every play. Finally, his explosiveness and instant one-cut approach should lead to success moving the chains as a future starter at the NFL level.
Last but not least, according to PlayerProfiler.com, Walker’s best comparable running back is LaDainian freaking Tomlinson…a terrific sign that Walker will produce solid fantasy results for years to come!
1.06 – Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
Paul Patterson – @fantasyfreezer
In most scenarios, I’d be thrilled to get Treylon Burks here as the WR3. But why draft the same players in the same slots in every mock draft? That’s neither fun nor particularly helpful. Instead, I grabbed my current WR4: Chris Olave.
Early in the process, I had my concerns about Olave because he didn’t declare early and he was out-produced by Garrett Wilson and Jaxson Smith-Njigba in his senior season. However, I’ve come around thanks to the work of analysts like Matt Harmon and JJ Zachariason. When you account for projected draft capital (top-20 according to grindingthemocks.com), Olave has a strong case for inclusion in 2022’s top tier of WRs.
1.07 – Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Carl – @RookieWhisper
I was sitting with my fingers crossed for several picks, and my wish came true! Treylon Burks, my Pre-Draft WR2 fell to me! I have been high on Burks since early 2021 (see my profile here) and I still remain “IN” on this talented WR. On paper, Burks has nearly everything you’re looking for: a sophomore year breakout, dominant production, plus size, and early declaration to the NFL Draft.
My biggest concern with Burks coming into 2022 was his usage and alignment at Arkansas. Prior to 2022, Treylon was used almost exclusively in the slot, and I wanted to see if we could play outside. In 2022, Burks did play more on the outside and was very productive doing so, especially against press coverage:
Ever since the NFL Combine, Burks has been undeservedly falling down lots of analyst’s boards. This is undoubtedly due to his “poor” Combine performance. I believe the real issue here is that many people thought Burks was going to run a 4.3 40-yard dash and jump out of the building. They were then shocked and utterly disappointed by his 4.55 40-yard dash and 33” vertical. His speed score is still 86th percentile and his vertical is comparable to Tee Higgins (31”) and Mike Williams (32.5”) who still excel at the catch point. I only care about the Combine in how it affects Draft Capital, and Burks is still slated to go Round 1 so *shoulder shrug*.
1.08 – Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M
Billy Beaman – @WillieBeamanDFF
When Spiller falls to you at 1.08 you take him. I was surprised both Walker and Olave were selected ahead considering the scarcity of top-end players at the running back position this year. We’ve seen him go 1.08 or later in multiple DFF mocks so maybe this is just where he ends up, but I’m convinced he’ll rise up the board post-NFL Draft unless he falls into the third round or later for some strange reason. I think Spiller has some work to do from a footwork and technique standpoint but he’s an outstanding athlete with a skill set including pass-catching prowess that translates very well at the next level. I really like the value here.
1.09 – Jameson Williams, WR Alabama
DocFFFN – @DocFFFN
Contrary to your author’s beliefs, mock draft number four saw QBs fall. In our second mock nine weeks ago, as well as our previous rendition three weeks ago, QBs were rising up the draft board, as more information was available on them (aside from film). When the NFL Draft begins, analysts and dynasty owners alike will have draft capital to lean on and will stake their claim on their preferred top QB. Your author still expects there to be at least two and potentially three QBs selected in the top half of the first round of most Superflex drafts. Matt Corral was nearly the pick here (spoiler alert: one of our esteemed DFF analysts gets a steal later in this mock), but perhaps this says more about Jameson Williams.
This time, your author had to select Williams three spots early than mock 3.0 and one spot earlier than mock 2.0. Selecting at the end of the draft, ideally, an owner would have time and a balanced roster to await Williams’ return from his torn ACL. Many feel that had Williams been fully healthy to run at the Combine he would have registered a time in the 4.2s. At 6’2” and 180 lbs. with a frame that allows for added weight, that is a prospect to bet on. Moreover, his sheer dominance of the SEC and early-declare status makes him a coveted asset. Williams was mentioned back in September 2021 by your author as a likely NFL first-round pick. Four months ago, in the first rendition of this mock draft, he was obtained at #19 overall in the mid-second.
There is no denying that Alabama in recent years has produced the most NFL-ready receivers to enter the league. Williams looks to be the next.
1.10 – Rachaad White, RB, Arizona State University
Jared Hines – @Ship_Chaser
6’0” 214 lbs. Birthday: 1/2/1999
40-yard dash: 4.48 seconds
38” vertical 10’5” broad jump
Positional considerations really start to come into play here at the back of the first round. I hold this pick in a number of my short bench FFPC leagues and am not in love with any of the players available at this spot. I expect Desmond Ridder to be drafted much higher by the NFL and subsequently in Superflex rookie drafts. I don’t anticipate him being available here at 1.10, but if he were I would have a hard decision between him and White here.
I went with the RB with a three-down skill set and a strong athletic profile. White ran for 1,006 yards on 182 carries with 15 TDs as a senior. He also caught an impressive 43 balls for 456 more yards and one TD. Many sharp drafters have taken him earlier than I was expecting in startups I have participated in this offseason, as well as BestBall Tournaments. He is routinely coming off as the fourth RB. The real question will be whether he is more of a Trey Sermon or Ke’Shawn Vaughn type where they get drafted in fantasy much earlier than they should.
1.11 – Kenneth Shane Pickett, QB, University of Pittsburgh
Charles – @Heady_Football
First off, don’t come at me by telling me how to spell his name. Kenneth Shane Pickett is a man and deserves respect. Why do you ask? Simple, when your name is above one Daniel Constantine Marino, Jr. in the record books for a season AND career touchdowns and yards, put some respect on that name. Also, I completely ignore hand size because I know of two elite quarterbacks with less than desirable pigskin tossers in Patrick Mahomes and some other quarterback…
…and both of them have hands under 9.25-inches.
Granted, he did fumble the ball 23 times while at Pitt so that is concerning and people will again point to his hand size, AGAIN, but fun facts: Desmond Ridder with his massive 10-inch mitts fumbled it 21 times and Malik Willis led the NCAA in 2020 with 10 fumbles. So despite all those rumors, hand size isn’t everything. In response to his fumbles, I respond with two things. One, there hasn’t been a single offensive lineman from Pittsburgh drafted in the 200 picks since Brian O’Neill in 2018, which ironically was Pickett’s first year as a starter and his second-highest Y/A and AY/A (yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt). Lastly? According to teamrankings, he had 19 fumbles in 39 games over his first four seasons. Then, last year, he only had four fumbles in 13 games. Which to me highlights his understanding of the game and those around him, plus his growth. A helluva lot of growth. Which is what you want to see from a franchise QB.
Finally, let’s talk about why I believe his growth came so late and why that does not concern me. Mark Whipple was brought in for the 2019 football season as the offensive coordinator and we all know about how players and coaches take time to figure each other out. Typically people don’t expect much from coaches until year four but they do want growth each year.
In year one, most players struggle as they adapt to a new system and even more so when there isn’t a lot of talent around them such as Pickett at Pitt so toss those stats out the window. Year two was cut short due to an ankle injury but we saw an increase in his rushing usage which in today’s fantasy world is much needed from the position. People will clamor about his decrease in his pass attempts per game, yards, etc. but what we did see was an increase in his Y/A and AY/A which is always promising. Granted, it was still sub-10, but seeing this type of growth shows me that there is a future. Finally, last year we saw it all come together. Not only did he rush for a career-high but he threw for 4,300-plus years and more than doubled his career touchdown production with 43 scores. It helped that he had Jordan Addison catching passes but he still had to make those throws. With his good, but not great, arm he will continue that into the NFL.
Overall, Pickett to me is the only quarterback that can produce at the next level on Day 1, which is what you love to see when selecting in the back half of a super flex league. He might not be able to be a perennial top-12 QB however, he should end up as a solid QB2 with occasional QB1 upside, He will be able to add much-needed depth to your QB roster and enable you to move on from the aging veteran you currently have as your third-string QB and potentially be able to trade back into the draft in the second round.
1.12 – Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Matt Ward @PsychWardFF
Desmond Ridder is a polarizing name on the rookie circuit leading to the 2022 NFL Draft. His stock exploded after performing at the top of the class in every drill at the NFL Combine.
Combine Results:
- 40-Yard Dash – 4.52s
- Vertical Leap – 36″
- Broad Jump – 127″
- 3 Cone Drill – 7.15s
- 20-Yd Shuttle – 4.29s
There are notable questions surrounding Ridder’s ability to read pro-level defenses. However, he has found a way to succeed at every level of the game thus far, recording a 44-6 collegiate record (third all-time FBS). His athleticism offers the ability to extend the length of his reads while outside of the pocket. Ridder’s speed score ranks in the 94th percentile. If the defensive coverage doesn’t give way, Ridder is more than capable of picking up significant gains as a rusher. Any concerns with Ridder’s profile are quickly dissipating amongst NFL scouts and dynasty managers alike.
Sports Illustrated reported that over 10 NFL Teams graded Desmond Ridder as a First-Round Talent. Should Ridder meet that expected capital, his dynasty value will skyrocket above 1.12. Landing Ridder anywhere in the second half of your rookie drafts is exceptional value. I would not be surprised to see Ridder valued higher than every quarterback from the 2022 class come this time next season.
