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Fantasy Hits and Misses

Fantasy Hits and Misses

Looking back and reviewing hits and misses each year is a task I encourage every analyst to perform. Not only is it part of holding yourself accountable, but it’s an opportunity to reflect and improve your fantasy football chops. As a community, we aren’t great at admitting when we’re wrong but this gives us the chance to pat ourselves on the back for our victories while also learning from our mistakes. We can’t get them all right and most of the time fewer than we’d like but we can gain a lot from evaluating both. 

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How the '21 Salary Cap Changed the NFL

How the ’21 Salary Cap Changes the NFL

In March the NFL set the salary cap at $182.5 million. Which was a significant drop from 2020’s $198.2 million and even below 2019’s $188.2 million. It was the first time in seven years the cap didn’t increase by at least $10 million. With everything typically trending up, NFL teams faced cap issues heading into the 2021 offseason. We’ve already seen teams cutting veteran players and restructuring contracts. With a few notable free agents still out there and draft day approaching, what other moves could we see as teams maneuver around the cap?

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The Myth of Vacated Targets

Every season teams lose valuable receiving options from the prior year, and every season fantasy managers daydream about the possibility of a random bench piece inheriting all that volume. While this narrative has played about favorably for a handful of players, in the grand scheme of the NFL, it is actually very rare. “Vacated Targets” is the snake oil of fantasy football. Don’t let yourself get duped.

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Dynasty Risers and Fallers Week 8

Dynasty Risers and Fallers: Week 8

In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding. I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.

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Week 7 Thursday Night Storylines

Last week, I wrote a couple of articles breaking down the early and late games on the Week 6 slate. I picked one dynasty storyline from each contest, and I focused on that topic to give my readers something to watch for during the game. I thought it was a fun, light article, but I also believed it provided actionable and exciting information on those games.

Now, I want to take that idea a step further. I’ll give a complete dynasty breakdown of the upcoming Giants-Eagles Thursday night contest. I want to make sure you all know what to focus on for your dynasty teams. Being prepared before the game will allow you to react quickly and to become a better dynasty owner.

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@DynastyDiagnos1 DFF Redraft Championship Draft

As expected, McCaffrey was the first overall selection, leaving me facing down the barrel of the next best dual-threat running back in Saquon Barkley. Barkley surpassed 1,000-yards rushing in 2019 despite missing time and is the most talented pass-catcher on the roster. By the time the 2.11 pick came around 16 running backs and 6 wide receivers had been selected. Choosing between Jonathan Taylor, Allen Robinson, and Travis Kelce at the top of their respective positions I decided that Kelce offered the best value over a replacement player at his position. At the 3.02 turn with Kittle having been selected it was far too tantalizing to pass up the opportunity to stack Kelce and Patrick Mahomes. Referencing the above tweet from Scott Barrett, the plan was to go all on stacking the RB1, TE1, and QB1 and hope for the best when it comes to depth.

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Darius Slayton Dynasty Profile

Darius Slayton: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Darius Slayton was drafted by the New York Giants with a conditional fifth-round pick in 2019. After missing the first two games with a hamstring injury, he started exceeding expectations. Over the next 14 games, Slayton started establishing a noticeable rapport with fellow rookie Daniel Jones as he led NY in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, yards per catch, and receiving first downs. It’s rare for a day-three pick to turn out and even rarer for one to turn in such an impressive rookie season. Slayton even finished second on the team in both catches and targets, trailing Golden Tate by one in each category. The combination of talent and opportunity was perfect for Slayton to impress from the jump. 

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2nd Year Breakout Wide Receivers: Part 3

The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered.  If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.

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Why Veterans Key Champs

Why Veterans Are the Key to Fantasy Championships: A 2020 Edition

In dynasty leagues, there’s always a delicate balance that owners must forge between dynasty value and winning championships. In the end, the goal is to win the most championships possible, as quickly as possible. However, sometimes, dynasty owners need to rebuild and trade away their veterans to return to contending status.

There’s nothing wrong with that approach, as I detailed in an article guiding dynasty owners in determining whether they’re contenders or not. Taking a mild step backward to take a big step forward is a healthy decision and often tough to make. With that said, I want to move away from individual dynasty teams and look more closely at how two specific groups of players have performed over time. It’s time for an in-depth breakdown of what rookies and older veterans do for your roster.

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Sleeper Series: Sterling Shepard

Sleeper Series: Sterling Shepard

Now, I want to jump into Sterling Shepard. I wrote a redraft breakdown about Shepard and the rest of the Giants in May as my first piece in that 32-part series. Outside of star running back Saquon Barkley, the Giants have four secondary offensive options in Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and Shepard. Back then, I recommended fading Shepard and saw Golden Tate as the best sleeper in the Giants offense. However, at this point, I’ve come around to Shepard as the best overall option at cost. Let’s get into why.

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Redraft Mock Analysis

PPR Redraft Mock Analysis

I recently took part in a 1QB, PPR redraft mock with eleven other members of the DFF crew. I was very happy with the results, so I’d like to break down my team and my decision-making process throughout the draft. I entered the draft planning to select RBs in the first three rounds before addressing any other positions. This strategy, which I broke down in great detail here, is one I’ve been implementing whenever possible this offseason. I expected to target WR in the middle rounds while waiting to get my QB and TE late, which worked out perfectly.

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Jamison Crowder: 2020 Dynasty Profile

It never ceases to amaze me that the majority of people will continue to buy “brand names” items, regardless of the price. This holds true in nearly all facets of society and even extends to fantasy football. Jamison Crowder is not a brand name item. Crowder played in all 16 games last season, starting 12. He led the Jets in targets (122), catches (78), receiving yards (833), and receiving touchdowns (6). Crowder was also quarterback Sam Darnold’s favorite receiver and served as his reliable safety net time and time again.

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Golden Tate: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Golden Tate finished five straight seasons with over 100 targets prior to being traded to the Giants in 2019 and dealing with a fading Eli Manning and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones. From 2014-2017 Tate had four straight seasons of 90+ catches and was a top 25 receiver each year. He’s also one of five players since 2013 with over 20% target share ever year, below are the others. 

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Redraft Team Focus: Giants

With the NFL Draft behind us and most of free agency completed, it’s time for me to begin my biggest redraft project of the offseason. I’m going to analyze every one of the 32 NFL teams and all of their redraft-relevant fantasy assets. It’s a long project, but I want to make sure that our readers have something they can refer to for every team. For each article, I’ll split up the fantasy assets into three categories: high-end assets, usable contributors, and dart throws. Let’s start with the Giants since they’re my hometown team.

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Eric Ebron to the Steelers

If I had to describe Ebron’s prevailing narrative, I would say that most dynasty owners consider Ebron to be a complete bust, who then had one outlier season in 2018 before fading back to normal in 2019. However, that narrative isn’t real. Ebron was consistently mediocre from 2015-2017, finishing as a high-end TE2 in each year. Both 2018 and 2019 are outliers compared to that stretch of middling performances. To determine the truth about Ebron, we need to go back and look beyond the top-line stats.

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Dead to Me: Redraft

Have you ever had that feeling of frustration that you can’t shake? These two players make me feel that way. I will never deal with these players again in redraft formats. They’ve both burned me multiple times, and I want no part of them in 2020. I’m not saying that these players are worthless, but I will look for any way to pick someone else in redraft. All ranks are for a PPR format.

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