dynasty

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Bills

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The Bills

Dynasty / By /

After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?

Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.

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49ers backfield

Knee Deep in Muddy Backfields: The 49ers

Dynasty / By /

After the NFL Draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While it’s possible some backfields continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?

To access this post, you must purchase a DFF Membership.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Jaret Patterson to the WFT

Rookie / By /

Jaret Patterson is a shifty runner with quick feet. He won’t blow you away with his 4.58 speed, but he was good at making people miss in college when working with minimal space. There were a lot of red flags on film with Patterson. Several times where bigger defenders were able to take him down without help. He’s hesitant at times when making the decision of which hole to hit. Patterson has excellent ball security and drive. He’s a competitor. He’s a fun player to watch, but I’m not sure his skills are going to translate in the NFL.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Kylin Hill to the Packers

Rookie / By /

Kylin Hill does a lot of things very well. He might now be elite in any one trait, but he doesn’t show many weaknesses on tape. His running style is aggressive and he finishes off runs with violence. He has a second gear that he can hit when he sees space. There isn’t a lot of tape on Hill in 2020, but from what I did see in the LSU game, he has a lot of potential as a runner.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Elijah Mitchell to the 49ers

Rookie / By /

At his Pro Day, Elijah Mitchell measured 5’10” and 201 lbs, giving him a BMI of 28.8. His best 40-yard dash time was 4.40-seconds which equates to a 107.3-Speed Score, 86th percentile. He also achieved a 127.8 burst score, 88th percentile, and an agility score of 11.14, 79th percentile. Mitchell is above average in every athletic testing category and these are very important when talking about RBs. Overall I am impressed with his athletic profile, he has good size and profiles to be an RB that can secure a great touch share in the NFL.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Simi Fehoko to the Cowboys

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Simi Fehoko had 62 receptions for 1,146 and nine touchdowns in his three-year college career at Stanford. Fehoko is another wide receiver on the older side entering the draft at 23 years old. Although Fehoko is listed as playing three years he was a reserve as a freshman and played just four games catching a single pass for six total yards. He broke out as a sophomore finishing 2019 with 24 catches for 566 yards and six touchdowns. Fehokofollowed up his breakout season with an underwhelming 2020 where he caught 37 passes for just 574 yards and three touchdowns. Most of his production came in two games, however, he did account for 35.7% of his team’s offensive production. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Ian Book to the Saints

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Ian Book finished his four-year career with the second-most career passing yards in Notre Dame’s history (8,948). He also finished second in career passing touchdowns (72) and second in career QBR (147.0) amongst those who attempted 500 or more passes. Book also put up great rushing statistics in college as well. In 45 career games, he produced 1,517 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. The dual-threat quarterback can beat you both with his arm or with his legs, and in today’s game, being able to pass or run on any given down creates a major disadvantage for defenses. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Rhamondre Stevenson to the Patriots

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Bill Belichick must’ve really missed having someone in that LeGarrette Blount role because Rhamondre Stevenson is a bowling ball running back who can fill that need immediately. From a fantasy perspective, this is a terrible landing spot because trying to figure out who the Patriots are going to utilize each week is still a nightmare. However, it seems like Belichick is trying to build up his defense and establish players in key roles on his offense that have worked for him in the past. The Patriots’ backfield is now a mess filled with Damien Harris, Sony Michel, James White, Branden Bolden, JJ Taylor, and Stevenson. Stevenson will project to Harris has two years left, while Michel is entering his last year unless New England decides to pick up his option next year. Stevenson is an interesting late third or early fourth-round pick due to the fact that the Blount role has been relevant in the past. But it’s so crowded right now, that you’re hoping he can survive next year’s draft too before really adding much to your fantasy teams and that’s a bet I’m not hoping to take.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Michael Carter to the Jets

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Michael Carter averaged eight yards per carry during his senior season at UNC, but the tape really looked underwhelming as a whole. When I watch Michael Carter, I see someone who is always looking at where the hole will be created for him, instead of someone who is running to make yards for himself. On the inside, he keeps a good low pad level, as if to hide from defenders, but doesn’t have the burst to break through early oncoming defenders. On the outside, Carter does well combining his speed and vision, however, his acceleration and deceleration in and out of his cuts are underwhelming which makes him feel slower. I have some big doubts about Carter’s ability as a rusher at the next level.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Tre’ McKitty to the Chargers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The former Florida State tight end found a home in Georgia after transferring this past season due to the turmoil that is the Florida State program right now. His knee injury in the pre-season limited his production this season to just six catches for 108 yards and a score. He was known for pass-catching in his high school days but has transitioned to being more dominant in the run blocking game. He still shows flashes of his catching ability by being able to take big hits and holding onto the ball. Look for him to be a target in the red zone due to his strong hands and large catch radius. He will be a boom or bust type fantasy player until he can solidify his role in the league.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Trey Sermon to the 49ers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Trey Sermon barely makes the cutoff for statistically projected relevancy in fantasy be being drafted at the backend of round three by the 49ers. This isn’t a smash spot for Sermon to land by any means due to the carousel of running backs that we’ve seen Shanahan use the past few years. However, if he can stay healthy, he will have the opportunity for big workloads as the only other running backs on the roster are the oft-injured Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, JaMychal Hasty, and newly signed Wayne Gallman. How many of those players have contracts locked up past 2021 right now? None of them. How many of those players are making over one million dollars this year? Only Mostert. Mostert will be the main back until he gets hurt, unfortunately. Sermon has a “get up the field quickly” mentality and is very athletic. He’ll work his way up the depth chart quickly. He’s not the safest pick, but a running back with a path to legit carries in a good offense that wants to run the ball is very enticing. He’s the RB4 in this class unless something craZy happens as we end the third round. I’ll be aiming for Sermon in the middle of round two, but his hype might push him even higher. If he gets to the early second, it’ll be too rich for me.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Amari Rodgers to the Packers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Amari Rodgers played four full seasons with Clemson, and he didn’t produce high-level statistics until his Senior season. In his four-year college career, Rodgers produced a total of 181 receptions for 2,144 yards and 15 touchdowns. After his Freshman season, we caught glimpses of Rodgers starting to mold into a college star. He caught 55 passes for 575 yards and four touchdowns during his sophomore season. Unfortunately, he took a step back and caught 25 fewer passes and only produced 426 yards and four touchdowns his Junior year. Finally, he took over as one of the best pass-catchers in the nation in his final season at Clemson. He produced career-highs in receptions (77), receiving yards (1,020), and receiving touchdowns (7). His 1,020 receiving yards placed him 10th amongst all wide receivers in Division 1 last season. He has the talent and experience to become a reliable target and return specialist at the pro level.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Josh Palmer to the Chargers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

At his Tennessee Pro Day, Josh Palmer measured in at 6’1” and 210 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 27.7. He ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash, equating to a 101.52-Speed Score, and at 6’1” that is a 102.02-Height Adjusted Speed Score. Both scores place him in the 67th percentile or higher. He doesn’t show elite athleticism as he recorded a 34” vertical jump, 124” broad jump, and he ran the short shuttle in 4.25 seconds and the three-cone in 6.98 seconds. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Davis Mills to the Texans

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Davis Mills was ranked as the top overall quarterback in the class of 2017, ahead of Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Mac Jones. Mills took over as the starting quarterback for Stanford as a true freshman. Mills accumulated just 3,468 passing yards and 18 TDs versus eight INTs in his four-year collegiate career at Stanford. Mills is strictly a pocket-passer and does not offer any threat on the ground for defenders.

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DFF Draft Coverage: Terrace Marshall Jr. to the Panthers

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

Despite being overshadowed by his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, Terrace Marshall is an excellent prospect in his own right. He’s got prototypical size and impressive athleticism. He broke out at an early age and demonstrated his ability to dominate an offense. He did fall a little further than expected in the draft, but as a second round, he will be given every opportunity to succeed in the league. I believe Marshall is firmly entrenched as a top-five wide receiver in this class, perhaps even top three. He’s an excellent player to target at the backend of the first round or early second round in Superflex rookie drafts. 

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DFF Draft Coverage: Tutu Atwell to the Rams

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

At his Louisville Pro Day, Tutu Atwell measured in at 5’9” and 155 lbs. Which equates to a BMI of 22.9. His 40-yard dash time was 4.44-seconds, his burst score was 114.6, and his agility score was 10.96. All of these metrics are pretty average for his size, but they are not awful which is all that matters for a WR. Tutu’s only red flag here would be his BMI, and his BMI being so low is a little scary. I do not feel BMI and size are too predictive for NFL success, but we just haven’t seen anyone this small before so it is hard to say for sure.

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DFF Draft Coverage: D’Wayne Eskridge to the Seahawks

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

D’Wayne Eskridge had 121 receptions for 2,244 yards in his five-year college career at Western Michigan. He is one of the older wide receivers in this class at 24 years old and played an extra season as a super senior after being converted to a defensive back in 2019 and suffering a clavicle injury that ended his year. Eskridge didn’t truly break out until his sophomore season and comes in with a BOA of 20.5 (52nd percentile). He finished the 2020 season with 33 receptions for 768 yards and eight touchdowns, accounting for an incredible 45% of his team’s offensive production and 5.95 adjusted yards per team pass attempt. The offense ran through him. 

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