After the NFL draft, there are quite a few backfields without a clear picture of who the workload is going to fall on. While some backfields may continue as committees, more than likely, a few of them will have one guy receive a large volume of the work. That’s what I’m aiming to dive into in this series: who will emerge from the muddy backfields and cement their place as a fantasy value this season?
Luckily, JJ Zachariason has already put in the research to show us what to look for. Breakout running backs typically aren’t handcuffs. They come from ambiguous backfields and are oftentimes drafted as the 2nd back from their team. Pass catchers have an easier route to breakout, as there is typically a three rush to one reception workload ratio. Most importantly, age doesn’t matter. Players in their 5th year are just as likely as rookies to break out in these situations.
Current Depth Chart
The Bills didn’t do much with their backfield this offseason. They brought in Matt Breida and will return Zack Moss and Devin Singletary. I expect the depth chart to shake out like this:
- Devin Singletary
- Zack Moss
- Matt Breida
Lead Back or Committee?
The Bills are a split backfield. Last season Singletary accounted for 57% of the snaps while Moss was in for 45%. Singletary saw 44 more carries than Moss, but 42 of them came between Week 3 through 5, when Moss was out with injury.
The Bills backfield can account for fantasy success if know who the work is going to. When a back received 60% or more of the snaps in a game last season, they finished as the RB19, RB14, RB46, RB34, RB28, and RB25. While none of these are week-winning performances, they are decent enough for a flex player. The Bills running backs are seldom more than flex plays though. In 2020 the backfield was able to put up eight top-24 performances but only one was a finish inside the top-10.
The problem with the Bills’ backfield is the lack of touchdown upside. Neither back has great finishing speed (the longest run between them last season was for 34 yards), so they don’t break off long runs for scores. This resulted in the two backs combining for only six rushing touchdowns as opposed to Josh Allen’s eight. Allen functions as their goal-line back.
Who Do I Roster?
I’m not excited about rostering either Moss or Singletary. Singletary offers a little more upside because he seems to get more of the passing work, but Moss gets more play around the goal line. Realistically neither are going to win you a week. The best performance between the two last season was an RB5 finish from Moss, where he accounted for 20.1 PPR points. If the ceiling is a 20-point performance and they struggle to get over 12 points regularly, a feat achieved only 6 times last season, there isn’t a lot of upside with either guy.
I’m not looking to roster either because, unless one is out with injury, there isn’t a clear path as to who is getting the touches. The Bills offense will continue to be effective throwing the ball, but as long as Josh Allen is their quarterback, he is the most valuable runner on the team.
If I have either guy, I’m looking to trade them to a running back needy team for an early-2nd round rookie pick. I’d rather take the shot on Trey Sermon or Michael Carter than play the guessing game week in and week out.
Thanks for reading! If you have any fantasy questions, reach out to me on Twitter @fantasyonefive, and be sure to check out the rest of my work on DFF!
