dynasty

2022 Projections: Buffalo Bills

Dynasty / By /

First, I’ll just touch on my process. I start by looking at the team and individual player trends over the last two to three seasons. I get stats like target shares, rush attempt shares, yards per carry, yards per reception, completion percentage, touchdown shares, etc. As well as team-focused metrics like pass-to-rush play ratio (this is team pass attempts divided by team rush attempts), pass-to-rush touchdown ratio, and plays per game. I then use these past trends to predict what will be in store for 2022. Here are my projections for the Buffalo Bills’ fantasy-relevant players. 

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Baltimore Ravens

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (offseason edition). Us Dynasty Managers need to be constantly researching ways we can bolster our rosters. Do you need advice on who to trade for? Maybe you’re looking for players to trade away. Do you have enough young talent to ensure your roster is set for years to come? Maybe you’re going all in and need a couple of pieces to sharpen your team. During this series, we dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing. As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Baltimore Ravens. 

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2022 Projections: Baltimore Ravens

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When we loosely compare players, most people feel they have a good idea of what kind of production to expect. We may think “Oh yeah, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman can both easily eclipse 1000 yards while J.K. Dobbins is an RB1 and Gus Edwards is a solid flex play.” But, there may just not be room for that kind of production. I make projections to ground myself and help to understand what is actually possible, probable, or realistic. So, in this series, I will be going through each NFL team and making median projections for their 2022 seasons with their most fantasy-relevant players. I may be able to discern if certain players are being undervalued immediately but in most cases, I will need to finish more teams to get a good idea. 

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Skyy Moore: Draft or Pass

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Skyy Moore is an intriguing prospect in the 2022 class. The WR coming out of Western Michigan University dominated the MAC since he stepped on the field. There are people with concerns about why he wasn’t at a big school but there is simple reasoning for that. Throughout his high school career, he played QB and CB so schools never saw what he was capable of at receiver. 

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Wan’Dale Robinson: Draft or Pass

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Wan’Dale Robinson is currently the most disrespected prospect in the 2022 Rookie Class by far as he’s slotted as a late second/early third-round rookie pick. The only reason I continue to see people point to is that his size will be an issue. What those people fail to realize is that the NFL is changing quickly and they are valuing the guys with short-area quickness that allow their quarterbacks to get the ball into playmakers’ hands and let them pick up yardage. I am well aware Daniel Jones is as far as possible from Tom Brady but the notion that small slot players can’t dominate targets on offense is overstated.

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Did We Just Witness the Best WR room in College Football History?

Devy / By /

Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba combined for 3,600/4,952 (73%) of Ohio State’s team passing yards as well as 34/46 (74%) of total passing TDs. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson have gone down as two of the best Buckeye receivers ever after going back-to-back in the NFL Draft at number 10 and 11 overall. Jaxon on the other hand, who was the most productive of the three, will be back in Columbus for his junior season where he’s been named a team captain and he’s one of the favorites to bring home the Biletnikoff Award. Let’s take a deeper look into each of these players and why we may have just witnessed the best WR room in the history of college football.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Las Vegas Raiders

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There’s only one obvious fantasy player that sees a decent fantasy boost going into the 2022 season. “Bring in the Carr.” What most fantasy managers don’t realize is that he has improved steadily throughout his career. His completion percentage has improved mightily since entering the league. He smashed his career-high in passing yards this past season. Sure, he’s turned the ball over a little more as of late, but what’s most important is that Carr finished as the QB13 in 2021, which is tied for the second-best finish (2016 was his best) during his eight-year career. Barring injuries, he should have no problem serving as the QB12 or better going forward now that his former college teammate, Davante Adams, is hauling in passes from him once again. 

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2022 Projections: Atlanta Falcons

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I do not like the Falcons’ offense for fantasy, they will play slow, they will not score many touchdowns, and they will not pass the ball much. The only asset worth spending a high pick on is Kyle Pitts. I could see myself owning some Patterson, Allgeier, and Mariota though as I think they will be fairly cheap options. I do think London may be over-drafted though, given the recent rookie WR production and not thinking about how inept this offense may be. I have Mariota as a mid to high QB2, Patterson as a high RB3, Allgeier as a low RB4, London as a mid WR3, Edwards and Olamide are not on my board, and Pitts as a mid to high TE1. Hopefully, this offense is good and passes a lot in 2022 but I would not bet on it.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: New England Patriots

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Do you know the last time a Patriot running back led the team in rushing for more than two seasons in a row? Corey Dillon accomplished that feat when he led the team in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Although Harris has yet to top 1,000 yards rushing in a season as a pro, he has led the team in rushing two seasons in a row now. History leans that his streak may end this season, as only three backs (Dillon, Antowain Smith, and Curtis Martin) have led the team in rushing in three consecutive seasons since 1991. Of course, you can’t base everything on history, especially in today’s game. But here’s what we know: the Patriots are quick to move off of backs, they hardly extend any of them, and they typically draft one (or two) each year. 

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2022 Projections: Arizona Cardinals

Dynasty / By /

For the Cardinals I have their QB, Kyler Murray Projected to be an elite fantasy asset, as he normally is. 4,400 yards, 36 total TDs, and 500 rush yards set him up to drop 24.6 fantasy points per game and help dominate your opponents. I have Conner taking a large majority of the carries and earning 280 total touches. The backs behind him are not proven NFL players so I have them getting about 80 carries each which left a ton for Conner. Keaontay Ingram also is not much of a pass catcher so I could see Conner getting some decent work there but I would not be surprised if he lost some of this to Rondale Moore. Let’s not forget, that DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for six games by the NFL. So while his counting stats may look a little low, his PPG numbers are still at a low WR1 level. He could be a value in redraft leagues if he slips too far.

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Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: Carolina Panthers

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Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (off-season edition). What a time of the year. The NFL Draft is officially in the books. Undrafted free agents are getting signed like crazy. And we are approaching the slow season, as teams look to add veteran free agents in this next wave of free agency. As always, we will break down each NFL team one by one. Today is all about the Carolina Panthers. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Julius Chestnut

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Julius came to Sacred Heart as a surprisingly under-recruited freshman despite being an All-Metro First Teamer in Baltimore. He immediately found a home in the backfield and started producing like a seasoned veteran helping lead the Pioneers to Northeast Conference titles in 2018, 2020, and 2021. While there he was a perennial All-American every year since 2019, finishing third in the Walter Payton Award, and was the Rookie of the Year for the NEC in 2018. This guy was a diamond in the rough for the Pioneers and has helped vault them into FCS-postseason playoff contention every year.

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Dynasty Market Sweep: Post-Draft Rookie QB Market Report

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Malik Willis’ draft week freefall finally ended in the third round. By that time, it was too late. Willis’ drastic drop down draft boards caused an aftershock throughout the dynasty community, dropping the value of all rookie picks in Superflex leagues save for the 1.01. Managers reacted by reshaping rookie ADP overnight, forcing nearly every skill position player into first-round value. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Justyn Ross

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After going undrafted and without a deal after the first couple of days during the undrafted free agency period, Ross gets a chance with a Kansas City team that’s overloaded at wide receiver. Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore are locks to make the team. Ross will battle with Josh Gordon and others, including his former teammate Cornell Powell for a roster spot this offseason.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Matt Corral

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As a prospect, Corral is decisive and operates with an excellent release to challenge tight window throws, and possesses the touch to drop in challenging throws in the short to intermediate. His biggest knock as a passer is on his deep ball, which sometimes hits brilliantly but can be inconsistent. He creates run-after-catch opportunities with his pinpoint short-to-intermediate accuracy. Corral is an above-average runner but is currently too cavalier, and he is not built to take the pounding at the next level. Durability and concerns about off-the-field reliability forced his slide in the draft. The Panthers are about the best possible landing spot for Corral, as they have struggled to get consistent play from Sam Darnold. Additionally, Matt Rhule is known as a “players’ coach” who can relate and help get the most out of Corral, and hopefully, keep him on track. The draft capital will force Corral down into the mid-second round of dynasty rookie drafts. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Brian Robinson Jr.

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Brian Robinson Jr. comes to the NFL as a highly-ranked national recruit out of high school and with relatively low tread on the tire, with only one season of extreme usage and production. The major knock on him is that he is a 23-year-old rookie. As a player, what you see is what you get: he is an imposing physical presence at 6’2” and 225 lbs. who will most likely add even more weight and strength at the NFL level. He is limited laterally, but is an effective interior runner and offers added bonus as a competent receiver. In Washington, he will most likely have a short-yardage and goal-line role behind stand-out Antonio Gibson. Gibson has shown he is capable of being an every-down back but battled usage injuries throughout his young career. Robinson Jr. looks to be a late-second to early-third round pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Kevin Austin Jr.

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Kevin Austin Jr. had a quiet collegiate career before the 2021 season. He missed time with a broken foot and a team suspension that was due to violating team rules. The violations were never disclosed. He then broke out during the 2021 season, as he hauled in 48 receptions for 888 yards and seven touchdowns, leading the Fighting Irish in nearly every receiving category. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Kennedy Brooks

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Scouts praise Brooks’ love for the game. In all three seasons playing for the Sooners, he topped 1,000 yards rushing every year. In his 37 games played at the collegiate level, Brooks produced 3,320 rushing yards, which lands him ninth all-time in Oklahoma football history. He ended his impressive career as the Alamo Bowl Offensive MVP after scampering for 142 yards and three touchdowns on just 14 attempts. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Max Borghi

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Indianapolis welcomes Borghi to a running back room that already includes Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Deon Jackson. Borghi should get a chance at competing for the RB3 spot with Jackson, but let’s be honest here, he won’t see the field much unless injuries to others give him an opportunity. He’s a strong runner, who could find himself with a short-yardage role, but Taylor is possibly the best back in the league at this point. He’s also a great pass-catcher out o the backfield, but even Hines may be one of the best at that feat as well. Don’t bother drafting Borghi in any league formats, but he’s worth a gamble on your taxi squad if you truly believe in him. 

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2022 DFF Draft Coverage: Kevin Harris

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Harris was selected with the 183-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft by the New England Patriots. And this is terrible for his fantasy prospects. He was the second RB drafted by a team that already employs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. So, at best Harris is RB4 on the depth chart and not a guy I have much interest in until very late in fantasy drafts. In the early fifth round he could be a fine pick. But seeing where his value shakes out will be important. I do like to bet on talent over situation and I believe Harris is talented. But this combination of poor draft capital and terrible landing spot has dropped him far out of my top 10 RBs for this class.

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