Dynasty Analytics

jefferson

Which Wide Receivers Can Average 17+ FPPG in 2026?

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to determine the makeup of an elite fantasy football wide receiver. I am looking for wide receivers who average more than 17+ PPR a game, which is about the top 8 each year.

Since 2010, we have had 32 wide receivers with multiple seasons of 17+ PPR. These quarterbacks have accounted for 111 of 138 seasons since 2010. We have had 27 wide receivers only do it once so far. Some of those guys that are still playing and could join the list of 32 are:

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herbert

Which Quarterbacks Can Average 20+ FPPG in 2026?

Dynasty / By /

The goal of this article is to find what the makeup of an elite fantasy football quarterback is. I am looking for quarterbacks who score 20+ PPR a game, which is about the top 6 each year.

Since 2010, we have had 17 quarterbacks with multiple seasons of 20+ PPR. These quarterbacks make up 71/80 seasons since 2010. We have had 9 quarterbacks only do it once so far. Some of those guys that are still playing and could join the list of 17 are: Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and Baker Mayfield.

Now, the list of 17 quarterbacks who have been elite since 2010.

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stewart

“Colossus Jr.” 2026 Final Rookie RB1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year.  Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited. 

The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively. 

You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs. 

Now on to the 2026 class. 

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stribling

“Colossus” 2026 Final Rookie WR1 Analytical Model Rankings

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

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simpson

Projecting Quarterback Success for Dynasty

Dynasty, Rookie / By /

I am trying to help us find ways to avoid the bust at quarterback, especially in rookie drafts. This is the cheapest most of these quarterbacks will ever be, but if you miss on one and spend a first-round pick on them, it could set you back even further.

I am looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and breaking them down into 4 tiers from 2015 to 2025.

I call the 1st tier the “green tier”. These are the quarterbacks who score a 90 or higher in my model and went to a Power 5 school. My model includes a film grade from Lance Zierlein, fantasy points per game in college, and their passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.

There have been 37 quarterbacks drafted since 2015 in the first round, but only 13 ended up in tier 1, the green tier.

Below are the names of those 13 guys.

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bijan

Running Back Fantasy Hit Rate By Rounds

Dynasty, Strategy Content / By /

Welcome back for another edition of Hit Rate by Rounds. In today’s article, we’ll be focusing on the running back position. The goal of this article is to see whether draft capital has become a stronger predictor of fantasy production for running backs over the past 14 seasons. I split the data into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because RBs typically take a couple of years to produce. Adding rookies to the equation would skew the numbers too much in favor of the older group.  The charts below show the hit rate for running backs drafted in each round (1–7), measuring what percentage went on to post at least one Top-12, Top-24, or Top-36 fantasy season. This gives us a sense of how likely a back is to deliver meaningful fantasy value based on draft capital. Looking at Round 1, the same number of running backs have been drafted in Round 1 in both groups, but the success rates have decreased. It has become harder to identify elite first-round running backs in recent years. Rd 1 RB Total Top 12 Top 24 Top 36 2011 – 2017 9 = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% 2018 – 2024 9 = 6/9 = 67% = 7/9 = 78% = 8/9 = 89% 2011 – 2024 18 = 14/18 = 78% = 15/18 = 83% = 16/18 = 89% Looking at Round 2, fewer running backs have been drafted in Round 2 recently, and the hit rates […]

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bell

2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 10 to 6

Dynasty, Ranking, Rookie / By /

The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. 

These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career. 

You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here.

You can find the running back RB1 model here.

For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.

The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find the 2025 model here and the 2024 model here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Even the NFL had Harrison higher, as Nabers was drafted behind Harrison in the NFL Draft. Here is the WR1 model I published in 2023, featuring Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1. The WR1 model is exceptional at identifying the true elite wide receivers. 17 of the 20 top-scoring prospects with at least three years in the NFL have had a top-24 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season.

Fourteen of the 20 have also had a top-12 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season. Nine have had multiple top 12 seasons, including perennial top-5 studs like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.

So let’s dive into the 2026 class overall WR1 Model Score.

10. Chris Bell, Louisville | WR1 Model Score: 24.0

Based on historical comps, Chris Bell’s WR1 Model score of 24.0 gives him an 35.8% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.

Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:

Adonai Mitchell
Malik Washington
Kyle Williams

The Good

Bell posted a very impressive weighted dominator (team share of receiving yards and touchdowns) of 38.2%. This ranked 3rd among wide receivers in this draft class. Louisville was not a prolific passing offense

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Draft or Pass: Jameson Williams

Dynasty / By /

Jameson Williams is one of the most intriguing prospects in the ’22 class. Williams tore his ACL in January but had an incredible season for Alabama before being named as a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, which is awarded to the nation’s most outstanding WR in college. His incredible speed was displayed every weekend, regularly gashing opponents for chunk gains and long touchdowns, whether through the air or the return game, finishing his junior season with 79 catches for 1572 yards and 15 TDs. The only hole in his statistical profile is that he essentially did nothing until he got to Bama; with Ohio State, he totaled just 15 catches for 266 yards and 3 TDs in his first two seasons combined. Jameson offers a skill set that is required on every single NFL roster, his field-stretching ability could change the potential of an offense as well as possibly elevate other players around him, but I don’t think his stats will be a good representation of his value for the team that drafts him. 

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